# Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 126 – 67 Port Adelaide

_Brisbane Lions devour Port Adelaide._

Half time: 38 – 29 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 72% / Port Adelaide 28% · Gabba · Sun, 26 July, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Kai Lohmann (8' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Zac Bailey (16' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Cam Rayner (46' ×2), Logan Morris (53' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Charlie Cameron (72' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Sam Draper (88'), Will Ashcroft (93'), Final quarter (30m 4s)Logan Morris (63'), Hugh McCluggage (69'), Eric Hipwood (71') · Port Adelaide: Todd Marshall (18' ×2), Mitch Georgiades (22' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Corey Durdin (37' Tipped ⚡), Dante Visentini (43' ×2), Jason Horne-Francis (73' Tipped ⚡), Jase Burgoyne (83')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 72% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 16.4 predicted → 59 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 July 2026, 07:11 pm · Last updated: 26 July 2026, 03:53 pm_

Brisbane Lions 126–67 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 20 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions' second half surge turned a tight contest into a blowout, steamrolling Port Adelaide 126 to 67 at Gabba. The Lions extended a slender 38–29 lead at half time to 81–52 by the third quarter. From there, they dominated the final term to secure a 59-point victory.

By three-quarter time, the Lions had gathered momentum. They were relentless, building on their lead with every mark and possession. Finishing with 413 disposals against Port Adelaide's 322, the Lions controlled the ball masterfully. Port Adelaide's ruckmen did their part, winning the hit-out count 44 to 25. Yet, the Lions’ ball use efficiency at 75.8% outshone their opponent’s 69.3%, making each possession count.

While Port Adelaide’s ruck division found success, it wasn’t enough to halt Brisbane’s forward march. The Lions were clinical with their entries into the attacking 50, going inside 50 a total of 63 times compared to Port's 45. The Lions made those opportunities matter with 19 marks inside the forward 50, slightly edging out Port’s 17.

Midfield dominance played a significant role for the Lions, illustrated by their possession statistics. High marks, 133 compared to Port Adelaide's 74, highlighted their ability to not only maintain the ball under pressure but also find critical space consistently. Their midfield strength rating of 1316 to Port's 1224 predicted their command in this area.

Brisbane's defensive efforts were no less impressive, with 56 tackles applied. Port Adelaide only managed 43, a clear indicator of Brisbane's intent to apply pressure and restrict movement. This relentless defensive work inhibited Port Adelaide's ability to convert any possession advantage into meaningful scoring opportunities.

The Lions’ recent form signalled their potential for explosive scoring bursts, having averaged 121.2 points across their last five. True to form, they outperformed their recent average and surpassed Alphr's predicted total combined points of 168, posting a match total of 193. Despite the pre-match model favouring Brisbane with a 72% win probability, the actual result stretched the predicted 16.4-point margin significantly.

Port Adelaide's sporadic form coming into the game, reflected in their last-five record of two wins and three losses, was an ominous sign. Their average points scored of 74 paled in comparison to Brisbane's standard, a concern that materialised fully by the final siren. The positive takeaway for Port was competing closely in initial stages, only trailing by 9 points at the half.

In the end, the Lions’ superior efficiency and pressure applied throughout the second half sealed Port Adelaide’s fate. Brisbane's win was a testament to their current surge in form and one step further in demonstrating why their recent performances are backed by numbers, not just gut feel.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 22 | 16 | 43 | 45 | 126 |
| Port Adelaide | 15 | 14 | 23 | 15 | 67 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **413** | Disposals | 322 |
| 121 | Contested poss. | **123** |
| **37** | Clearances | 35 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **133** | Marks | 74 |
| **19** | Marks inside 50 | 17 |
| **56** | Tackles | 43 |
| 25 | Hit-outs | **44** |
| **59** | Intercepts | 55 |
| **75.8%** | Disposal eff. | 69.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 72% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.4 but the actual margin was 59 points. The game's 193 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 168. Brisbane Lions led 38–29 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 59. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.13 (edge -16.2%) — model probability 72.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 16 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Brisbane Lions here: 72% to see off Port Adelaide. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Brisbane Lions sit 341 ELO points clear, 1741 to 1399. Form leans Brisbane Lions' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Port Adelaide.

