Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
58%
Melbourne
42%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 42%. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO — but Fremantle counter with Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Melbourne carry a 76-point ELO rating advantage (1537 vs 1461). Recent form favours Melbourne with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 5.5 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.35
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.5%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -20.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.5%
Margin Band
Fremantle 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 190.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | LLLLL | 75.8 |
Melbourne | WWLLL | 80.2 |
Avg Conceded
99.6
Fremantle
88.6
Melbourne
Avg Margin
-23.8
Fremantle
-8.4
Melbourne
Disposals
358.0
Fremantle
336.2
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Fremantle
50.0
Melbourne
ELO–Market Disagreement
Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1537 vs 1461), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.35).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Fremantle predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +5.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.