# Hawthorn v Essendon — AFL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 132 – 39 Essendon

_Hawthorn put Essendon to the sword._

Half time: 62 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 89% / Essendon 11% · MCG · Sat, 25 July, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Will Day (5' ×2 1st), Jack Ginnivan (7' Tipped ⚡), Jack Gunston (46' ×7 Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (50' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Harry Morrison (60'), Cam Mackenzie (94'), Mabior Chol (80' Tipped ⚡), Jarman Impey (92'), Dylan Moore (95' Tipped ⚡) · Essendon: Peter Wright (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nate Caddy (23' ×3 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 89% | Won |
| Essendon | 11% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 44.3 predicted → 93 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 July 2026, 07:11 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:04 pm_

Hawthorn 132–39 Essendon in AFL Round 20 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hawthorn crushed Essendon 132–39 at the MCG. Our model had Hawthorn winning with 89% certainty, but it didn't predict the sheer scale of the victory. The model expected a 44.3-point margin, but Hawthorn blew past that, winning by 93 points. The predicted total score of 169 was close, just two points off the actual 171. The model nailed the winner but underestimated Hawthorn's dominance.

From the start, Hawthorn showed they meant business. By half-time, they led 62–17. At three-quarter time, the score was 98–24, leaving Essendon with little hope. Hawthorn's midfield was crucial, winning 38 clearances to Essendon's 26. Despite Essendon having a slightly higher midfield strength rating of 1222 to Hawthorn's 1197, Hawthorn's midfielders outperformed on the day.

Hawthorn dominated possession, with 462 disposals to Essendon's 302. Such a disparity makes winning tough. Essendon's disposal efficiency was 70.9%, compared to Hawthorn's 78.3%. This efficiency allowed Hawthorn to attack with precision, going inside 50 a whopping 68 times to Essendon's 36.

Hawthorn's forwards, rated 1298 to Essendon's 1133, were outstanding. They took 18 marks inside 50, double Essendon's 9. This efficiency turned opportunities into points. Defensively, Hawthorn, rated 1428 to Essendon's 1116, held strong. They edged Essendon in intercepts, 67 to 60, stopping many Bomber advances.

Essendon tried to make an impact with 59 tackles to Hawthorn's 47. But tackling is hard when you're chasing the game. Essendon's recent form, with four losses in five games and an average margin of -42.6, highlighted their struggles.

Hawthorn came in hot, winning four of their last five and averaging 104.8 points per game. They exceeded their recent averages, showing their intent to dominate. Essendon's lone win in their last five games hinted at improvement that didn't come.

In the end, Hawthorn didn't just defeat Essendon; they dismantled them. The model's margin prediction was off, but this win showed how dangerous Hawthorn can be when they're on form. It was a complete performance, with the stats backing up their superiority. For Essendon, it's a clear sign of the work they need to do.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 23 | 39 | 36 | 34 | 132 |
| Essendon | 15 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 39 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| **462** | Disposals | 302 |
| **128** | Contested poss. | 102 |
| **38** | Clearances | 26 |
| **68** | Inside 50s | 36 |
| **148** | Marks | 73 |
| **18** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| 47 | Tackles | **59** |
| 29 | Hit-outs | **37** |
| **67** | Intercepts | 60 |
| **78.3%** | Disposal eff. | 70.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 89% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 44.3 but the actual margin was 93 points. Total score prediction of 169 was close to the actual 171, within 3 points. Hawthorn led 62–17 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 93. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.03 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 89.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +53.5 @ $1.90 (edge +9.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 44 · Predicted total: 169

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hawthorn here: 89% to see off Essendon. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hawthorn sit 590 ELO points clear, 1699 to 1109. Form leans Hawthorn's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Essendon.

