# Collingwood v Carlton — AFL Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Collingwood v Carlton
Sat, 18 July, 07:35 pm AEST · MCG · Round 19

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.67 (edge +12.6%) — model probability 72.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +6.5 @ $1.89 (edge +3.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 3 · Predicted total: 167

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Collingwood | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 90.4pts | Avg Score | 78.0pts |
| 78.0pts | Avg Conceded | 74.2pts |
| 12.4pts | Avg Margin | 3.8pts |
| 386.0 | Disposals | 400.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 59.0 | Tackles | 54.8 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 37.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | R13 L · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W | 90.4 |
| Carlton | R13 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 L | 78.0 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-18 12:15 UTC (latest tip update)