# Carlton v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 110 – 97 Gold Coast SUNS

_Carlton see off Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 49 – 46 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 59% / Gold Coast SUNS 41% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 25 July, 01:05 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Will Hayward (13' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Talor Byrne (16' ×3), Francis Evans (18' ×2), Lewis Young (47'), George Hewett (48' ×3), Patrick Cripps (73'), Mitch McGovern (79' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ben Ainsworth (69' Tipped ⚡) · Gold Coast SUNS: Jed Walter (2' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Bailey Humphrey (4' ×2), Dylan Patterson (8'), Noah Anderson (35'), Joel Jeffrey (54' ×3), Ben King (58' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Beau Addinsall (66'), Ben Long (85' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 59% | Won |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.9 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 July 2026, 07:11 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 03:45 pm_

Carlton 110–97 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 20 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model gave Carlton a 59% chance to win, predicting a modest 6.9-point victory. Carlton exceeded expectations, defeating the Gold Coast SUNS by 13 points, 110–97, at Marvel Stadium. The match was anything but straightforward. Carlton's win came after a tight first half, with the total points reaching 207, well above the model's forecast of 168. This suggests that defences were not as effective as anticipated.

Carlton's dominance was evident in the disposals. They recorded 438 disposals compared to Gold Coast's 321, highlighting their control over the game. This advantage extended to clearances, where Carlton led 39 to 28. The midfield's performance aligned with the model's pre-match strength rating, which had Carlton slightly ahead.

Despite Carlton's midfield dominance, Gold Coast's ruck division won the centre battle with 37 hit-outs to Carlton's 22. However, this did not translate into scoreboard pressure. The SUNS managed 52 inside 50s, but Carlton's pressure and efficiency countered effectively. Carlton had 57 inside 50s, providing their forwards with ample opportunities to score.

Defensively, Carlton held firm. Although the SUNS had more marks inside 50 with 15 compared to Carlton's 13, the Blues compensated with 68 intercepts to Gold Coast's 61. This defensive effort was crucial in stopping the SUNS' advances. Carlton also laid 52 tackles to Gold Coast's 34, showcasing their determination to maintain control.

Pre-match positional strengths showed Carlton's forward line rated at 1258, outmatching Gold Coast's 1203. This advantage was evident on the scoreboard, with Carlton's forwards playing a key role in their victory. Gold Coast's higher defensive rating did not hold up against Carlton's accuracy and supply.

Recent form hinted at today's result. Carlton entered the match with three wins and two losses, while the SUNS were on a losing streak. Carlton's average score over the last five games was 77.4 points, and although they conceded an average of 78.8 points, they tightened their defence against Gold Coast's weaker attack.

The model correctly predicted the winner and was close on the margin, but the high-scoring nature of the game was unexpected. The SUNS couldn't break their winless run, while Carlton showed resilience, especially when it mattered. Overall, the model went three out of four on its predictions for this match, a solid performance.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 22 | 27 | 27 | 34 | 110 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 20 | 26 | 18 | 33 | 97 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **438** | Disposals | 321 |
| **140** | Contested poss. | 111 |
| **39** | Clearances | 28 |
| **57** | Inside 50s | 52 |
| **133** | Marks | 77 |
| 13 | Marks inside 50 | **15** |
| **52** | Tackles | 34 |
| 22 | Hit-outs | **37** |
| **68** | Intercepts | 61 |
| **76.9%** | Disposal eff. | 76.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 6.9 was reasonable against the actual 13-point result. The game's 207 points came in 39 points higher than the predicted 168. Carlton led 49–46 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 13. The model went 3/4 on this match. Carlton covered the 6.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.64 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 59.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -6.5 @ $1.89 (edge +0.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 7 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Carlton are the call at 59%, but Gold Coast SUNS stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Carlton sit 49 ELO points clear, 1430 to 1381. Form leans Carlton's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Gold Coast SUNS.

