# Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs — AFL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 88 – 94 Western Bulldogs

_Western Bulldogs hold off a fast-finishing Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 32 – 47 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 61% / Western Bulldogs 39% · Adelaide Oval · Fri, 20 Mar, 07:40 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Jordon Butts (14'), Taylor Walker (18' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jake Soligo (23'), Riley Thilthorpe (36' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fogarty (63' ×2), Josh Rachele (68' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jordan Dawson (71'), Izak Rankine (81' Tipped ⚡) · Western Bulldogs: Oskar Baker (4' ×3 1st), Joel Freijah (8' ×3), Jordan Croft (42' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Williams (48' ×2), Marcus Bontempelli (69'), Aaron Naughton (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Darcy (87' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 61% | Lost |
| Western Bulldogs | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 Mar 2026, 09:01 pm · Last updated: 20 Mar 2026, 10:42 pm_

Adelaide Crows 88–94 Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 2 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows finished the day with more marks, better efficiency and more intercepts than Western Bulldogs, and still lost by six. That tells you plenty about how this one actually played out.

The Crows took 119 marks to the Bulldogs' 61, nearly double, and their disposal efficiency edged it too, 74.1% to 73.3%. They even won the intercept count, 74 to 68, and split marks inside 50 close to even, 8 to 7. On paper those are the numbers of a side that controls territory. On the scoreboard it didn't matter, because Adelaide was chasing from the first term onward. Quarter time had the Bulldogs up 22 to 18, half time it was 47 to 32, and by three-quarter time the margin had blown out to 73-55. Adelaide clawed back to within six by the final siren, 94-88, but the deficit built across three quarters was too much to fully erase.

Where it actually got decided was in the fights nobody circles on a stat sheet until after the fact. Western Bulldogs won clearances 45 to 38 and inside 50s 58 to 52, and they backed that up with 71 tackles to Adelaide's 47. That's a team playing with more urgency at the source of the ball and again once it arrived inside attacking territory. All that clean Crows marking came from taking the footy in space rather than winning it in the scrap, and against a side pressuring like that, marks alone don't convert into scoreboard pressure fast enough.

The form line coming in made this result genuinely awkward for the model. Adelaide arrived averaging 99 points a game across their last five with only 67.9 conceded, both considerably better than the Bulldogs' 73 scored and 87.8 conceded. Add in Adelaide's positional ratings sitting below the Bulldogs across the park (midfield 1015 to 1030, forwards 1011 to 1088, defence 979 to 1050) and you can see the tension: recent scoring form said Crows, underlying team strength said Bulldogs. On the day, strength won.

Alphr's model had Adelaide favourites at 61%, expecting them home by 5.8 points on a combined total of 168. The scoreline flipped the favourite but landed close to the number, Western Bulldogs by 6 against a predicted margin of 5.8. The total came in well under at 182, comfortably validating the under 195.5 call. Elsewhere the model went 1 from 4 on this one, a reminder that team strength ratings and recent form don't always point the same direction, and when they split, it's not a given which one wins out.

Western Bulldogs leaned on clearances, tackle pressure and a willingness to keep pushing it forward, and built a lead big enough to survive a fourth-quarter Adelaide surge. Adelaide's clean hands and efficient use of it kept them in the contest, but clean hands with no real advantage to control it around the ball is exactly how you end up watching the margin close from the wrong side. A tight finish, but the Bulldogs never actually gave up the lead they built.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 18 | 14 | 23 | 33 | 88 |
| Western Bulldogs | 22 | 25 | 26 | 21 | 94 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 363 | Disposals | **367** |
| 131 | Contested poss. | **143** |
| 38 | Clearances | **45** |
| 52 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| **119** | Marks | 61 |
| **8** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| 47 | Tackles | **71** |
| 45 | Hit-outs | 45 |
| **74** | Intercepts | 68 |
| **74.1%** | Disposal eff. | 73.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Western Bulldogs defied the model's 61% prediction for Adelaide Crows, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.8 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 195.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.92 (edge +9.0%) — model probability 61.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +0.5 @ $1.89 (edge +9.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 195.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 6 · Predicted total: 168

