# Fremantle v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 112 – 42 West Coast Eagles

_Fremantle put West Coast Eagles to the sword._

Half time: 40 – 32 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 91% / West Coast Eagles 9% · Optus Stadium · Fri, 24 July, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Patrick Voss (7' Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (15' Tipped ⚡), Jye Amiss (31' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Nathan ODriscoll (60'), Isaiah Dudley (64' Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (68'), Michael Frederick (76' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (33m 57s)Nathan ODriscoll (59'), Sam Switkowski (60'), Shai Bolton (66'), Mason Cox (79'), Luke Jackson (89' Tipped ⚡) · West Coast Eagles: Hamish Davis (5' 1st), Tom Cole (9'), Jack Williams (26' ×2), Jake Waterman (87' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 91% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 9% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 55.8 predicted → 70 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 July 2026, 07:11 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 10:49 pm_

Fremantle 112–42 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 20 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle thumped the West Coast Eagles 112–42 at Optus Stadium. A 70-point margin might seem decisive, but the numbers reveal an even more one-sided contest. Fremantle dominated the ruck, winning 50 hit-outs to West Coast's 27, setting the tone for their control throughout the game.

The midfield battle was similarly lopsided. Fremantle's midfielders, rated higher before the match, lived up to expectations. They secured 127 contested possessions against West Coast’s 105. This midfield dominance translated into 37 clearances compared to the Eagles’ 30. Fremantle's ability to press forward was evident with 52 inside 50s to West Coast's 35, highlighting their command over the game's flow.

At half-time, Fremantle led 40-32, suggesting a closer contest. However, the third quarter saw Fremantle extend their lead to 72-40. In the final term, they added another 40 points while the Eagles managed just 2. Fremantle's defence was tight, with 57 intercepts, further stifling West Coast's efforts.

The disparity was clear in marks inside 50: Fremantle had 14 to West Coast’s 7. Although the Eagles took more total marks, 116 to Fremantle’s 87, they failed to convert these into effective forward play. Despite having slightly more disposals, 375 to Fremantle's 370, the Eagles couldn't match Fremantle's 77.8% disposal efficiency.

Fremantle's pre-match ratings highlighted their stronger positions, especially in the forward line, rated at 1187 compared to West Coast’s 833. This advantage was evident, particularly in the final quarter. Despite West Coast's stronger defensive rating on paper, it didn't translate on the field.

Recent form favoured Fremantle, who had won four of their last five games, while the Eagles were winless in their last five. Fremantle's average score of 96.2 points overshadowed the Eagles’ 70, and their defensive average of 75.2 was superior to West Coast’s 93.8.

Our model had Fremantle as strong favourites with a 91% probability of winning. It predicted a 55.8 point margin, which Fremantle surpassed with the actual 70-point difference. While the margin prediction was off, all four model predictions for the match were correct.

Ultimately, Fremantle did more than just secure a win. They demonstrated why they were highly rated, outplaying an Eagles side still searching for solutions. A commanding performance, both statistically and on the field.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 18 | 22 | 32 | 40 | 112 |
| West Coast Eagles | 19 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 42 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 370 | Disposals | **375** |
| **127** | Contested poss. | 105 |
| **37** | Clearances | 30 |
| **52** | Inside 50s | 35 |
| 87 | Marks | **116** |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **57** | Tackles | 46 |
| **50** | Hit-outs | 27 |
| **57** | Intercepts | 50 |
| **77.8%** | Disposal eff. | 77.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 91% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 55.8 but the actual margin was 70 points. Fremantle led 40–32 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 70. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.06 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 91.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -43.5 @ $1.89 (edge +12.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 56 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Fremantle here: 91% to see off West Coast Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Fremantle sit 680 ELO points clear, 1832 to 1151. Form leans Fremantle's way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for West Coast Eagles.