Carlton own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Carlton by 6.9, with the two sides combining for about 168. Lean Carlton, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Carlton | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 77.4pts | Avg Score | 68.2pts |
| 78.8pts | Avg Conceded | 100.4pts |
| -1.4pts | Avg Margin | -32.2pts |
| 391.6 | Disposals | 378.6 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 61.2 | Tackles | 51.0 |
| 35.2 | Clearances | 34.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 L · R19 L | 77.4 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | R15 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 L | 68.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Carlton lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R22 | Carlton | 74 – 93 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R11 | Carlton | 102 – 73 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2023 | R23 | Gold Coast SUNS | 87 – 91 | Carlton |
| 2023 | R14 | Carlton | 120 – 61 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2022 | R4 | Gold Coast SUNS | 92 – 62 | Carlton |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 146 · 150 | 178 · 160 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 5.5/g |
| Disposals | 104/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.8/g | 23.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.1/g | 9.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.5% | 67.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 49 · 64 | 31 · 59 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposals | 141/g | 106/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.2/g | 17.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.1/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 70.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 15 | 20 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 144/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.4/g | 13.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.8% | 83.6% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Midfielders 2.56/g (lg 2.47) +4% · Forwards 4.61/g (lg 4.45) +4% · Defenders 1.11/g (lg 1.08) +3%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.66/g (lg 0.52) +27% · Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.08) +17% · Forwards 4.6/g (lg 4.45) +3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 28 in 18g | 12/10g (3·0·2·0·0·0·2·1·2·2) | 7/5g | 21/37g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' 77' |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 25 in 18g | 11/10g (0·1·2·2·2·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/3g | 13/20g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 19 in 18g | 10/10g (2·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 20/26g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 15 in 17g | 12/10g (3·0·2·3·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 12/10g | 42/31g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' 51' 83' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 12 in 18g | 9/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 12/16g | 51/75g | 52% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 11 in 16g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·2·1·0·0) | 5/2g | 9/8g | 46% | — | 🏉 18' 88' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 9 in 14g | 8/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·2·2·0·0) | 4/11g | 14/46g | 42% | — | 🏉 48' 84' 72' |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 9 in 13g | 8/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·3·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 48% | — | 🏉 16' 38' 77' |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 6 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/23g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 11/46g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 8/32g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 4/4g | 12/25g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 11/46g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 10/29g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 28/72g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/31g | 10% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 1/30g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wade Derksen | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 48 in 18g | 20/10g (4·1·1·4·3·1·1·3·1·1) | 12/7g | 42/19g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' 89' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 23 in 13g | 17/10g (0·3·3·2·1·2·2·1·3·0) | 0/1g | 8/7g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' 64' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 22 in 16g | 13/10g (2·0·0·2·2·0·4·0·2·1) | 6/7g | 33/53g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 85' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 22 in 16g | 10/10g (1·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·2) | 17/13g | 28/21g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 58% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 14 in 15g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·3·1·1) | 2/4g | 5/11g | 54% | — | 🏉 4' 60' |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 13 in 18g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·1·2·0·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 53% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/19g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 10/30g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 7/19g | 28% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/13g | 20% | — | 🏉 54' 65' 82' |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 4/18g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/19g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 12/26g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Patterson | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 5/11g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Beau Addinsall | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Caleb Lewis | KF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Ballard | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/18g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jai Murray | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/23g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 31 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $2.00 | 63% | 30 ✗ |
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.90 | 77% | 24 ✓ |
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.80 | 70% | 31 ✗ |
| Nic Newman | 22.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 2 ✓ |
| Oliver Florent ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 25 ✗ |
| Blake Acres | 20.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 21 ✗ |
| Billy Wilson ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.91 | 72% | 24 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra | 19.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 20 ✗ |
| Ben Ainsworth | 17.5 | $1.80 | 61% | 19 ✗ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 30 ✗ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.92 | 67% | 19 ✓ |
| John Noble | 24.5 | $1.80 | 58% | 18 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 28 ✗ |
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 26 ✗ |
| Bodhi Uwland | 22.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 16 ✓ |
| Zeke Uwland ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 80% | 9 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli | 19.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 18 ✓ |
| Wil Powell ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 13 ✓ |
| Mac Andrew | 17.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 16 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Carlton 1430 · Gold Coast SUNS 1381 · ELO difference: 49 in favour of Carlton

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Carlton | Gold Coast SUNS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1289 (best 1481) | 1277 (best 1408) | Carlton +12 |
| Forwards | 1258 (best 1388) | 1203 (best 1464) | Carlton +55 |
| Defence | 1234 (best 1438) | 1276 (best 1467) | Gold Coast SUNS +42 |
| Ruck | 1228 (best 1228) | 1241 (best 1241) | Gold Coast SUNS +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Carlton |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Carlton |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Carlton |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Carlton |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Carlton predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 05:45 UTC (latest tip update)