### H2H History (Last 5) — Adelaide Crows lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | QE | Adelaide Crows | 90 – 68 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2026 | R14 | Western Bulldogs | 64 – 121 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2025 | R18 | Western Bulldogs | 98 – 109 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R22 | Adelaide Crows | 111 – 72 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R10 | Western Bulldogs | 85 – 40 | Adelaide Crows |

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 3 in 1g | 30/10g (6·2·3·4·3·1·3·2·3·3) | 8/2g | 64/46g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' 58' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 2 in 1g | 12/10g (3·0·1·1·1·2·1·0·1·2) | 10/6g | 116/73g | 82% | — | 🏉 63' 77' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/6g | 6/22g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (0·3·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 9/14g | 16/27g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (0·1·3·0·1·0·3·0·1·1) | 5/7g | 65/76g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/16g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 21/49g | 44% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 1 in 1g | 19/10g (2·1·5·3·3·0·2·0·2·1) | 4/3g | 57/40g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' 76' |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 1 in 1g | 14/10g (2·1·1·0·1·1·3·3·1·1) | 0/1g | 24/21g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 7/6g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Chayce Jones | DEF | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 15/53g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | no games | 16/10g (0·1·1·5·1·2·1·3·1·1) | 6/7g | 68/36g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 81' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·3·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 7/15g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (2·1·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/7g | 30/56g | 44% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/45g | 0% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/32g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/39g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/39g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 18/138g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/43g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 0 in 1g | 17/10g (2·2·2·3·3·2·1·2·0·0) | 26/12g | 289/130g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 85% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 64' 78' |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 18/69g | 8% | — | — |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 8 in 2g | 42/10g (5·5·2·7·5·5·3·2·2·6) | 16/7g | 13/9g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' 64' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 6 in 2g | 15/10g (2·0·1·2·0·0·2·2·3·3) | 11/12g | 15/14g | 66% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 6 in 2g | 29/10g (4·2·1·6·5·2·3·0·2·4) | 3/2g | 4/3g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 87' |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 3 in 2g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·3·0·1·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 2 in 2g | 11/10g (0·2·0·2·1·2·2·0·2·0) | 3/7g | 4/10g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Oskar Baker | FWD | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 24% | — | 🏉 4' 55' 90' |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·2·0) | 4/6g | 6/8g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 2/13g | 28% | — | 🏉 48' 89' |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 4/7g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 1 in 2g | 17/10g (1·1·4·3·1·1·3·2·1·0) | 2/5g | 4/3g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 4/12g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/10g | 2/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 0 in 2g | 12/10g (2·1·3·2·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 36% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·3·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 35% | — | 🏉 8' 11' 39' |
| – | Jordan Croft | KF | 0 in 1g | 4/3g (2·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' |
| – | Lachie Jaques | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Michael Sellwood | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/12g | 7/14g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 28% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 25.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 18 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson | 24.5 | $1.77 | 63% | 25 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $2.00 | 85% | 19 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.91 | 68% | 25 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.78 | 76% | 16 ✓ |
| Josh Rachele ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.96 | 92% | 18 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.92 | 73% | 12 ✓ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 17.5 | $1.92 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| Sam Berry | 16.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 22 ✗ |
| Brayden Cook ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.86 | 87% | 13 ✓ |
| Isaac Cumming | 16.5 | $1.94 | 53% | 18 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo | 16.5 | $1.92 | 36% | 12 ✓ |
| Riley Thilthorpe | 14.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 13 ✓ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | 26.5 | $1.95 | 46% | 30 ✗ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 29 ✗ |
| Tom Liberatore | 25.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 28 ✗ |
| Matthew Kennedy ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 27 ✗ |
| Bailey Dale | 23.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 20 ✓ |
| Connor Budarick ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 94% | 21 ✓ |
| Ryley Sanders | 19.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 19 ✓ |
| Tim English ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 15 ✓ |
| Lachie Jaques ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.85 | 73% | 16 ✓ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.80 | 69% | 24 ✗ |
| Bailey Williams | 17.5 | $1.95 | 43% | 23 ✗ |
| Lachlan Bramble | 16.5 | $1.94 | 45% | 14 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r2-adelaide-crows-v-western-bulldogs
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-03-20 11:42 UTC (latest tip update)