# Collingwood v Carlton — AFL Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 90 – 69 Carlton

_Collingwood see off Carlton._

Half time: 38 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 72% / Carlton 28% · MCG · Sat, 18 July, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Daniel McStay (3' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Tim Membrey (10' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Charlie West (43' Tipped ⚡), Beau McCreery (48'), Jordan de Goey (50'), Ned Long (81' ×2), Sam Swadling (84'), Dan Houston (71'), Angus Anderson (73') · Carlton: Brodie Kemp (20' Tipped ⚡), Ben Ainsworth (21' ×2), Mitch McGovern (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Walsh (77'), Patrick Cripps (88' ×2), Matthew Cottrell (85')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 72% | Won |
| Carlton | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.1 predicted → 21 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 July 2026, 10:19 pm · Last updated: 18 July 2026, 10:15 pm_

Collingwood 90–69 Carlton in AFL Round 19 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton will look at the disposal count and wonder how they lost this one by 21. They had more of the ball, 383 to 368, more clearances, 41 to 39, more inside 50s, 53 to 51, and a lot more marks, 111 to 87. On paper that's a side that should be right in the contest deep into the last quarter. Instead they went down 90 to 69 at the MCG.

The trouble is where that possession came from and what Collingwood did to stop it turning into scoreboard pressure. Carlton's disposal efficiency, 71.3 per cent, was barely behind Collingwood's 72.3. Fine users of the ball, in other words. But contested possession told a different story: Collingwood 128 to 115. That gap showed up everywhere else that mattered.

Hit-outs were the giveaway. Collingwood won that battle 49 to 18, which lines up with the pre-match ruck ratings, Collingwood 1476 to Carlton's 1000. That's not a small edge, that's a mismatch, and it fed first use of the ball at stoppages all day. Add the tackle count, 72 to 48, and you've got a picture of a Carlton side that could win the ball in general play but couldn't win it clean, and couldn't hold it once Collingwood arrived.

Marks inside 50 were close, 13 to 12 in Collingwood's favour, which suggests Carlton's forward line wasn't the problem. Intercepts were dead level, 60 apiece. So this wasn't a case of Collingwood locking the ball in their forward half all day. It was a case of Collingwood doing the dirty work better everywhere the ball actually changed hands.

The scoreline: Collingwood 90, Carlton 69. Collingwood led from the first change and never gave it up. Quarter-time had them up 18-16, a two-point edge. By half-time it was 38-30, an eight-point margin. Three-quarter-time had Collingwood out to 70-56, a 14-point break.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 18 | 20 | 32 | 20 | 90 |
| Carlton | 16 | 14 | 26 | 13 | 69 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 368 | Disposals | **383** |
| **128** | Contested poss. | 115 |
| 39 | Clearances | **41** |
| 51 | Inside 50s | **53** |
| 87 | Marks | **111** |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| **72** | Tackles | 48 |
| **49** | Hit-outs | 18 |
| 60 | Intercepts | 60 |
| **72.3%** | Disposal eff. | 71.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 72% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.1 but the actual margin was 21 points. Collingwood led 38–30 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 21. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 168.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.67 (edge +12.6%) — model probability 72.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +6.5 @ $1.89 (edge +3.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 3 · Predicted total: 167

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Collingwood here: 72% to see off Carlton. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Collingwood sit 98 ELO points clear, 1555 to 1457.

