Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
58%
Melbourne
42%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Fremantle carry a 46-point ELO rating advantage (1552 vs 1505). Recent form favours Fremantle with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 5.5 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.35
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.5%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -20.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.5%
Margin Band
Fremantle 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 190.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | W W W W L | 90.2 |
Melbourne | W W W L L | 92.8 |
Avg Conceded
83.6
Fremantle
74.8
Melbourne
Avg Margin
-1.0
Fremantle
7.7
Melbourne
Disposals
358.4
Fremantle
331.5
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.8
Fremantle
57.4
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Fremantle predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +5.5
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