# Richmond v Hawthorn — AFL Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Richmond v Hawthorn
Sun, 19 July, 01:10 pm AEST · MCG · Round 19

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.05 (edge -21.4%) — model probability 73.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +49.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 38 · Predicted total: 167

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Richmond | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 67.4pts | Avg Score | 94.6pts |
| 95.8pts | Avg Conceded | 84.0pts |
| -28.4pts | Avg Margin | 10.6pts |
| 335.8 | Disposals | 382.6 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 47.0 | Tackles | 57.4 |
| 32.4 | Clearances | 38.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | R14 L · R15 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L | 67.4 |
| Hawthorn | R13 L · R15 W · R16 W · R17 L · R18 W | 94.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-19 05:53 UTC (latest tip update)