# Adelaide Crows v Collingwood — AFL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 74 – 108 Collingwood

_Collingwood surge back to stun Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 48 – 40 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 43% / Collingwood 57% · Adelaide Oval · Thu, 23 July, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Jordan Dawson (16' Tipped ⚡), Riley Thilthorpe (19' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Finnbar Maley (22'), Taylor Walker (24' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Josh Rachele (68' Tipped ⚡), Ben Keays (94' Tipped ⚡), Toby Murray (95') · Collingwood: Ned Long (9' 1st), Daniel McStay (10' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Lipinski (29'), Scott Pendlebury (55'), Jeremy Howe (59'), Steele Sidebottom (72'), Harvey Harrison (79'), Angus Anderson (80'), Jordan de Goey (84'), Nick Daicos (71'), Tim Membrey (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Edward Allan (79' ×2), Beau McCreery (85')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 57% | Won |
| Adelaide Crows | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.5 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 July 2026, 07:57 pm · Last updated: 23 July 2026, 10:20 pm_

Adelaide Crows 74–108 Collingwood in AFL Round 20 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows had the scoreboard in their favour for a full half at Adelaide Oval, and then watched it turn into nothing. They led by 13 points at quarter time and were still up by eight at the main break. By three-quarter time the ledger had flipped entirely, Collingwood 68, Adelaide 60, and from there the margin only grew. Full time read 108-74, a 34-point Collingwood win built almost entirely in the third and fourth terms.

The turning stretch was the third quarter. Adelaide had led 48-40 at half time, meaning they'd added 15 to Collingwood's 20 in the second term, manageable enough. But in the third, Collingwood put on 28 points to Adelaide's 12, wiping out the lead and adding one of their own. The Crows never got it back. Collingwood then added 40 in the last quarter to Adelaide's 14, and what had been a contest for three quarters became a comfortable win.

The disposal numbers back up where the game was decided. Collingwood finished with 387 possessions to Adelaide's 354, and won the contested footy 150 to 140. Adelaide actually held the disposal efficiency edge, 71.8 per cent to 71.6, and tackled marginally more, 68 to 67, but none of that showed up on the scoreboard once Collingwood got on top at the source of the ball.

Adelaide were competitive, and in some areas better, everywhere except where it mattered most. Inside 50s were close, 47 to 49. Marks went the Crows' way clearly, 92 to 80, and marks inside 50 as well, 12 to 11. Adelaide even won the clearance count, 41 to 38.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 33 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 74 |
| Collingwood | 20 | 20 | 28 | 40 | 108 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 354 | Disposals | **387** |
| 140 | Contested poss. | **150** |
| **41** | Clearances | 38 |
| 47 | Inside 50s | **49** |
| **92** | Marks | 80 |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **68** | Tackles | 67 |
| 43 | Hit-outs | **47** |
| 64 | Intercepts | **70** |
| **71.8%** | Disposal eff. | 71.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.5 but the actual margin was 34 points. Collingwood trailed 48–40 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 74–108. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $2.84 (edge +22.0%) — model probability 57.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 163.5 @ $1.85 (edge +0.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 1 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Collingwood are the call at 57%, but Adelaide Crows stay live at 43%. The ratings say otherwise: Adelaide Crows sit 141 ELO points clear, 1723 to 1582, so the model is backing Collingwood against the ratings gap. Form leans Collingwood's way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Adelaide Crows.

