# Geelong Cats v St Kilda — AFL Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 102 – 75 St Kilda

_Geelong Cats toy with St Kilda._

Half time: 50 – 23 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 24% / St Kilda 76% · GMHBA Stadium · Thu, 16 July, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Tom Atkins (5' 1st), Jay Polkinghorne (17' ×2), James Worpel (19'), Gryan Miers (39' ×3), Oliver Henry (48' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Dangerfield (80' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Dempsey (84' ×2), Final quarter (32m 54s)Bailey Smith (69') · St Kilda: Hugo Garcia (26'), Rowan Marshall (29' ×2), Jack Higgins (58' Tipped ⚡), Campbell Lake (72'), Liam Ryan (77' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Max Hall (87' ×2), Jack Silvagni (77'), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (94')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 76% | Lost |
| Geelong Cats | 24% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 27 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 July 2026, 06:58 pm · Last updated: 16 July 2026, 10:19 pm_

Geelong Cats 102–75 St Kilda in AFL Round 19 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong Cats' second term is where this one got away from St Kilda. The Cats led by 14 at quarter time, 26-12, then piled on 24 points to St Kilda's 11 in the second quarter to take a 50-23 lead into the main break. That 13-point swing inside twelve minutes of footy did more damage than anything else across the four quarters, and St Kilda never found an answer for it.

From there the margin held rather than grew. Geelong took a 77-48 lead into the final change, and St Kilda actually won the last quarter, 27 points to 25, closing the gap slightly but never threatening a genuine comeback. Final score: Geelong Cats 102, St Kilda 75, at GMHBA Stadium. A 27-point win built almost entirely in that one lethal second term.

The inside 50 count explains why Geelong could afford to coast a little late. They went forward 61 times to St Kilda's 48, a 13-entry gap that gave them first use of the ball in the right areas all day. Once inside 50, they made it count: 15 marks inside 50 to St Kilda's 11, and 110 contested and uncontested marks overall against St Kilda's 72. That's a side taking the ball cleanly and often in the areas that matter.

St Kilda's game was built on pressure rather than entries. They laid 82 tackles to Geelong's 53, a serious differential that says they were happy to defend ground and force turnovers rather than dictate terms with the ball. It didn't translate to the scoreboard. St Kilda actually edged the disposal count, 410 to 408, and matched Geelong dead even on contested possessions at 136 apiece, so this wasn't a case of Geelong dominating the footy. It was a case of Geelong doing more with what they had.

The ruck battle deserves a mention because the numbers going in suggested the opposite result. St Kilda arrived rated 1502 in the ruck to Geelong's 1159, about as lopsided a mismatch as these positional ratings produce.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 26 | 24 | 27 | 25 | 102 |
| St Kilda | 12 | 11 | 25 | 27 | 75 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 408 | Disposals | **410** |
| 136 | Contested poss. | 136 |
| **43** | Clearances | 41 |
| **61** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| **110** | Marks | 72 |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 53 | Tackles | **82** |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 34 |
| **74** | Intercepts | 67 |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Geelong Cats defied the model's 76% prediction for St Kilda, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.3 but the actual margin was 27 points. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 181.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $2.43 (edge +35.3%) — model probability 76.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +11.5 @ $1.90 (edge +13.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 2 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Kilda here: 76% to see off Geelong Cats. The ratings say otherwise: Geelong Cats sit 188 ELO points clear, 1669 to 1481, so the model is backing St Kilda against the ratings gap. Form leans St Kilda's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Geelong Cats.

