# Western Bulldogs v Richmond — AFL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 105 – 48 Richmond

_Western Bulldogs muzzle Richmond._

Half time: 46 – 15 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 75% / Richmond 25% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 25 July, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Aaron Naughton (6' Tipped ⚡), Rhylee West (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ed Richards (33' ×2), Sam Davidson (43'), Jordan Croft (54' Tipped ⚡), Josh Dolan (64'), Cody Weightman (65' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Arthur Jones (64' Tipped ⚡), Cooper Hynes (67'), Tim English (70'), Marcus Bontempelli (82' ×2 Tipped ⚡) · Richmond: Mykelti Lefau (5' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Tom Lynch (13' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Lalor (62'), Rhyan Mansell (86'), Tim Taranto (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 75% | Won |
| Richmond | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 31.6 predicted → 57 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 20, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 July 2026, 07:11 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 10:21 pm_

Western Bulldogs 105–48 Richmond in AFL Round 20 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Richmond's search for form continued at Marvel Stadium, but brief glimmers weren't enough to prevent a hefty defeat. They contested well in the hit-outs, edging the Western Bulldogs 40 to 36, and matched them tackle for tackle. But those moments of parity didn't translate to lasting advantage. The Tigers couldn't break through the Bulldogs' defensive wall, trailing far behind in inside 50s at 61 to their 39.

At quarter time, the teams were neck and neck, proving Richmond's initial fight. Yet, from there, it became a tale of missed opportunities. By half time, Richmond had only managed to add a single point to their tally while the Bulldogs surged away. They found themselves looking squarely at a 31-point deficit, unable to counter the Bulldogs' control in contested possessions, which resulted in 127 against their 111.

The midfield battle, where Richmond were expected to have an edge, turned into a Bulldogs' triumph instead. The Bulldogs' disposal count of 404 outshone Richmond's 372. Their composure and efficiency shone through, with a disposal efficiency of 77.5%, just pipping Richmond's 76.6%. With the Bulldogs' defence rated significantly higher, the Tigers struggled, falling short of the expected midfield dominance.

Richmond's forwards couldn't capitalise on their chances either. Managing only five marks inside 50, they were left watching the Bulldogs secure a comfortable 20 in their own forward territory. The scoreboard at three-quarter time, Bulldogs 73, Richmond 35, painted a clear picture of a team in charge.

For the Bulldogs, this was a day when their strengths, predicted to hold firm pre-match, translated directly onto the field. While the model projected a 31.6-point margin, the Bulldogs' eventual 57-point victory exceeded expectations. They not only improved defensively but made Richmond's attempts at goal a mere whimper.

In terms of recent form, the Tigers entered with five consecutive losses, and this contest did little to stop the bleeding. Their average score of 61.8 points over the last five matches highlights a persistent offensive frailty, further exposed by the Bulldogs' superior defence.

The Bulldogs, meanwhile, reaffirmed their growing momentum with a third win in five. Averaging 73 points leading into the game, they not only bettered that number but held Richmond to 48, well under their average concession of 82 points.

In the end, Alphr's model got the win probability right, pegging the Bulldogs at a 75% chance of taking it, but missed slightly on the expected margin. With a combined score of 153, the game concluded 15 points below the model's projection. A minor misstep on the margin, but a convincing confirmation that Richmond need to regroup quickly.

Wins and misses, all of it. Richmond now face the task of piecing together what went wrong, whilst the Bulldogs can build on this comprehensive display.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 17 | 29 | 27 | 32 | 105 |
| Richmond | 15 | 0 | 20 | 13 | 48 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **404** | Disposals | 372 |
| **127** | Contested poss. | 111 |
| **37** | Clearances | 35 |
| **61** | Inside 50s | 39 |
| **127** | Marks | 122 |
| **20** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| 55 | Tackles | 55 |
| 36 | Hit-outs | **40** |
| **67** | Intercepts | 59 |
| **77.5%** | Disposal eff. | 76.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 31.6 but the actual margin was 57 points. The game's 153 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 168. Western Bulldogs led 46–15 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 57. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 173.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.08 (edge -17.2%) — model probability 75.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +41.5 @ $1.92 (edge +9.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 32 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Western Bulldogs here: 75% to see off Richmond. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Western Bulldogs sit 449 ELO points clear, 1544 to 1096. Form leans Western Bulldogs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Richmond.

