# Hawthorn v Essendon — AFL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Hawthorn v Essendon
Sat, 25 July, 04:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 20

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.03 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 89.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +53.5 @ $1.90 (edge +9.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 44 · Predicted total: 169

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hawthorn | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 104.8pts | Avg Score | 58.2pts |
| 79.0pts | Avg Conceded | 100.8pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Margin | -42.6pts |
| 378.4 | Disposals | 343.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 61.8 | Tackles | 44.8 |
| 40.8 | Clearances | 30.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | R15 W · R16 W · R17 L · R18 W · R19 W | 104.8 |
| Essendon | R14 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W | 58.2 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:04 UTC (latest tip update)