# Port Adelaide v Essendon — AFL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 133 – 70 Essendon

_Port Adelaide run riot over Essendon._

Half time: 67 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 59% / Essendon 41% · Adelaide Oval · Sun, 22 Mar, 03:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (9' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jordon Sweet (10'), Jason Horne-Francis (13' ×3), Joe Berry (25' ×2), Joe Richards (42' ×2), Corey Durdin (58' ×2), Willem Drew (69'), Miles Bergman (72'), Final quarter (31m 47s)Jack Watkins (64'), Jase Burgoyne (67'), Jack Lukosius (71' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Byrne-Jones (76') · Essendon: Brayden Fiorini (5' 1st), Sam Durham (53'), Nate Caddy (66' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Kyle Langford (78' Tipped ⚡), Archie Perkins (74'), Isaac Kako (79'), Jye Caldwell (88')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 59% | Won |
| Essendon | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 26.8 predicted → 63 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 Mar 2026, 09:01 pm · Last updated: 22 Mar 2026, 06:56 pm_

Port Adelaide 133–70 Essendon in AFL Round 2 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-one to nine. That was the quarter-time scoreboard at Adelaide Oval, and it told you everything you needed to know about how this one would finish. Port Adelaide didn't so much start well as start suffocating, and Essendon never found the air to recover.

By half-time it was 67-18. Three-quarter time, 100-38. Full-time, 133-70. A 63-point win built on a first term that put the result beyond doubt before most people had settled into their seats.

The stat sheet backs up what the eyes saw. Port ran out 407 disposals to 337, won clearances 42-26, and went inside 50 sixty times to Essendon's 43. But the number that really tells the story is marks: 165 to 58, and 25 marks inside 50 to just 7. Essendon couldn't win the ball back cleanly enough to slow the bleeding, and even when they did, Port owned the space in front of goal.

Oddly enough, this wasn't a case of Port dominating every column. Contested possessions were locked level at 120 apiece. Essendon actually won the hit-out count, 35 to 30, and edged intercepts, 62 to 60. None of it mattered. You can win the scraps and still lose the war if the other side is turning every second contest into an uncontested mark forty metres out.

That's what makes the pre-match positional read look a bit sheepish now. Essendon went in rated ahead in midfield, 1071 to 1064, ahead in the forward line, 1062 to 1023, and ahead in the ruck, 1055 to 1033. On paper this was meant to be tight, or at least competitive. On the day, none of those edges translated into scoreboard pressure.

Form lines make it stranger still. Essendon arrived averaging 98.8 points a game across their last five, conceding just 65.4. Port were sitting at 70.5 scored and 80.7 conceded, the kind of numbers that suggest a team leaking points, not piling them on. Whatever Essendon had been doing well before this trip to Adelaide Oval, it stayed on the bus.

Alphr's model called the winner, giving Port Adelaide a 59% chance, and got that half right. The margin was where it fell over badly, tipping Port by 26.8 and watching the actual gap come in at 63. The total was off too, 167 predicted against 203 delivered. Two from four on this one, and Port covered the 18.5-point line with plenty to spare.

Essendon leave Adelaide with very little to salvage from the stat sheet beyond a hit-out and intercept count that won't show up in the final margin.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 41 | 26 | 33 | 33 | 133 |
| Essendon | 9 | 9 | 20 | 32 | 70 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| **407** | Disposals | 337 |
| 120 | Contested poss. | 120 |
| **42** | Clearances | 26 |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 43 |
| **165** | Marks | 58 |
| **25** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **47** | Tackles | 41 |
| 30 | Hit-outs | **35** |
| 60 | Intercepts | **62** |
| **76.7%** | Disposal eff. | 74.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 26.8 but the actual margin was 63 points. The game's 203 points came in 36 points higher than the predicted 167. Port Adelaide led 67–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 63. The model went 2/4 on this match. Port Adelaide covered the 18.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.38 (edge -13.5%) — model probability 59.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -18.5 @ $1.90 (edge -13.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 186.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 27 · Predicted total: 167

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 3 in 1g | 28/10g (5·4·3·2·1·3·2·1·4·3) | 11/4g | 98/51g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 84' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 2 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 8/6g | 54% | — | 🏉 58' 86' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 2 in 1g | 6/5g (0·0·3·1·2) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 75% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 10/13g | 44/120g | 56% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 15/57g | 24% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/65g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 11/8g | 79/83g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/27g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | no games | 10/10g (0·0·2·1·0·3·0·2·0·2) | 4/6g | 6/10g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' 90' |
| – | Jack Watkins | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/34g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/29g | 16% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·3·0) | 1/5g | 36/38g | 68% | — | 🏉 13' 19' 24' |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 22% | — | 🏉 25' 40' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 11/13g | 52% | — | 🏉 42' 91' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/21g | 22% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 24/62g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/12g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (5·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 9/8g | 86/62g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 10/73g | 6% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/7g | 30/76g | 18% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Dyson Sharp | FWD | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.82 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 40% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 2 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 21/43g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 5/5g | 5/5g | 46% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/9g | 2/8g | 40% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Hussien El Achkar | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/7g | 2/7g | 40% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·3·1·1·1) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' 78' 86' |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (1·0·2·2·0·1·1·2·0·1) | 4/8g | 6/5g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/15g | 4/16g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/12g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Parish | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 3/14g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | no games | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 61% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Nguyen | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 12/10g | 16/13g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Max Kondogiannis | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 36 ✗ |
| Connor Rozee ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 21 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell | 20.5 | $1.89 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| Willem Drew ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 62% | 21 ✗ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 19.5 | $1.85 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 22 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.82 | 66% | 10 ✓ |
| Logan Evans ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.84 | 73% | 22 ✗ |
| Jacob Wehr ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 18 ✗ |
| Todd Marshall ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 98% | 15 ✓ |
| Joe Richards | 14.5 | $1.86 | 58% | 21 ✗ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 28.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 25 ✓ |
| Darcy Parish | 25.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 24 ✓ |
| Jye Caldwell | 23.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 27 ✗ |
| Archie Roberts | 23.5 | $1.83 | 50% | 26 ✗ |
| Mason Redman | 22.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 4 ✓ |
| Sam Durham | 21.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 21.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 21 ✓ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 19.5 | $1.90 | 37% | 10 ✓ |
| Xavier Duursma | 16.5 | $1.87 | 38% | 15 ✓ |
| Zak Johnson ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.80 | 78% | 26 ✗ |
| Archie Perkins ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 9 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-22 07:56 UTC (latest tip update)