# North Melbourne v St Kilda — AFL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 62 – 93 St Kilda

_St Kilda see off North Melbourne._

Half time: 34 – 38 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 33% / St Kilda 67% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 26 July, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Paul Curtis (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harry Sheezel (40'), Matt Whitlock (45' Tipped ⚡), Jack Darling (53' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Larkey (73' Tipped ⚡) · St Kilda: Hugh Boxshall (3' 1st), Anthony Caminiti (21'), Jack Higgins (24' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Owens (35' ×2), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (72' ×4), Darcy Wilson (85'), Liam Ryan (77' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 67% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 16.8 predicted → 31 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne vs St Kilda Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 20, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 July 2026, 07:11 pm · Last updated: 26 July 2026, 06:01 pm_

North Melbourne 62–93 St Kilda in AFL Round 20 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Clearances were the key at Marvel Stadium, where St Kilda defeated North Melbourne 93–62. St Kilda's 41 to 23 advantage in clearances set the stage for their win. This dominance in the midfield translated possession into attack, leading directly to their scoreboard success.

St Kilda took an early lead, finishing the first quarter ahead 27–11. By halftime, they maintained a slim four-point lead, 38–34. The third quarter saw them extend their lead to 67–54. St Kilda's ability to convert clearances into scoring opportunities was evident throughout the match.

North Melbourne excelled in marking, particularly inside 50, with 20 marks compared to St Kilda’s 10. However, they struggled to convert these opportunities into scores. Their forward line lacked the necessary impact, often appearing disconnected from the midfield. St Kilda's defence managed to repel North's advances effectively, maintaining control where it mattered most.

In disposals, St Kilda led with 404 to North Melbourne's 366. This possession advantage allowed St Kilda to control the game's pace. They also had 58 inside-50s compared to North's 44, demonstrating their attacking intent. When St Kilda moved forward, they did so with purpose, as reflected in the numbers.

The midfield battle was crucial, with St Kilda asserting their authority. Despite North Melbourne's higher midfield rating, they couldn't translate their pre-match strength into on-field dominance. St Kilda's midfield was relentless, frequently winning clearances and setting up scoring plays.

Defensively, St Kilda's strength was evident. Despite North Melbourne's superior ruck rating, the hit-out count was close, 24 to 23. St Kilda's pre-match defence rating of 1243 was justified, as they effectively nullified North's forward advances.

The pre-match model predicted a St Kilda win by 16.8 points with a 67% probability, but the actual margin was 31 points. North Melbourne's recent form of two wins and three losses continued, with their average points scored (73) and conceded (73.4) reflecting a consistent but insufficient performance. St Kilda matched their average score and maintained their defensive record, reinforcing their control over the game.

Ultimately, it wasn't just about possession. It was about how each team used it, and St Kilda did more. They turned clearances into points and points into victory. The numbers supported the outcome: effective midfield use and the ability to exploit clearances gave St Kilda the winning edge.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 11 | 23 | 20 | 8 | 62 |
| St Kilda | 27 | 11 | 29 | 26 | 93 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 366 | Disposals | **404** |
| 100 | Contested poss. | **139** |
| 23 | Clearances | **41** |
| 44 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| **127** | Marks | 102 |
| **20** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| 33 | Tackles | **44** |
| **24** | Hit-outs | 23 |
| **59** | Intercepts | 56 |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 67% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.8 but the actual margin was 31 points. St Kilda led 34–38 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 31. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.50 (edge +0.2%) — model probability 66.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +4.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 17 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Kilda here: 67% to see off North Melbourne. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Kilda sit 126 ELO points clear, 1460 to 1335. Form leans St Kilda's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for North Melbourne.