Western Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Western Bulldogs by 31.6, with the two sides combining for about 168. Western Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 73.0pts | Avg Score | 61.8pts |
| 82.0pts | Avg Conceded | 97.2pts |
| -9.0pts | Avg Margin | -35.4pts |
| 342.8 | Disposals | 336.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 58.0 | Tackles | 46.2 |
| 39.6 | Clearances | 34.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | R14 L · R15 W · R17 L · R18 W · R19 W | 73.0 |
| Richmond | R15 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 L | 61.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 128 · 156 | 116 · 185 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 85/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.2/g | 15.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.8/g | 7.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.3% | 69.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 62 · 54 | 31 · 76 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 111/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.2/g | 18.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.6% | 70.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 13 · 14 | 19 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.5/g | 12.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.6% | 78.8% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 5/g (lg 3.85) +30% · Rucks 0.67/g (lg 0.52) +29% · Midfielders 3.02/g (lg 2.46) +23%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.52) +4% · Key Forwards 3.98/g (lg 3.85) +3% · Midfielders 2.46/g (lg 2.46) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 41 in 18g | 20/10g (2·3·2·1·1·2·2·1·5·1) | 21/8g | 166/88g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 6' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 25 in 18g | 13/10g (1·1·2·1·2·0·1·0·2·3) | 15/12g | 165/144g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 82' 88' |
| – | Arthur Jones | FWD | 16 in 13g | 12/10g (1·0·2·1·1·2·1·2·1·1) | 0/2g | 15/17g | 61% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 13 in 17g | 9/10g (1·0·3·2·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/8g | 40/79g | 60% | — | 🏉 33' 77' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 13 in 17g | 12/10g (2·2·2·2·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 5/4g | 56/52g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 49' |
| – | Jordan Croft | KF | 11 in 13g | 10/10g (1·2·1·0·3·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 6/8g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 11/30g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 24/89g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 9/13g | 35% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 3/8g | 34/58g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 48/79g | 32% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 4 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/41g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 6/11g | 38/54g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 11/16g | 38% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 26% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 10/29g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Cody Weightman | FWD | 1 in 5g | 6/10g (2·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 66/35g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' 72' |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 45/126g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 11/31g | 16% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/35g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jedd Busslinger | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Michael Sellwood | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Coffield | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/31g | 2% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 16 in 16g | 9/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 59' |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 14 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 9/7g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (2·0·1·1·3·2·2·0·0·1) | 27/13g | 64/28g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 80' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 11 in 16g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·4·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 11/19g | 40% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 9 in 8g | 11/10g (2·0·2·1·0·2·1·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 76% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Sam Cumming | MID | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 59% | — | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 7 in 5g | 12/10g (0·1·2·1·1·2·3·2·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/9g | 70% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 8/15g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/7g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/10g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/27g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/9g | 4/23g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 10/27g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 5/35g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/4g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Zane Peucker | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Kye Annand | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/24g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | 28.5 | $1.92 | 58% | 29 ✗ |
| Ed Richards | 26.5 | $1.93 | 59% | 32 ✗ |
| Ryley Sanders | 24.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 15 ✓ |
| Tom Liberatore | 23.5 | $1.93 | 39% | 23 ✓ |
| Bailey Williams ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 26 ✗ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 21.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 18 ✓ |
| Tim English | 16.5 | $1.89 | 56% | 13 ✓ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 26.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 25 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 22.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 26 ✗ |
| Jayden Short | 22.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 26 ✗ |
| Dion Prestia | 20.5 | $1.90 | 43% | 24 ✗ |
| Seth Campbell | 17.5 | $1.77 | 61% | 10 ✓ |
| Patrick Retschko | 17.5 | $2.00 | 34% | 17 ✓ |
| Toby Nankervis | 16.5 | $1.94 | 47% | 17 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 16.5 | $1.96 | 53% | 27 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Western Bulldogs 1544 · Richmond 1096 · ELO difference: 449 in favour of Western Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Western Bulldogs | Richmond | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1131 (best 1225) | 1169 (best 1357) | Richmond +37 |
| Forwards | 1065 (best 1365) | 978 (best 1147) | Western Bulldogs +87 |
| Defence | 1260 (best 1513) | 1098 (best 1295) | Western Bulldogs +162 |
| Ruck | 1373 (best 1373) | 1169 (best 1169) | Western Bulldogs +204 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Western Bulldogs |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Richmond |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Western Bulldogs |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Western Bulldogs |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Western Bulldogs |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Western Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 32 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 12:21 UTC (latest tip update)