# GWS GIANTS v St Kilda — AFL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 74 – 78 St Kilda

_St Kilda survive a scare against GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 24 – 56 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 58% / St Kilda 42% · ENGIE Stadium · Sat, 21 Mar, 04:15 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Jesse Hogan (4' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Harry Rowston (44'), Ryan Angwin (56'), Max Gruzewski (79' Tipped ⚡), Phoenix Gothard (82' ×2), Final quarter (32m 39s)Clayton Oliver (63'), Jake Stringer (87' Tipped ⚡), Harvey Thomas (88') · St Kilda: Bradley Hill (7'), Mattaes Phillipou (16'), Jack Higgins (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Alix Tauru (26' ×2), Mitch Owens (42' Tipped ⚡), Max Hall (59' Tipped ⚡), Liam Ryan (86'), Mason Wood (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 58% | Lost |
| St Kilda | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 Mar 2026, 09:01 pm · Last updated: 22 Mar 2026, 10:57 am_

GWS GIANTS 74–78 St Kilda in AFL Round 2 at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda held a 32-point buffer at the main break, 56 to 24, and it looked like the sort of margin you don't give back. GWS Giants had the disposal count and the tackle pressure to suggest otherwise, but on the scoreboard they were nowhere.

The shape of that lead was built early. St Kilda were up 34 to 9 at quarter time, a 25-point start, then added to it in the second term, 22 points to 15, to reach that 32-point break. It wasn't one big passage of dominance so much as St Kilda staying in front on the ledger every quarter while GWS kept finding ways to leave points on the table.

Through three quarters the gap barely moved. St Kilda led 70 to 43 at the last change, a 27-point buffer, and with one term to play that's normally game over. GWS had been racking up the ball all night without the score to show for it, and the only question left was whether St Kilda would keep their foot down or ease off.

They eased off, and GWS made them pay for it. The final quarter went 31 points to 8 in GWS's favour, the kind of turnaround that flips a laugher into a nail-biter. It wasn't enough. Full time: St Kilda 78, GWS Giants 74, a four-point margin that flattered how comfortable the contest looked for three quarters.

The disposal numbers back up GWS's territory dominance all game.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 9 | 15 | 19 | 31 | 74 |
| St Kilda | 34 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 78 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| **419** | Disposals | 367 |
| 134 | Contested poss. | **135** |
| 37 | Clearances | **40** |
| **62** | Inside 50s | 53 |
| **86** | Marks | 81 |
| **7** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| **59** | Tackles | 37 |
| 23 | Hit-outs | **35** |
| 74 | Intercepts | **76** |
| **72.1%** | Disposal eff. | 70.0% |

**Model Report Card**

St Kilda defied the model's 58% prediction for GWS GIANTS, a notable result. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The game's 152 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 168. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 183.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.48 (edge -9.3%) — model probability 58.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 6 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 5 in 2g | 22/10g (2·1·4·3·3·1·3·0·5·0) | 31/14g | 19/13g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 87' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 4 in 2g | 11/10g (1·2·0·2·0·1·0·1·3·1) | 6/6g | 35/29g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 3 in 2g | 19/10g (0·2·6·2·1·2·0·3·3·0) | 31/12g | 92/29g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 91' |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 3 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 5/15g | 36/78g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/6g | 6/24g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·4·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 2/5g | 31% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 2 in 2g | 13/10g (1·2·0·0·2·0·3·3·2·0) | 3/1g | 9/4g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 1 in 2g | 10/10g (1·2·0·0·5·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 31/20g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/12g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Phoenix Gothard | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 82' 70' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 1 in 2g | 18/10g (3·2·2·1·3·2·4·0·0·1) | 27/17g | 147/88g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 7/27g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/37g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 11/11g | 60/64g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 7/14g | 42% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/29g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josaia Delana | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 8/26g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/37g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 30/92g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 10% | — | 🏉 56' |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 5 in 2g | 15/10g (3·3·0·0·1·1·0·2·1·4) | 3/2g | 2/1g | 69% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 4 in 2g | 12/10g (0·1·1·1·2·2·0·1·2·2) | 3/4g | 0/1g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 4 in 2g | 12/10g (0·0·2·4·0·1·1·0·1·3) | 4/6g | 0/2g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 3 in 2g | 18/10g (2·0·2·4·2·2·3·0·1·2) | 15/10g | 6/6g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 19' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 2 in 2g | 17/10g (1·2·2·2·1·2·3·2·2·0) | 7/4g | 2/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 78% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 2 in 2g | 11/10g (1·1·2·1·1·3·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 64% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/14g | 2/6g | 26% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 1 in 2g | 9/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·5·0·1) | 6/3g | 5/1g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 0/4g | 56% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 9% | — | 🏉 26' 69' |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/6g | 4/4g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/15g | 3/5g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/2g | 38% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/9g | 0/3g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 2/4g | 26% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.94 | 66% | 28 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.93 | 85% | 39 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan | 27.5 | $1.92 | 59% | 32 ✗ |
| Clayton Oliver | 26.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 33 ✗ |
| Toby Greene ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 76% | 21 ✓ |
| Joe Fonti ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.78 | 90% | 16 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg | 18.5 | $1.82 | 62% | 18 ✓ |
| Stephen Coniglio | 17.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 28 ✗ |
| Connor Idun ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 21 ✗ |
| Harry Rowston ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 81% | 12 ✓ |
| Harvey Thomas ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 22 ✗ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 31 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.90 | 88% | 23 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 26.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 27 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager | 25.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 22 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill | 21.5 | $1.94 | 55% | 20 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 69% | 28 ✗ |
| Max Hall | 18.5 | $1.89 | 63% | 15 ✓ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.80 | 75% | 21 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia | 17.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 21 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 22 ✗ |
| Jack Carroll ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.85 | 95% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r2-gws-giants-v-st-kilda
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-03-21 23:57 UTC (latest tip update)