Fremantle own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Fremantle by 55.8, with the two sides combining for about 168. Fremantle to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 96.2pts | Avg Score | 70.0pts |
| 75.2pts | Avg Conceded | 93.8pts |
| 21.0pts | Avg Margin | -23.8pts |
| 375.0 | Disposals | 315.6 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 55.6 | Tackles | 58.4 |
| 32.6 | Clearances | 34.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | R15 W · R16 W · R17 L · R18 W · R19 W | 96.2 |
| West Coast Eagles | R14 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 L | 70.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Fremantle lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | West Coast Eagles | 41 – 97 | Fremantle | Fremantle 53% ✓ |
| 2025 | R20 | Fremantle | 126 – 77 | West Coast Eagles | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | West Coast Eagles | 68 – 106 | Fremantle | not priced |
| 2024 | R20 | Fremantle | 110 – 75 | West Coast Eagles | not priced |
| 2024 | R6 | West Coast Eagles | 105 – 68 | Fremantle | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 182 · 132 | 104 · 179 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 74/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.9/g | 11.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.2/g | 7.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.8% | 69.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 73 · 37 | 55 · 61 |
| Goal Assists | 5.4/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 166/g | 129/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.3/g | 23.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.6% | 67.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 10 | 14 · 22 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.9/g | 12.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 84.1% | 80.4% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Midfielders 3.42/g (lg 2.48) +38% · Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.52) +33% · Forwards 5.34/g (lg 4.46) +20%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.15/g (lg 4.46) -7% · Key Forwards 3.38/g (lg 3.85) -12% · Midfielders 2.11/g (lg 2.48) -15%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 44 in 18g | 25/10g (2·2·2·3·4·2·0·3·4·3) | 10/7g | 87/52g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 43 in 18g | 26/10g (3·2·4·4·2·3·1·1·2·4) | 19/7g | 81/48g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' 46' 50' 70' 74' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 33 in 17g | 26/10g (1·5·3·4·4·2·2·2·2·1) | 7/3g | 37/25g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 20 in 18g | 9/10g (1·1·2·1·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 3/3g | 20/19g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 20 in 18g | 13/10g (0·1·0·1·3·3·2·2·0·1) | 8/9g | 47/51g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 89' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 19 in 13g | 16/10g (3·1·1·0·2·0·4·0·2·3) | 17/10g | 77/64g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 16 in 17g | 7/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 18/11g | 42/32g | 64% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 11 in 18g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 19/23g | 64% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 10 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 41/63g | 40% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 7 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 5/33g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 6 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 28/75g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 5 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 34/98g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 7/39g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 13/9g | 13/14g | 24% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 10/62g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 10/27g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/47g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 1/13g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 3/70g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/28g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/28g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 2/99g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/12g | 12% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 40 in 18g | 25/10g (3·3·1·3·3·3·0·3·1·5) | 19/9g | 119/69g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 84% ✓ Scored | 🏉 87' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 26 in 18g | 17/10g (0·1·2·1·1·3·1·3·2·3) | 0/2g | 24/15g | 81% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 13 in 18g | 7/10g (1·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 6/5g | 21/31g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 13 in 17g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 9/9g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 12 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·3·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/17g | 27/67g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 22/50g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/12g | 5/72g | 22% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/12g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 5 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/50g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Johnston | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Milan Murdock | FWD | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 75% | — | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/4g | 20/25g | 56% | — | 🏉 26' 52' |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 6% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/30g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 24/72g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/15g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 4/91g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Herbert | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Francou | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.78 | 76% | 25 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 26.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 25 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.80 | 71% | 18 ✓ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 68% | 26 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 76% | 29 ✗ |
| Karl Worner | 19.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 16 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 19.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 21 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark | 19.5 | $2.00 | 48% | 18 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 14 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 18.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 19 ✗ |
| Corey Wagner | 17.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 14 ✓ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly | 22.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 31 ✗ |
| Harley Reid ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.92 | 63% | 30 ✗ |
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Liam Duggan | 17.5 | $2.00 | 52% | 14 ✓ |
| Willem Duursma | 16.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 19 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Fremantle 1832 · West Coast Eagles 1151 · ELO difference: 680 in favour of Fremantle

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Fremantle | West Coast Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1231 (best 1366) | 1131 (best 1234) | Fremantle +99 |
| Forwards | 1187 (best 1383) | 833 (best 1258) | Fremantle +353 |
| Defence | 1178 (best 1326) | 1233 (best 1426) | West Coast Eagles +55 |
| Ruck | 1129 (best 1161) | 1000 (best 1000) | Fremantle +129 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Fremantle |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Fremantle |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Fremantle |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Fremantle |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Fremantle |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 91%** — Fremantle predicted to win by 56 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 12:49 UTC (latest tip update)