On paper Adelaide Crows shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO. The model still sides with Collingwood, which says Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. Lean Collingwood, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 92.8pts | Avg Score | 93.4pts |
| 70.6pts | Avg Conceded | 75.2pts |
| 22.2pts | Avg Margin | 18.2pts |
| 385.4 | Disposals | 379.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 73.6 | Tackles | 64.0 |
| 35.6 | Clearances | 36.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | R15 W · R16 L · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W | 92.8 |
| Collingwood | R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W | 93.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Collingwood lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Collingwood | 79 – 93 | Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows 67% ✓ |
| 2025 | WF | Adelaide Crows | 55 – 79 | Collingwood | not priced |
| 2025 | R23 | Adelaide Crows | 59 – 56 | Collingwood | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Collingwood | 78 – 68 | Adelaide Crows | not priced |
| 2024 | R10 | Collingwood | 78 – 74 | Adelaide Crows | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 164 · 145 | 162 · 145 |
| Goal Assists | 5.9/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 110/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.5/g | 21.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.6/g | 10.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.7% | 70.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 69 · 40 | 54 · 48 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.5/g | 19.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 71.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 14 | 5 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 126/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.5/g | 11.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 82% | 80.9% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.52) +6% · Defenders 1.06/g (lg 1.08) -2% · Midfielders 2.36/g (lg 2.47) -4%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.11/g (lg 1.08) +3% · Forwards 4.35/g (lg 4.45) -2% · Midfielders 2.21/g (lg 2.47) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 31 in 18g | 19/10g (2·3·1·0·4·3·1·1·3·1) | 5/6g | 77/50g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 23 in 18g | 13/10g (1·2·0·2·1·1·1·3·2·0) | 1/13g | 81/86g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 94' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 21 in 15g | 13/10g (3·1·1·1·0·3·1·1·0·2) | 9/8g | 74/54g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' 41' 77' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 20 in 15g | 14/10g (1·1·1·3·3·2·0·1·2·0) | 5/14g | 42/64g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 19 in 12g | 16/10g (1·1·5·1·0·2·1·0·0·5) | 28/17g | 307/139g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 30' 37' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 14 in 15g | 9/10g (2·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 10/9g | 75/45g | 84% | — | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 12 in 17g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 8/15g | 22/37g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 10 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/26g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 9 in 16g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 4/9g | 26/58g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Toby Murray | RUC | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (0·2·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/4g | 57% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 6 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 7/28g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 6 in 18g | 6/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 33% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 11/25g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 3/25g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/3g | 59% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 8/26g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/44g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 9/53g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 19/78g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Hall-Kahan | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/16g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/41g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/49g | 4% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 31 in 18g | 18/10g (3·1·2·1·2·1·0·3·3·2) | 10/9g | 7/11g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 61' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 25 in 14g | 19/10g (1·2·0·3·0·3·2·3·2·3) | 14/12g | 21/17g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' 93' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 20 in 17g | 14/10g (0·2·3·1·2·1·3·1·1·0) | 8/9g | 7/9g | 68% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 17 in 17g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·2·3·1·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 5/11g | 56% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Angus Anderson | FWD | 12 in 11g | 11/10g (0·2·1·1·1·2·1·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 81% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 9 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 5/8g | 5/9g | 30% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 9 in 17g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·2·1·2·0) | 4/12g | 4/12g | 38% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 9/18g | 7/16g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/5g | 1/4g | 26% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 8/17g | 4/14g | 20% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/18g | 30/94g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 10/18g | 7/17g | 30% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Charlie West | KF | 2 in 3g | 3/4g (1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.51 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/10g | 5/9g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/16g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 11% | — | 🏉 79' 82' |
| – | Harvey Harrison | FWD | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 4/11g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 7/18g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/13g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/12g | 2% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Liam Puncher | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.93 | 68% | 24 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 68% | 25 ✗ |
| Jordan Dawson | 23.5 | $1.88 | 42% | 22 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 21 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 13 ✓ |
| Sam Berry | 21.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 30 ✗ |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.89 | 73% | 19 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo | 18.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 15 ✓ |
| Josh Rachele ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.94 | 63% | 7 ✓ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos ⚡ Under | 33.5 | $1.95 | 71% | 39 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 15 ✓ |
| Jordan De Goey | 22.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 20 ✓ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 21.5 | $1.87 | 41% | 29 ✗ |
| Dan Houston ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $2.05 | 60% | 13 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.79 | 73% | 23 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 18.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 19 ✗ |
| Jeremy Howe ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.78 | 69% | 15 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 18.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 17 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 13 ✓ |
| Edward Allan ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 17 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Adelaide Crows 1723 · Collingwood 1582 · ELO difference: 141 in favour of Adelaide Crows

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1255 (best 1359) | 1123 (best 1388) | Adelaide Crows +133 |
| Forwards | 1286 (best 1600) | 1272 (best 1457) | Adelaide Crows +15 |
| Defence | 1287 (best 1592) | 1230 (best 1468) | Adelaide Crows +57 |
| Ruck | 1052 (best 1129) | 1397 (best 1397) | Collingwood +346 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Collingwood |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Adelaide Crows |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Collingwood favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-23 12:20 UTC (latest tip update)