# Richmond v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 60 – 128 Gold Coast SUNS

_Gold Coast SUNS run riot over Richmond._

Half time: 34 – 65 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 48% / Gold Coast SUNS 52% · MCG · Sat, 21 Mar, 01:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Dion Prestia (13'), Mykelti Lefau (26' Tipped ⚡), Nick Vlastuin (35'), Seth Campbell (44' ×2), Harry Armstrong (70' Tipped ⚡), Hugo Ralphsmith (78'), Sam Lalor (87' Tipped ⚡) · Gold Coast SUNS: Ben King (5' ×6 1st Tipped 🎯), Will Graham (32'), Jake Rogers (48'), Joel Jeffrey (52'), John Noble (56'), Ethan Read (58' ×3), Ben Long (76' Tipped ⚡), Touk Miller (83'), Wil Powell (65'), Sam Clohesy (90')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 52% | Won |
| Richmond | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.9 predicted → 68 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 Mar 2026, 09:01 pm · Last updated: 21 Mar 2026, 06:40 pm_

Richmond 60–128 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 2 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Gold Coast SUNS put 128 on Richmond at the MCG, winning by 68 points. Split the game any other way and it still looks bad for Richmond, except for one number: clearances. Richmond won that count 38 to 27. A side that dominates clearances usually wins the footy war. On Saturday it barely mattered.

The quarter time scores tell you why this one is more interesting than a 68-point margin suggests. Richmond were level, 14-14, after the first term. Whatever was coming, it wasn't visible yet. Then Gold Coast SUNS piled on 51 points to Richmond's 20 in the second quarter to lead 65-34 at the main break. From there it was a matter of degree, SUNS adding another 28 to Richmond's 19 in the third and finishing with 35 more in the last.

The disposal count explains some of it. Gold Coast SUNS finished with 385 to Richmond's 330, and used it far better, hitting targets at 78.7% against Richmond's 72.1%. That gap in efficiency is what turns clean midfield ball use into forward-half domination. Richmond had the clearances, but Gold Coast SUNS had the polish, and polish tends to win out over four quarters.

Where SUNS really took the game away was up forward. They went inside 50 sixty-one times to Richmond's 36, and once there they made it count, with 23 marks inside 50 to Richmond's 8. That's not just more entries, it's cleaner ones, and it's the number that most directly explains 128 points. Add in 127 marks to 83 overall and 73 intercepts to 57, and you've got a side that controlled the ball in the air and picked off whatever Richmond tried to move it with.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 14 | 20 | 19 | 7 | 60 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 14 | 51 | 28 | 35 | 128 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 330 | Disposals | **385** |
| **113** | Contested poss. | 108 |
| **38** | Clearances | 27 |
| 36 | Inside 50s | **61** |
| 83 | Marks | **127** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **23** |
| **59** | Tackles | 57 |
| 24 | Hit-outs | **37** |
| 57 | Intercepts | **73** |
| 72.1% | Disposal eff. | **78.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.9 but the actual margin was 68 points. The game's 188 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 168. Gold Coast SUNS led 34–65 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 68. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 191.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.16 (edge -33.9%) — model probability 52.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +34.5 @ $1.90 (edge -33.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 191.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 10 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 2 in 1g | 10/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·2·2·0·2) | 1/1g | 11/8g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 87' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 2 in 1g | 8/10g (0·2·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 11/15g | 47% | — | — |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 2 in 1g | 19/10g (2·2·2·0·3·1·1·3·3·2) | 12/5g | 156/70g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 19/104g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/41g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/6g | 31/89g | 26% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Harry Armstrong | KF | 0 in 1g | 6/9g (0·2·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/5g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 12/34g | 28% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 7/51g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 8/41g | 18% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/14g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 16/31g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | no games | 14/10g (2·1·3·1·2·0·1·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 7/7g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/94g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 16/140g | 0% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/6g | 26/58g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/27g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·0·3·2·0) | 4/4g | 18/25g | 50% | — | 🏉 44' 80' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 31/51g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 26/93g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 7/23g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/19g | 22% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 9 in 2g | 35/10g (2·4·6·2·3·7·0·2·4·5) | 20/8g | 11/5g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.75 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 41' 61' 91' 69' 76' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 7 in 2g | 12/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·3·4) | 7/11g | 97/107g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 4 in 1g | 17/10g (2·1·0·3·3·0·1·3·0·4) | 3/5g | 2/3g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 4 in 2g | 5/6g (1·0·0·0·2·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 3 in 2g | 20/10g (4·2·3·2·3·1·2·0·2·1) | 12/10g | 8/10g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/7g | 4/60g | 12% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·1·1) | 4/7g | 2/5g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/12g | 6/10g | 38% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Alex Davies | MID | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 56/103g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/12g | 17/32g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 26% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Ballard | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (1·2·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 57% | — | 🏉 58' 63' 87' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 8% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 0 in 2g | 10/10g (1·2·2·1·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/2g | 4/2g | 51% | — | 🏉 32' |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.83 | 73% | 26 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 23.5 | $1.90 | 41% | 26 ✗ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 74% | 33 ✗ |
| Jack Ross | 20.5 | $1.95 | 47% | 24 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 19.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 12 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia | 18.5 | $1.80 | 23% | 18 ✓ |
| Sam Grlj ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 13 ✓ |
| Sam Lalor ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.85 | 74% | 17 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 13.5 | $1.94 | 23% | 13 ✓ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.90 | 72% | 21 ✓ |
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.92 | 72% | 20 ✓ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 31 ✗ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.81 | 69% | 20 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 23 ✓ |
| Wil Powell ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 74% | 19 ✓ |
| Bodhi Uwland ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.94 | 72% | 29 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli | 18.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Alex Davies ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 18 ✓ |
| Sam Clohesy | 16.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-21 07:40 UTC (latest tip update)