St Kilda own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has St Kilda by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 168. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back St Kilda to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Geelong Cats | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 88.6pts | Avg Score | 92.6pts |
| 88.6pts | Avg Conceded | 79.6pts |
| 0.0pts | Avg Margin | 13.0pts |
| 357.6 | Disposals | 399.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 55.2 | Tackles | 57.2 |
| 38.0 | Clearances | 36.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | R13 L · R14 W · R15 L · R17 L · R18 L | 88.6 |
| St Kilda | R13 L · R14 W · R15 L · R17 W · R18 W | 92.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Kilda lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R19 | Geelong Cats | 113 – 82 | St Kilda |
| 2025 | R2 | St Kilda | 98 – 91 | Geelong Cats |
| 2024 | R23 | St Kilda | 107 – 89 | Geelong Cats |
| 2024 | R1 | Geelong Cats | 76 – 68 | St Kilda |
| 2023 | R23 | St Kilda | 88 – 55 | Geelong Cats |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 175 · 157 | 144 · 150 |
| Goal Assists | 4.8/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 100/g |
| Inside 50s | 20/g | 17.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.1/g | 8.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 64.2% | 68.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 48 · 41 | 52 · 43 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 147/g | 155/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.7/g | 23.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.2% | 70.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 10 | 25 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.4/g | 11.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.2% | 80% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.6/g (lg 2.48) +5% · Key Forwards 3.98/g (lg 3.85) +3% · Forwards 4.16/g (lg 4.45) -7%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.96/g (lg 3.85) +3% · Forwards 4.35/g (lg 4.45) -2% · Midfielders 2.16/g (lg 2.48) -13%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 30 in 17g | 15/10g (3·2·2·0·0·1·2·2·3·0) | 3/4g | 44/25g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 77% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 26 in 16g | 17/10g (1·4·2·2·2·1·2·2·0·1) | 4/5g | 42/30g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' 72' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 25 in 17g | 19/10g (4·3·5·1·1·1·0·0·0·4) | 5/3g | 24/21g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 20 in 17g | 12/10g (1·1·0·0·2·1·2·0·2·3) | 7/4g | 28/30g | 72% | — | 🏉 84' 75' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 17 in 13g | 13/10g (1·2·1·1·1·1·1·0·5·0) | 13/17g | 85/76g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' |
| – | Oliver Wiltshire | FWD | 9 in 9g | 10/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·3·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·2·1·2·0) | 7/10g | 48/47g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 4/18g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 15/65g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 19/45g | 28% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/10g | 2/4g | 26% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/20g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 3 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/57g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/24g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/10g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 12/59g | 16% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/17g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/40g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 3/73g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 6/52g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 42/57g | 32% | — | 🏉 39' 45' 90' |
| – | Jay Polkinghorne | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 17' 81' |
| – | Mitchell Edwards | RUC | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 26 in 12g | 24/10g (1·3·1·1·3·5·6·0·2·2) | 7/6g | 1/2g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' 92' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 24 in 17g | 15/10g (2·0·2·0·0·2·4·1·1·3) | 10/7g | 5/4g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 22 in 11g | 21/10g (2·2·2·0·4·5·1·1·2·2) | 15/12g | 5/4g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 18 in 14g | 11/10g (2·2·0·3·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 7/6g | 2/3g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 17 in 17g | 8/10g (0·1·2·2·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 64% | — | 🏉 87' 90' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 15 in 16g | 11/10g (0·4·1·1·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 4/4g | 2/2g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 11 in 13g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 2/2g | 50% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 10 in 15g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·2·2·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 9 in 17g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 7/23g | 2/6g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 9 in 16g | 8/10g (3·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 6/12g | 3/6g | 44% | — | 🏉 29' 70' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 11/12g | 4/6g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | 7 in 7g | 8/10g (0·1·0·3·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 18% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Lake | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 31.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 35 ✗ |
| Max Holmes | 29.5 | $1.83 | 62% | 23 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries | 21.5 | $1.79 | 65% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom Stewart | 21.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 22 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 22 ✗ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 18.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 22 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 16.5 | $1.96 | 40% | 21 ✗ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 29.5 | $1.83 | 39% | 21 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.89 | 67% | 24 ✓ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $2.00 | 66% | 30 ✗ |
| Max Hall ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 21 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 22.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 23 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.97 | 77% | 33 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 22.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 15 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilson | 21.5 | $1.94 | 55% | 29 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Geelong Cats 1669 · St Kilda 1481 · ELO difference: 188 in favour of Geelong Cats

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Geelong Cats | St Kilda | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1251 (best 1418) | 1296 (best 1519) | St Kilda +45 |
| Forwards | 1163 (best 1600) | 1186 (best 1438) | St Kilda +23 |
| Defence | 1058 (best 1381) | 1322 (best 1600) | St Kilda +264 |
| Ruck | 1159 (best 1159) | 1502 (best 1502) | St Kilda +343 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Geelong Cats |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | St Kilda |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Kilda |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | St Kilda |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | St Kilda |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Geelong Cats |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — St Kilda predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-16 12:19 UTC (latest tip update)