# Port Adelaide v Fremantle — AFL Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 75 – 103 Fremantle

_Fremantle roar back to deny Port Adelaide._

Half time: 54 – 42 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 45% / Fremantle 55% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 18 July, 01:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Jack Whitlock (9' 1st Tipped ⚡), Joe Richards (23'), Dante Visentini (26' ×2), Corey Durdin (58' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Zadow (59' ×2), Jase Burgoyne (81') · Fremantle: Jye Amiss (13' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Michael Frederick (14' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (18' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Voss (30' Tipped ⚡), Hayden Young (32'), Neil Erasmus (68'), Isaiah Dudley (71' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 55% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.1 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 July 2026, 09:28 pm · Last updated: 18 July 2026, 04:18 pm_

Port Adelaide 75–103 Fremantle in AFL Round 19 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Port Adelaide wanted to play it clean and controlled, working the ball to a contest and trusting their hands. Fremantle just wanted to keep it moving. By full time the volume won: Fremantle finished with 379 disposals to Port's 341, and where it counted, inside their forward 50, they turned chances into marks at nearly double the rate, 16 to 8. That's the whole game in one column of numbers.

The scoreboard didn't reflect any of this early on. Port Adelaide led 33-31 at quarter time and stretched it to 54-42 at the main break, playing exactly the sort of contained, high-marking footy their profile suggested, 100 marks for the game against Fremantle's 86. But patience only holds if you can keep the ball long enough to use it, and Port's touch let them down when Fremantle lifted. Fremantle scored 38 points to Port's 7 in the third term alone, turning a 12-point deficit into a 19-point lead, 80-61 at the three-quarter time siren. Port managed 14 more in the last, Fremantle 23, and the margin ballooned out to 28.

The contested numbers back up why that third-quarter burst happened. Fremantle won the contested possession count 133 to 122 and matched Port at the clearances, level at 36 apiece, but it was disposal efficiency that separated the sides, 78.1% for Fremantle against 73.6% for Port. Fremantle also went inside 50 more often, 55 times to 47, and tackled harder, 67 to 58. Port held the hit-out count, 37 to 35, and the intercept numbers were dead level at 67 apiece, but neither of those edges mattered once Fremantle started hitting targets and finding marks up forward.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the ratings coming in. Fremantle's forward line rated at 1110 against Port's 925, and their ruck edge was significant too, 1205 to 1065. Port's one clear advantage was defence, 1222 to 1118, and for two quarters that showed. It just couldn't hold once Fremantle's forward and ruck strength started asserting itself in the third term.

Form lines told the same story before a ball was bounced. Fremantle arrived at 4 wins from their last 5, averaging 106.6 points a game with an average winning margin of 40.2. Port were 2 from 5, average margin basically level at 0.8. Fremantle's disposal average, 369.8, dwarfed Port's 320.4, and this game landed almost exactly on script.

Alphr's model had Fremantle at 55% and predicted them to win by 10.1 points off ratings of 1822 to 1409. The winner was right. The margin wasn't: Fremantle got there by 28, not 10, largely because of that one lopsided third quarter. Still, the model landed 3 from 4 on this one, correctly picking Port to cover the 47.5-point line and nailing the 1-39 margin band. Wins and misses, all of it, but the read on who'd win, and roughly by how much class, held up fine.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 33 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 75 |
| Fremantle | 31 | 11 | 38 | 23 | 103 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Disposals | **379** |
| 122 | Contested poss. | **133** |
| 36 | Clearances | 36 |
| 47 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| **100** | Marks | 86 |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| 58 | Tackles | **67** |
| **37** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| 67 | Intercepts | 67 |
| 73.6% | Disposal eff. | **78.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.1 but the actual margin was 28 points. Fremantle trailed 54–42 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 75–103. The model went 3/4 on this match. Port Adelaide covered the 47.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.05 (edge -40.1%) — model probability 55.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +47.5 @ $1.89 (edge +37.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 10 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Fremantle are the call at 55%, but Port Adelaide stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Fremantle sit 413 ELO points clear, 1822 to 1409. Form leans Fremantle's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Port Adelaide.

