Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted West Coast Eagles to win at 73% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting West Coast Eagles by 18.0 vs the actual margin of 17 points. The game's 205 points came in 37 points higher than the predicted 168. West Coast Eagles trailed 48–55 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 111–94. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
73%
North Melbourne
27%
AI Match Overview
West Coast Eagles are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees West Coast Eagles ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. West Coast Eagles carry a 53-point ELO rating advantage (1505 vs 1452). The margin model predicts West Coast Eagles by 18.0 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
West Coast Eagles to Win @2.66
Winner ✓
Edge
+35.5%
Line / Spread
West Coast Eagles +13.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+35.5%
Margin Band
West Coast Eagles 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.88
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | WWLLL | 108.0 |
North Melbourne | WWLLL | 85.9 |
Avg Conceded
88.2
West Coast Eagles
79.3
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
19.0
West Coast Eagles
-8.4
North Melbourne
Disposals
343.6
West Coast Eagles
359.7
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
46.5
West Coast Eagles
49.9
North Melbourne
ELO–Market Disagreement
West Coast Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1505 vs 1452), but the market favours North Melbourne (@1.60).
The model sides with ELO — West Coast Eagles predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
West Coast Eagles predicted to win by 18 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +18.0
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AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.