Hawthorn own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Hawthorn by 44.3, with the two sides combining for about 169. Hawthorn to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hawthorn | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 104.8pts | Avg Score | 58.2pts |
| 79.0pts | Avg Conceded | 100.8pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Margin | -42.6pts |
| 378.4 | Disposals | 343.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 61.8 | Tackles | 44.8 |
| 40.8 | Clearances | 30.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | R15 W · R16 W · R17 L · R18 W · R19 W | 104.8 |
| Essendon | R14 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W | 58.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Essendon lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Essendon | 83 – 145 | Hawthorn | Essendon 74% ✗ |
| 2025 | R1 | Hawthorn | 111 – 85 | Essendon | not priced |
| 2024 | R1 | Essendon | 107 – 83 | Hawthorn | not priced |
| 2023 | R1 | Hawthorn | 65 – 124 | Essendon | not priced |
| 2022 | R8 | Essendon | 108 – 81 | Hawthorn | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 206 · 156 | 99 · 186 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 80/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.1/g | 14.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.1/g | 5.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.5% | 67.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 54 | 58 · 64 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.3/g | 18.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.9% | 74.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 20 · 10 | 24 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 138/g | 146/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.2/g | 12.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.1% | 78.5% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.33/g (lg 4.46) +20% · Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.08) +11% · Key Forwards 4.17/g (lg 3.85) +8%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.48) -3% · Forwards 4.16/g (lg 4.46) -7% · Key Forwards 3.42/g (lg 3.85) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 44 in 16g | 28/10g (2·2·3·3·2·2·3·3·3·5) | 7/3g | 56/27g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' 72' 94' |
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 40 in 12g | 31/10g (4·3·3·5·0·6·5·1·3·1) | 33/15g | 250/125g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 48' 54' 78' 80' 84' 91' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 30 in 18g | 17/10g (1·2·1·3·0·1·2·1·1·5) | 1/2g | 73/40g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 82% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 24 in 13g | 19/10g (2·0·1·2·3·2·2·5·1·1) | 8/6g | 50/39g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 80' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 18 in 18g | 9/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·2·3·0) | 15/8g | 71/57g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 17 in 17g | 9/10g (0·2·1·0·0·4·0·0·2·0) | 13/8g | 60/61g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.51 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 95' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 14 in 18g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 36/47g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 9 in 18g | 9/10g (0·0·4·4·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 12/86g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 6 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 15/50g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 5 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 15/32g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 10/35g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Will Day | MID | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 1/6g | 6/30g | 40% | — | 🏉 5' 25' |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 3 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/5g | 4/38g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 9/34g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/25g | 16% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 12/53g | 24% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/14g | 16/74g | 14% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 32/88g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 4/32g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Noah Mraz | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Greeves | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/29g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 32 in 17g | 17/10g (2·2·2·2·1·1·2·3·2·0) | 1/2g | 16/17g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 69' 70' |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 16 in 13g | 13/10g (1·1·1·0·2·3·0·1·3·1) | 15/9g | 54/36g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 68' |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 9 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 4/4g | 15/37g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Sullivan Robey | FWD | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 9 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 7/16g | 36/85g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·1·0·2·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 8/9g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Hussien El Achkar | FWD | 7 in 6g | 7/6g (1·0·2·1·2·1) | 1/1g | 4/3g | 83% | — | — |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 0/8g | 3/23g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Dyson Sharp | FWD | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 2/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 8/48g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Nik Cox | FWD | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/19g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 6/59g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/35g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/15g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Max Kondogiannis | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/14g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Artemis | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/35g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 26.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 28 ✗ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 37 ✗ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.91 | 72% | 26 ✗ |
| Josh Ward | 23.5 | $1.83 | 53% | 33 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 22.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 24 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 22.5 | $1.92 | 55% | 27 ✗ |
| Josh Battle | 22.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 21 ✓ |
| Will Day | 22.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Cam Mackenzie | 21.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 23 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 20 ✓ |
| Blake Hardwick ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 68% | 22 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $2.00 | 61% | 23 ✗ |
| Harry Morrison | 19.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 26 ✗ |
| Josh Weddle | 17.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 19 ✗ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 28.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 22 ✓ |
| Archie Roberts | 27.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 21 ✓ |
| Sam Durham | 23.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 14 ✓ |
| Dyson Sharp ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.76 | 74% | 21 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath | 18.5 | $1.77 | 50% | 20 ✗ |
| Sullivan Robey ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 12 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 18.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 19 ✗ |
| Jacob Farrow | 17.5 | $1.94 | 53% | 21 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hawthorn 1699 · Essendon 1109 · ELO difference: 590 in favour of Hawthorn

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Hawthorn | Essendon | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1197 (best 1325) | 1222 (best 1484) | Essendon +24 |
| Forwards | 1298 (best 1557) | 1133 (best 1334) | Hawthorn +165 |
| Defence | 1428 (best 1600) | 1116 (best 1346) | Hawthorn +312 |
| Ruck | 1370 (best 1370) | 1062 (best 1062) | Hawthorn +309 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Hawthorn |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Essendon |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hawthorn |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Hawthorn |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Hawthorn |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Hawthorn |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 89%** — Hawthorn predicted to win by 44 points · Predicted total: 169 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:04 UTC (latest tip update)