Fremantle own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Fremantle by 10.1, with the two sides combining for about 168. Lean Fremantle, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 77.0pts | Avg Score | 106.6pts |
| 76.2pts | Avg Conceded | 66.4pts |
| 0.8pts | Avg Margin | 40.2pts |
| 320.4 | Disposals | 369.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 55.4 | Tackles | 54.6 |
| 37.2 | Clearances | 30.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | R14 L · R15 L · R16 W · R17 W · R18 L | 77.0 |
| Fremantle | R13 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 L · R18 W | 106.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Port Adelaide lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R22 | Port Adelaide | 86 – 92 | Fremantle |
| 2025 | R11 | Fremantle | 100 – 51 | Port Adelaide |
| 2024 | R24 | Fremantle | 67 – 87 | Port Adelaide |
| 2024 | R5 | Port Adelaide | 66 – 63 | Fremantle |
| 2023 | R23 | Fremantle | 58 – 74 | Port Adelaide |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 121 · 140 | 170 · 124 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 94/g | 90/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.4/g | 15.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.2/g | 11.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66% | 70.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 55 · 42 | 70 · 34 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 5.4/g |
| Disposals | 144/g | 166/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.2/g | 28.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.6/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.2% | 72.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 4 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 101/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.1/g | 9.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.6% | 83.9% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.11/g (lg 4.45) -8% · Key Forwards 3.42/g (lg 3.84) -11% · Midfielders 2.13/g (lg 2.48) -14%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.09) +10% · Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.52) +2% · Key Forwards 3.89/g (lg 3.84) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 26 in 17g | 14/10g (2·1·1·1·1·2·0·3·1·2) | 1/4g | 26/16g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' 73' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 18 in 17g | 9/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·2·0·3·0) | 0/1g | 11/12g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 13 in 17g | 10/10g (2·0·2·0·2·1·0·2·0·1) | 1/1g | 10/17g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 8 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 15/23g | 40% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 9/31g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/4g | 12/39g | 24% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 47/130g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 17/63g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/13g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 2/12g | 18% | — | 🏉 26' 28' |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/51g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/22g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/18g | 55/144g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 11/7g | 87/67g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 11/83g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Bamert | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 1/75g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 4/39g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Zadow | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | — | 🏉 59' 86' |
| – | Balyn O'Brien | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/28g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 41 in 17g | 25/10g (3·2·2·2·3·4·2·0·3·4) | 5/5g | 9/8g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 66' 71' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 39 in 17g | 22/10g (0·3·2·4·4·2·3·1·1·2) | 4/5g | 10/6g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' 40' 67' 89' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 32 in 16g | 25/10g (0·1·5·3·4·4·2·2·2·2) | 6/3g | 5/3g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 19 in 17g | 9/10g (1·1·1·2·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 3/3g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.53 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 19 in 17g | 13/10g (1·0·1·0·1·3·3·2·2·0) | 6/9g | 5/12g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 63% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 16 in 12g | 14/10g (1·3·1·1·0·2·0·4·0·2) | 7/5g | 4/4g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 74' 89' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 11 in 17g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 6/2g | 2/3g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 10 in 17g | 8/10g (3·0·0·1·1·3·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 4/10g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·3·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 40% | — | 🏉 32' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 6 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 6 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 28% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/12g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 8/9g | 0/6g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 2/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 2/11g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Wines ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $2.00 | 72% | 30 ✗ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $2.00 | 70% | 21 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.95 | 91% | 18 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 19.5 | $1.97 | 60% | 24 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 18.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 17 ✓ |
| Joe Richards ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 31 ✗ |
| Logan Evans | 17.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 23 ✗ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 74% | 28 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 26.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 30 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 72% | 15 ✓ |
| Karl Worner | 21.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 19 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.76 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 21.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 22 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.83 | 80% | 20 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 22 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson | 18.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 16 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | 17.5 | $1.90 | 42% | 16 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Port Adelaide 1409 · Fremantle 1822 · ELO difference: 413 in favour of Fremantle

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Port Adelaide | Fremantle | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1098 (best 1266) | 1168 (best 1323) | Fremantle +70 |
| Forwards | 925 (best 1163) | 1110 (best 1456) | Fremantle +184 |
| Defence | 1222 (best 1374) | 1118 (best 1333) | Port Adelaide +104 |
| Ruck | 1065 (best 1120) | 1205 (best 1224) | Fremantle +141 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Fremantle |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Fremantle |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Fremantle |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Fremantle |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Fremantle |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Port Adelaide |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Fremantle predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-18 06:18 UTC (latest tip update)