Collingwood own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Collingwood by 3.1, with the two sides combining for about 167. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Collingwood to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Collingwood | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 90.4pts | Avg Score | 78.0pts |
| 78.0pts | Avg Conceded | 74.2pts |
| 12.4pts | Avg Margin | 3.8pts |
| 386.0 | Disposals | 400.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 59.0 | Tackles | 54.8 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 37.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | R13 L · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W | 90.4 |
| Carlton | R13 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 L | 78.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Collingwood lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Carlton | 83 – 88 | Collingwood | Carlton 60% ✗ |
| 2025 | R17 | Carlton | 59 – 115 | Collingwood | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | Collingwood | 63 – 46 | Carlton | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Collingwood | 84 – 81 | Carlton | not priced |
| 2024 | R8 | Carlton | 79 – 85 | Collingwood | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 150 · 139 | 140 · 138 |
| Goal Assists | 5/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 105/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.6/g | 19/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.2/g | 8.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.3% | 68.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 53 · 44 | 45 · 63 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 140/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.4/g | 18.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.3% | 70% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 9 | 8 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 136/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.4/g | 13.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.9% | 76.7% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.67/g (lg 0.52) +29% · Defenders 1.27/g (lg 1.08) +18% · Forwards 4.58/g (lg 4.46) +3%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.52) +6% · Defenders 1.08/g (lg 1.08) +0% · Midfielders 2.34/g (lg 2.48) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 29 in 17g | 17/10g (1·3·1·2·1·2·1·0·3·3) | 21/14g | 57/49g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 6' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 22 in 13g | 17/10g (1·1·2·0·3·0·3·2·3·2) | 35/15g | 65/37g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' 80' 91' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 20 in 16g | 15/10g (1·0·2·3·1·2·1·3·1·1) | 5/9g | 46/69g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 16 in 16g | 9/10g (2·0·0·0·1·2·3·1·0·0) | 15/13g | 135/123g | 54% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Angus Anderson | FWD | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (1·0·2·1·1·1·2·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 5/5g | 80% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 9 in 16g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·2·1·2) | 11/13g | 34/68g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 7 in 16g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 46/66g | 28% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 7/20g | 53/164g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/25g | 83/192g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 6/31g | 22% | — | 🏉 81' 87' |
| – | Sam Swadling | MID | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 75% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 14/22g | 107/190g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/13g | 9/40g | 20% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 39/80g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 16/147g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Charlie West | KF | 1 in 2g | 2/3g (1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/13g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Harrison | FWD | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 9/12g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 31/97g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 4/38g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 3/38g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 3/86g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Puncher | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 26 in 17g | 11/10g (1·3·0·2·0·0·0·2·1·2) | 15/11g | 44/50g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 72' |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 24 in 17g | 13/10g (3·0·1·2·2·2·1·0·2·0) | 2/4g | 11/26g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 22 in 16g | 14/10g (0·3·2·1·0·3·1·3·1·0) | 21/9g | 106/55g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 76% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 17 in 17g | 10/10g (2·2·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 10/10g | 11/12g | 70% | — | 🏉 21' 75' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 15 in 16g | 12/10g (0·3·0·2·3·1·2·1·0·0) | 10/12g | 33/29g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 11 in 15g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·3·2·1·0) | 2/3g | 9/16g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 10 in 17g | 8/10g (1·1·2·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 8/19g | 42/96g | 50% | — | 🏉 88' 75' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 9 in 13g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·2·2·0) | 3/12g | 20/55g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·0·3·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/6g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/14g | 16/42g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 15/54g | 18% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 11/32g | 42% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/11g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/48g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/28g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 16/44g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/24g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Liam Reidy | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 2/38g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wade Derksen | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos ⚡ Under | 33.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 36 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.77 | 68% | 23 ✓ |
| Jordan De Goey | 23.5 | $1.77 | 66% | 25 ✗ |
| Dan Houston | 21.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 25 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 19.5 | $1.78 | 61% | 21 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 19.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 17 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.78 | 72% | 18 ✓ |
| Edward Allan ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 16 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 16 ✓ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 30.5 | $1.85 | 63% | 25 ✓ |
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.93 | 62% | 29 ✗ |
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 26 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps | 24.5 | $1.99 | 37% | 30 ✗ |
| Nic Newman | 24.5 | $1.97 | 57% | 19 ✓ |
| Oliver Florent | 20.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 24 ✗ |
| Billy Wilson ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 69% | 21 ✗ |
| Nick Haynes | 17.5 | $1.80 | 48% | 15 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Collingwood 1555 · Carlton 1457 · ELO difference: 98 in favour of Collingwood

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Collingwood | Carlton | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1185 (best 1370) | 1248 (best 1483) | Carlton +62 |
| Forwards | 1252 (best 1600) | 1057 (best 1353) | Collingwood +196 |
| Defence | 1264 (best 1392) | 1283 (best 1481) | Carlton +20 |
| Ruck | 1476 (best 1476) | 1000 (best 1000) | Collingwood +476 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Collingwood |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Carlton |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Collingwood |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Collingwood |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Carlton |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Collingwood |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Collingwood predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 167 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-18 12:15 UTC (latest tip update)