# Adelaide Crows v Collingwood — AFL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Adelaide Crows v Collingwood
Thu, 23 July, 07:30 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 20

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $2.84 (edge +22.0%) — model probability 57.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 163.5 @ $1.85 (edge +90.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 1 · Predicted total: 168

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 92.8pts | Avg Score | 93.4pts |
| 70.6pts | Avg Conceded | 75.2pts |
| 22.2pts | Avg Margin | 18.2pts |
| 385.4 | Disposals | 379.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 73.6 | Tackles | 64.0 |
| 35.6 | Clearances | 36.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | R15 W · R16 L · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W | 92.8 |
| Collingwood | R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W | 93.4 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-23 12:20 UTC (latest tip update)