St Kilda own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. The margin model has St Kilda by 16.8, with the two sides combining for about 168. St Kilda to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| North Melbourne | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 73.0pts | Avg Score | 87.2pts |
| 73.4pts | Avg Conceded | 79.2pts |
| -0.4pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 372.8 | Disposals | 409.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 55.6 | Tackles | 59.8 |
| 32.4 | Clearances | 37.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | R15 W · R16 W · R17 L · R18 L · R19 L | 73.0 |
| St Kilda | R14 W · R15 L · R17 W · R18 W · R19 L | 87.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 161 · 156 | 150 · 160 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 4.6/g |
| Disposals | 94/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.8/g | 17.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.6/g | 8.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.4% | 68.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 41 · 65 | 56 · 48 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 148/g | 154/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.3/g | 23.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.3% | 70.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 13 · 18 | 26 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.2/g | 11/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.9% | 79.8% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.63/g (lg 2.46) +7% · Key Forwards 3.97/g (lg 3.85) +3% · Forwards 4.22/g (lg 4.48) -6%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.7/g (lg 0.52) +35% · Key Forwards 5.16/g (lg 3.85) +34% · Defenders 1.41/g (lg 1.07) +32%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 36 in 18g | 14/10g (0·1·2·1·4·1·1·1·3·0) | 19/8g | 144/68g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 28 in 15g | 21/10g (6·2·1·1·3·2·0·0·3·3) | 3/5g | 68/43g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 75' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 26 in 17g | 18/10g (2·1·3·1·4·0·2·2·1·2) | 30/17g | 74/49g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 84% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' 68' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 25 in 18g | 12/10g (0·1·2·1·1·4·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 19/10g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 10 in 14g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·2) | 3/7g | 13/17g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 9 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/9g | 36/88g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 8 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/8g | 101/72g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 8 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 14/39g | 38% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 17/38g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 5 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/27g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/17g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 26/65g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/31g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/15g | 36/50g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Zac Banch | FWD | 2 in 3g | 3/7g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/31g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Matt Whitlock | KF | 1 in 2g | 2/4g (0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.84 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/50g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Scott | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 17/48g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 30/107g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Harvey | DEF | 0 in 6g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/8g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/28g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Josh Goater | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 28 in 13g | 25/10g (3·1·1·3·5·6·0·2·2·2) | 9/8g | 38/21g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 23 in 12g | 20/10g (2·2·0·4·5·1·1·2·2·1) | 7/7g | 110/71g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 75' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 19 in 18g | 10/10g (1·2·2·0·1·1·0·1·0·2) | 1/1g | 17/22g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 18 in 15g | 9/10g (2·0·3·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 6/5g | 57/50g | 68% | — | 🏉 35' 84' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 15 in 17g | 11/10g (4·1·1·1·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 3/1g | 21/30g | 56% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 12 in 14g | 8/10g (2·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 16/57g | 54% | — | 🏉 72' 79' 88' 66' |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 11 in 15g | 11/10g (1·0·2·0·2·0·2·2·1·1) | 2/7g | 19/38g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 10 in 16g | 7/10g (2·0·0·2·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 18/31g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 9 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 9/16g | 24/92g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 9/24g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 8 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/6g | 87/89g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/2g | 28/39g | 24% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/8g | 32/48g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 7/7g | 70/66g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/49g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 7/49g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/87g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 10/61g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/50g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max King | KF | no games | 14/10g (1·0·1·2·0·3·2·2·3·0) | 6/4g | 71/37g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 81% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 32.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 29 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 26.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 25 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 25.5 | $1.92 | 58% | 24 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 24.5 | $1.93 | 50% | 17 ✓ |
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.83 | 67% | 19 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 29 ✗ |
| Dylan Stephens ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.83 | 65% | 21 ✗ |
| Finn O'Sullivan | 19.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 23 ✗ |
| Bailey Scott ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 92% | 6 ✓ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 28.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 46 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 34 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 18 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilson ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 28 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 25 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 15 ✓ |
| Max Hall ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 67% | 26 ✗ |
| Mason Wood | 17.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 19 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — North Melbourne 1335 · St Kilda 1460 · ELO difference: 126 in favour of St Kilda

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | North Melbourne | St Kilda | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1299 (best 1494) | 1206 (best 1334) | North Melbourne +93 |
| Forwards | 1195 (best 1373) | 1022 (best 1467) | North Melbourne +174 |
| Defence | 1175 (best 1382) | 1243 (best 1486) | St Kilda +68 |
| Ruck | 1384 (best 1384) | 1520 (best 1572) | St Kilda +136 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | St Kilda |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | North Melbourne |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Kilda |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | North Melbourne |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | St Kilda |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | St Kilda |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — St Kilda predicted to win by 17 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-26 08:01 UTC (latest tip update)