# Fremantle v Melbourne — AFL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 118 – 70 Melbourne

_Fremantle demolish Melbourne._

Half time: 65 – 34 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 58% / Melbourne 42% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 21 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Andrew Brayshaw (5' 1st), Matthew Johnson (11'), Murphy Reid (12'), Patrick Voss (15' Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (17' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Shai Bolton (21' ×2), Sam Switkowski (58'), Isaiah Dudley (68' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Caleb Serong (86'), Luke Jackson (80') · Melbourne: Ed Langdon (9' ×2), Brody Mihocek (43' Tipped ⚡), Bayley Fritsch (50' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Kysaiah Pickett (57' Tipped ⚡), Tom Sparrow (82'), Harry Sharp (64'), Kade Chandler (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 58% | Won |
| Melbourne | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 48 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 Mar 2026, 09:01 pm · Last updated: 22 Mar 2026, 04:28 am_

Fremantle 118–70 Melbourne in AFL Round 2 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-nine points to seven at the first change. That's the number that tells you everything about Fremantle 118, Melbourne 70 at Optus Stadium, because a start like that leaves a scoreboard nobody claws back from.

By half time it was 65 to 34, by three-quarter time 109 to 42, and the last quarter was just Fremantle adding on. The final margin of 48 wasn't built late, it was built early and never threatened.

The disposal count explains the flood. Fremantle finished with 397 to Melbourne's 333, and did it more efficiently too, hitting targets at 73.5% against 68.8%. That's the gap between a team playing with the ball and a team chasing it. Fremantle also won the clearance count 33 to 30 and the contested possession count 136 to 124, so the ball was coming out of stoppages their way often enough to matter.

Melbourne actually won some of the fights you'd expect to decide a game. They out-marked Fremantle 99 to 91, took more marks inside 50 (12 to 11), edged the intercept count 76 to 73, and dominated hit-outs 34 to 24. None of it showed up on the scoreboard. When a team is losing by that much despite winning the ruck battle by ten and out-marking the opposition, the story isn't in the possession stats, it's in what each side did once they had the ball. Melbourne also laid more tackles, 55 to 43, pressure that looked good on paper but arrived too late to stop the bleeding that had already happened by quarter time.

Going in, the ratings had Fremantle ahead in every position group: forwards 1088 to 1008, defence 1067 to 979, ruck 1029 to 953, midfield 1025 to 991. Those gaps, especially forward and defensive, are exactly what you'd point to after a scoreline like this. Fremantle's forward line clearly did more with less service, and the defence made Melbourne's inside-50 advantage (56 to 54) count for very little.

Form lines make the result a bit stranger on paper. Melbourne came in with the better average score (92.8 to 90.2) and a positive average margin (+7.7 against Fremantle's -1.0), and Fremantle had actually been conceding more than they scored across their last five. None of that form carried over. Whatever Fremantle had been doing wrong lately, they fixed it for one afternoon, and comprehensively.

Alphr's model backed Fremantle at 58% and got the winner right, but the margin call of 5.5 points wasn't close to the finished product of 48. The total was closer to the mark: 168 predicted, 188 actual, near enough for the under 190.5 to land and for Fremantle to cover the 20.5-point line. Three from four isn't a bad night's work, but the margin miss is the one worth sitting with. Picking the winner is one thing. Picking how far a team runs away once it gets to 49-7 is another problem entirely.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 49 | 16 | 44 | 9 | 118 |
| Melbourne | 7 | 27 | 8 | 28 | 70 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **397** | Disposals | 333 |
| **136** | Contested poss. | 124 |
| **33** | Clearances | 30 |
| 54 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| 91 | Marks | **99** |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| 43 | Tackles | **55** |
| 24 | Hit-outs | **34** |
| 73 | Intercepts | **76** |
| **73.5%** | Disposal eff. | 68.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 58% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.5 but the actual margin was 48 points. The game's 188 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 168. Fremantle led 65–34 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 48. The model went 3/4 on this match. Fremantle covered the 20.5-point line. The under 190.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.35 (edge -16.5%) — model probability 57.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -20.5 @ $1.90 (edge -16.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 190.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 6 · Predicted total: 168

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 3 in 1g | 12/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·2·0·2·3) | 1/1g | 12/10g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' 90' 91' |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 2 in 1g | 17/10g (2·1·0·0·3·2·2·3·2·2) | 9/4g | 65/43g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 28' 61' 77' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 2 in 1g | 10/10g (0·2·0·1·0·2·0·2·1·2) | 8/7g | 34/23g | 68% | — | 🏉 21' 74' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 32/89g | 30% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 23/67g | 38% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 1 in 1g | 16/10g (1·2·2·3·3·0·0·3·1·1) | 14/4g | 58/39g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 79% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (2·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·1·1) | 5/3g | 37/42g | 68% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (1·0·0·1·1·2·1·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 14/14g | 77% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 10/22g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/62g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/22g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/38g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 8/53g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/90g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/30g | 14% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/24g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 3/10g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 0 in 1g | 23/10g (1·1·6·3·3·3·0·3·3·0) | 0/0g | 22/17g | 79% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·3·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 39/54g | 52% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 23/65g | 26% | — | — |

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 6 in 1g | 18/10g (2·2·1·1·0·2·1·2·1·6) | 3/2g | 4/2g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 81% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 3 in 1g | 13/10g (2·2·2·1·2·0·1·0·0·3) | 17/9g | 22/11g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 1 in 1g | 21/10g (2·1·3·2·3·4·2·0·3·1) | 11/9g | 22/12g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' 76' |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 3/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 29% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/14g | 0/10g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jai Culley | MID | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 3/5g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·2·1·1·1·0·1) | 4/6g | 5/6g | 56% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 1 in 1g | 17/10g (3·2·1·5·1·0·1·1·2·1) | 12/8g | 16/10g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' |
| – | Latrelle Pickett | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/13g | 6/11g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/2g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 17/34g | 32% | — | 🏉 9' 89' |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 0 in 1g | 12/10g (1·1·1·1·0·3·2·2·1·0) | 6/6g | 1/10g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·3·1·1·1·0) | 2/1g | 0/1g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/9g | 26% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 39 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 25 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 78% | 17 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 20.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 24 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.85 | 85% | 24 ✗ |
| Neil Erasmus | 18.5 | $1.83 | 57% | 21 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson | 18.5 | $1.85 | 56% | 19 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 17.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 32 ✗ |
| Judd McVee ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.85 | 78% | 12 ✓ |
| Karl Worner | 16.5 | $1.78 | 64% | 20 ✗ |

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | 24.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Jack Steele ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.92 | 69% | 31 ✗ |
| Trent Rivers ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 21 ✓ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.92 | 78% | 16 ✓ |
| Caleb Windsor ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.92 | 92% | 13 ✓ |
| Max Gawn ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 23 ✗ |
| Changkuoth Jiath ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.85 | 91% | 14 ✓ |
| Xavier Lindsay ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 88% | 14 ✓ |
| Ed Langdon | 17.5 | $1.83 | 51% | 22 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-21 17:28 UTC (latest tip update)