# Geelong Cats v St Kilda — AFL Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Geelong Cats v St Kilda
Thu, 16 July, 07:30 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 19

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $2.43 (edge +35.3%) — model probability 76.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +11.5 @ $1.90 (edge +13.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 2 · Predicted total: 168

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Geelong Cats | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 88.6pts | Avg Score | 92.6pts |
| 88.6pts | Avg Conceded | 79.6pts |
| 0.0pts | Avg Margin | 13.0pts |
| 357.6 | Disposals | 399.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 55.2 | Tackles | 57.2 |
| 38.0 | Clearances | 36.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | R13 L · R14 W · R15 L · R17 L · R18 L | 88.6 |
| St Kilda | R13 L · R14 W · R15 L · R17 W · R18 W | 92.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-16 12:19 UTC (latest tip update)