Brisbane Lions own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Brisbane Lions by 16.4, with the two sides combining for about 168. Brisbane Lions to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 121.2pts | Avg Score | 74.0pts |
| 78.4pts | Avg Conceded | 78.2pts |
| 42.8pts | Avg Margin | -4.2pts |
| 376.6 | Disposals | 316.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 51.2 | Tackles | 50.8 |
| 40.6 | Clearances | 37.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | R14 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W | 121.2 |
| Port Adelaide | R15 L · R16 W · R17 W · R18 L · R19 L | 74.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R17 | Brisbane Lions | 120 – 92 | Port Adelaide |
| 2024 | R15 | Port Adelaide | 73 – 152 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2023 | WF | Brisbane Lions | 123 – 75 | Port Adelaide |
| 2023 | R1 | Port Adelaide | 126 – 72 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2022 | R1 | Brisbane Lions | 80 – 69 | Port Adelaide |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 207 · 172 | 129 · 152 |
| Goal Assists | 5.8/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 92/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.9/g | 17.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.6/g | 9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.8% | 66.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 62 · 54 | 58 · 45 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 167/g | 142/g |
| Inside 50s | 26.3/g | 24.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.7/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.2% | 68.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 10 | 14 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 103/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.8/g | 8.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.9% | 78.8% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.18/g (lg 1.08) +9% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.52) +4% · Key Forwards 3.96/g (lg 3.85) +3%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Key Forwards 3.78/g (lg 3.85) -2% · Forwards 4.29/g (lg 4.46) -4% · Rucks 0.49/g (lg 0.52) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 44 in 17g | 27/10g (4·2·1·1·7·3·3·3·2·1) | 3/2g | 53/27g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' 66' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 38 in 18g | 20/10g (2·3·2·2·2·1·2·2·2·2) | 23/15g | 188/99g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' 80' 87' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 36 in 18g | 20/10g (2·0·3·0·0·1·2·5·3·4) | 1/2g | 41/33g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 87' 76' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 26 in 17g | 12/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·2·3·2·1) | 13/9g | 91/90g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 77' 84' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 19 in 18g | 9/10g (0·1·3·0·0·0·3·1·0·1) | 10/9g | 83/90g | 68% | — | 🏉 46' 70' |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 17 in 12g | 13/10g (0·1·2·0·1·2·2·2·2·1) | 1/6g | 14/31g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 11 in 17g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/7g | 9/13g | 56% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 18g | 9/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 1/1g | 12/20g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 18g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·3·0) | 2/2g | 19/35g | 34% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 5/3g | 10/29g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 6 in 5g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·2·1) | 23/11g | 133/101g | 68% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 10/11g | 72/109g | 50% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 7/19g | 39/88g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 45/97g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 13/40g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 3 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 4/12g | 8/49g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 19/16g | 132/157g | 16% | — | — |
| – | James Tunstill | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/46g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 4/124g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/44g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 23/119g | 2% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 37 in 17g | 19/10g (3·4·1·1·1·2·1·3·3·0) | 9/5g | 8/4g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 85' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 28 in 18g | 14/10g (1·1·1·1·2·0·3·1·2·2) | 4/4g | 1/2g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 23 in 17g | 12/10g (0·0·0·3·3·2·0·1·1·2) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 19 in 18g | 9/10g (1·0·2·0·0·2·0·3·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 53% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 14 in 18g | 9/10g (0·2·0·2·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 45% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 7 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 43' 82' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/11g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Zadow | FWD | 4 in 3g | 4/3g (1·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Jack Watkins | FWD | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/16g | 4/11g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 10/7g | 5/6g | 50% | — | 🏉 18' 73' |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Bamert | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Balyn O'Brien | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 31.5 | $1.76 | 57% | 24 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.90 | 67% | 30 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 26.5 | $1.80 | 62% | 34 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 21.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 20 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 21.5 | $2.05 | 49% | 16 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey | 21.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry | 19.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 15 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 19.5 | $1.80 | 58% | 27 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.87 | 39% | 21 ✗ |
| Cam Rayner | 16.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 17 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.77 | 69% | 30 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.85 | 66% | 23 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 21.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 22 ✗ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 16 ✓ |
| Joe Berry ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 95% | 4 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 86% | 20 ✗ |
| Logan Evans | 17.5 | $1.82 | 54% | 15 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 17.5 | $1.94 | 50% | 19 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Brisbane Lions 1741 · Port Adelaide 1399 · ELO difference: 341 in favour of Brisbane Lions

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Brisbane Lions | Port Adelaide | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1316 (best 1455) | 1224 (best 1368) | Brisbane Lions +92 |
| Forwards | 1194 (best 1563) | 838 (best 1315) | Brisbane Lions +356 |
| Defence | 1248 (best 1377) | 1267 (best 1433) | Port Adelaide +20 |
| Ruck | 1015 (best 1087) | 1064 (best 1078) | Port Adelaide +49 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Brisbane Lions |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 16 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r20-brisbane-lions-v-port-adelaide
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-26 05:53 UTC (latest tip update)