# Richmond v Hawthorn — AFL Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 52 – 122 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn demolish Richmond._

Half time: 18 – 81 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 26% / Hawthorn 74% · MCG · Sun, 19 July, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Patrick Retschko (41'), Mykelti Lefau (43'), Sam Lalor (94'), Tom Brown (84'), Tom Lynch (88' Tipped ⚡), Kane McAuliffe (90') · Hawthorn: Nick Watson (7' ×5 1st Tipped 🎯), Mitch Lewis (11' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Will McCabe (46'), Josh Battle (47'), Jarman Impey (52'), Jack Gunston (75' Tipped ⚡), Ollie Greeves (78'), Mabior Chol (94' Tipped ⚡), Noah Mraz (95')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 74% | Won |
| Richmond | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 38.3 predicted → 70 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 July 2026, 09:59 pm · Last updated: 19 July 2026, 03:53 pm_

Richmond 52–122 Hawthorn in AFL Round 19 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hawthorn beat Richmond by 70 points at the MCG, 122 to 52. Fair result on paper. Except Richmond won the clearance count, 35 to 29, which tells you the ball actually started in the Tigers' hands more often than not. What happened to it after that is the whole story.

Because everywhere else, Hawthorn simply had more of it and did more with it. 431 disposals to 329, and 79.3% efficiency to Richmond's 70.8%, which means the Hawks weren't just winning the footy, they were keeping it once they had it. Marks tell the same tale in bolder print: 107 to 69. Hawthorn were taking the ball clean and moving it clean, Richmond were scrambling for it and spilling it.

The scoreboard ran away early and never came back. Hawthorn led 34-5 at quarter time, already a 29-point gap before most sides have found their groove. By half time it was 81-18, meaning the Hawks piled on 47 points in the second term alone. From there it was 107-29 at the last change, an extra 26, before Richmond actually won the final quarter on the ledger, 23 to 15, in what was by then a dead rubber. The margin swelled from 29 to 63 to 78 to 70, so if anything the last quarter flattered Richmond slightly rather than the other way round.

Go looking for where it was actually decided and the forward line numbers do the explaining. Hawthorn came in rated 1311 to Richmond's 850 up forward, the biggest gap of any line on the ground, and it showed: 14 marks inside 50 to 12 isn't dramatic by itself, but combined with 60 inside 50s to 51 and vastly superior efficiency, Hawthorn simply created more shots and made more of them count. Intercepts, 67 to 59, back that up from the other end. Richmond's defence, rated 1145 to Hawthorn's 1226, wasn't disgraced, it just kept getting served ball moving forward at pace off turnovers it couldn't lay a glove on.

Tackle numbers, 68 to 50, say Hawthorn also out-worked Richmond without the ball, which matters when a side's built its last five games on pressure the way Hawthorn had, averaging 57.4 tackles across that stretch to Richmond's 47. Form lines pointed this way regardless. Hawthorn arrived on a 3-2 last five, averaging 94.6 points scored and conceding just 84. Richmond were the reverse image entirely, five straight losses, 67.4 scored, 95.8 conceded, an average margin of minus 28.4. Nothing about Saturday broke that pattern, it just amplified it.

Alphr's model called the winner, Hawthorn at 74%, and got that right. The margin was another matter. Pre-match the model had Hawthorn by 38.3 on a combined total of 167. The actual margin was 70, nearly double the projection, on a combined total of 174. Ratings had Hawthorn well ahead across the park too, strongest in the ruck at 1477 to 1179, but even that gap undersold how one-sided the forward battle would get. One from four on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 5 | 13 | 11 | 23 | 52 |
| Hawthorn | 34 | 47 | 26 | 15 | 122 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 329 | Disposals | **431** |
| 120 | Contested poss. | **122** |
| **35** | Clearances | 29 |
| 51 | Inside 50s | **60** |
| 69 | Marks | **107** |
| 12 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| 50 | Tackles | **68** |
| 26 | Hit-outs | **31** |
| 59 | Intercepts | **67** |
| 70.8% | Disposal eff. | **79.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 74% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 38.3 but the actual margin was 70 points. Hawthorn led 18–81 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 70. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.05 (edge -21.4%) — model probability 73.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +49.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 38 · Predicted total: 167

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hawthorn here: 74% to see off Richmond. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hawthorn sit 589 ELO points clear, 1692 to 1103. Form leans Hawthorn's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Richmond.

