# West Coast Eagles v North Melbourne — AFL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 111 – 94 North Melbourne

_West Coast Eagles surge back to swoop on North Melbourne._

Half time: 48 – 55 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 73% / North Melbourne 27% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 22 Mar, 06:10 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Archer Reid (19' ×2), Cooper Duff-Tytler (31' Tipped ⚡), Milan Murdock (41' ×2), Jamie Cripps (43' ×3), Jobe Shanahan (76' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Elliot Yeo (79' ×2), Willem Duursma (87'), Matt Flynn (97'), Jake Waterman (82' Tipped ⚡) · North Melbourne: Nick Larkey (4' ×6 1st Tipped 🎯), Tom Powell (10'), Finn OSullivan (13'), Cameron Zurhaar (16' Tipped ⚡), Paul Curtis (23' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Lachy Dovaston (82'), Luke McDonald (71'), Jacob Konstanty (91')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 73% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 18.0 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 Mar 2026, 09:01 pm_

West Coast Eagles 111–94 North Melbourne in AFL Round 2 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne led by 24 points at the first change and had every reason to like their footing. West Coast Eagles trailed 19-43 at quarter time, the kind of start that suggests a long afternoon. They chipped away in the second term, only to still be down 48-55 at half time. Then the game turned. West Coast Eagles put on 49 points to North Melbourne's 12 in the third quarter, flipping an eight-point deficit into a 30-point lead, 97-67 at the last change. North Melbourne clawed back some pride in the final term, 27 to 14, but the margin they'd handed West Coast Eagles in that third quarter was too much to chase down. Final score: West Coast Eagles 111, North Melbourne 94.

North Melbourne actually won most of the stats that are supposed to matter. They had more of the ball, 352 disposals to 340, and used it better, 75.3% efficiency to 72.7%. They won the clearance count 44-35 and the tackle count 65-58, and their ruck division flat out dominated, 54 hit-outs to 27. On raw numbers that's the shape of a winning side.

It didn't translate, because West Coast Eagles won the two categories that turn possession into points. They pushed forward more, 56 inside 50s to 47, and they read the ball better in defence, coming away with 74 intercepts to North Melbourne's 57. Marks were even at 67 apiece, and North Melbourne actually had the edge inside attacking 50, 11 marks to 9. But field position and turnovers won out over raw ball use, and that's usually how these things go when one side has all the ball but can't stop the other team using theirs efficiently in the areas that count.

The pre-match numbers had this pegged as a home banker. West Coast Eagles came in rated 1505 to North Melbourne's 1452, with the model giving them a 73% chance and an expected margin of 18 points. They also had the form on their side, averaging 108 points a game across their last five to North Melbourne's 85.9, with an average winning margin near 19 points against North Melbourne's average losing margin of 8.4.

Alphr's model landed close to the mark. It picked West Coast Eagles by 18, and they won by 17. The total score was the surprise: 205 points between the two sides, well above the projected 168, largely thanks to that third-quarter avalanche. West Coast Eagles also covered the 13.5-point line and the margin fell into the 1-39 band the model called, making it three out of four on the night for the tips that mattered.

North Melbourne will look at the discrepancy between territory and scoreboard and wonder how they lost a game they won on clearances, tackles, disposals and hit-outs. The honest answer is in the intercept count and the inside 50 differential. West Coast Eagles created more opportunities and made more of them, especially in that third term when the margin turned from a contest into a arm wrestle they controlled.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 19 | 29 | 49 | 14 | 111 |
| North Melbourne | 43 | 12 | 12 | 27 | 94 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 340 | Disposals | **352** |
| **147** | Contested poss. | 131 |
| 35 | Clearances | **44** |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| 67 | Marks | 67 |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **11** |
| 58 | Tackles | **65** |
| 27 | Hit-outs | **54** |
| **74** | Intercepts | 57 |
| 72.7% | Disposal eff. | **75.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted West Coast Eagles to win at 73% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting West Coast Eagles by 18.0 vs the actual margin of 17 points. The game's 205 points came in 37 points higher than the predicted 168. West Coast Eagles trailed 48–55 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 111–94. The model went 3/4 on this match. West Coast Eagles covered the 13.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** West Coast Eagles to win @ $2.66 (edge +35.5%) — model probability 73.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +13.5 @ $1.90 (edge +35.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 18 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 3 in 1g | 22/10g (2·2·0·4·2·3·1·2·3·3) | 6/5g | 93/59g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 82' |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 2 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 8/12g | 22/58g | 32% | — | 🏉 79' 104' |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 28% | — | 🏉 19' 51' |
| – | Jacob Newton | FWD | 1 in 1g | 2/3g (0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 1 in 1g | 13/10g (1·2·1·1·0·1·3·0·3·1) | 0/0g | 9/5g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' 95' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/40g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.75 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 31' |
| – | Deven Robertson | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·2·0) | 0/2g | 15/21g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/31g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/19g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·2·2·1·1·1·0) | 16/12g | 101/84g | 74% | — | 🏉 43' 45' 73' |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | no games | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 5/7g | 7/21g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 4/81g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/4g | 4/16g | 26% | — | 🏉 97' |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/33g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | no games | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 23/62g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 87' |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 4 in 1g | 25/10g (1·2·1·0·3·1·5·5·3·4) | 25/9g | 19/7g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 8' 28' 63' 76' 79' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 3 in 1g | 12/4g (3·3·3·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 2 in 1g | 16/10g (3·0·2·3·0·3·2·0·1·2) | 11/8g | 8/7g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 1 in 1g | 13/10g (1·0·3·1·1·1·3·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 148/78g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 5/11g | 4/10g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 10/13g | 6/9g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 1 in 1g | 17/10g (2·1·1·2·0·2·0·5·3·1) | 13/5g | 5/5g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 91' |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 1/12g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/27g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 3/5g | 2/4g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 35% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Lachy Dovaston | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/9g | 4/9g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/8g | 0% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 1/4g | 24% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/4g | 20% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.80 | 73% | 18 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 20.5 | $1.85 | 52% | 30 ✗ |
| Deven Robertson ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 100% | 26 ✗ |
| Liam Duggan | 20.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 19 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 20.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 19 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 19.5 | $1.85 | 63% | 23 ✗ |
| Elliot Yeo | 18.5 | $1.74 | 50% | 19 ✗ |
| Brady Hough | 14.5 | $1.85 | 44% | 17 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 31.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 39 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 32 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 23.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 25 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 23.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 22 ✓ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.83 | 67% | 23 ✗ |
| Dylan Stephens ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 17 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.83 | 82% | 25 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 20.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 23 ✗ |
| Finn O'Sullivan | 17.5 | $1.85 | 60% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-19 10:01 UTC (latest tip update)