Hawthorn own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hawthorn by 38.3, with the two sides combining for about 167. Hawthorn to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Richmond | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 67.4pts | Avg Score | 94.6pts |
| 95.8pts | Avg Conceded | 84.0pts |
| -28.4pts | Avg Margin | 10.6pts |
| 335.8 | Disposals | 382.6 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 47.0 | Tackles | 57.4 |
| 32.4 | Clearances | 38.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | R14 L · R15 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L | 67.4 |
| Hawthorn | R13 L · R15 W · R16 W · R17 L · R18 W | 94.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hawthorn lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R8 | Hawthorn | 109 – 44 | Richmond |
| 2024 | R23 | Hawthorn | 131 – 68 | Richmond |
| 2024 | R14 | Richmond | 49 – 97 | Hawthorn |
| 2023 | R19 | Richmond | 96 – 95 | Hawthorn |
| 2022 | R22 | Richmond | 128 – 67 | Hawthorn |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 113 · 171 | 192 · 153 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 85/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.4/g | 21.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.1/g | 9.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70% | 67% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 29 · 76 | 31 · 52 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.8/g | 20.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.7% | 70.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 10 | 16 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.4/g | 14.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.9% | 81.1% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.48) -3% · Forwards 4.21/g (lg 4.46) -6% · Key Forwards 3.44/g (lg 3.85) -11%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.52) +31% · Key Forwards 4.97/g (lg 3.85) +29% · Midfielders 3.08/g (lg 2.48) +24%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 15 in 15g | 10/10g (2·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 16/16g | 72% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 14 in 17g | 6/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/3g | 26/34g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 13 in 16g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 15/23g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 11 in 16g | 10/10g (3·1·1·0·0·0·2·1·2·0) | 4/8g | 32/66g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 11 in 15g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·4·0·1) | 4/9g | 36/59g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 11 in 9g | 14/10g (3·2·0·1·1·3·2·2·0·0) | 36/17g | 162/76g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 88' |
| – | Sam Cumming | MID | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 6/7g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 8 in 7g | 12/10g (2·2·0·2·1·0·2·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 15/11g | 75% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 7 in 4g | 15/10g (3·0·1·2·1·1·2·3·2·0) | 4/4g | 35/47g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 14/38g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 20/111g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 13% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/10g | 28/98g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 32/95g | 16% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/22g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 17/149g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/33g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/8g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Kye Annand | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/103g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/31g | 16% | — | 🏉 84' |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 39 in 11g | 35/10g (5·4·3·3·5·0·6·5·1·3) | 26/15g | 249/124g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 39 in 15g | 28/10g (5·2·2·3·3·2·2·3·3·3) | 7/3g | 51/26g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.25 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 24' 57' 64' 69' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 25 in 17g | 14/10g (2·1·2·1·3·0·1·2·1·1) | 10/4g | 68/39g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 15' 26' 39' 49' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 23 in 12g | 20/10g (2·2·0·1·2·3·2·2·5·1) | 10/5g | 49/38g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 94' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 18 in 17g | 10/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·2·3) | 6/4g | 71/56g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 17 in 16g | 10/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·4·0·0·2) | 5/8g | 60/60g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 14 in 17g | 10/10g (3·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 36/46g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 9 in 17g | 9/10g (0·0·0·4·4·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 12/85g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 15/49g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 5 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 15/31g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 10/34g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/3g | 4/37g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 9/33g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/2g | 8/24g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 12/52g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 15/73g | 10% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/28g | 4% | — | — |
| – | William McCabe | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 31/87g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 3/31g | 0% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Noah Mraz | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Oliver Greeves | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 25.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 27 ✗ |
| Jayden Short | 23.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 16 ✓ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $2.00 | 72% | 11 ✓ |
| Kane McAuliffe | 19.5 | $1.78 | 64% | 14 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia | 18.5 | $1.88 | 38% | 25 ✗ |
| Patrick Retschko | 17.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 19 ✗ |
| James Trezise | 17.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 7 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 27.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 19 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 65% | 34 ✗ |
| Josh Ward | 24.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 20 ✓ |
| James Sicily | 22.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 26 ✗ |
| Cam Mackenzie | 22.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 20 ✓ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 72% | 12 ✓ |
| Connor Macdonald | 21.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 33 ✗ |
| Josh Battle | 20.5 | $2.00 | 50% | 27 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 19.5 | $1.87 | 41% | 27 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Richmond 1103 · Hawthorn 1692 · ELO difference: 589 in favour of Hawthorn

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Richmond | Hawthorn | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1076 (best 1270) | 1163 (best 1366) | Hawthorn +87 |
| Forwards | 850 (best 1124) | 1311 (best 1491) | Hawthorn +461 |
| Defence | 1145 (best 1248) | 1226 (best 1436) | Hawthorn +81 |
| Ruck | 1179 (best 1213) | 1477 (best 1477) | Hawthorn +298 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Hawthorn |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Hawthorn |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hawthorn |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Hawthorn |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Hawthorn |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Hawthorn |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Hawthorn predicted to win by 38 points · Predicted total: 167 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-19 05:53 UTC (latest tip update)