# St Kilda v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### St Kilda v Port Adelaide
Sat, 11 July, 01:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 18

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.56 (edge +25.7%) — model probability 89.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +13.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 23 · Predicted total: 169

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Kilda | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 88.6pts | Avg Score | 77.8pts |
| 88.8pts | Avg Conceded | 73.0pts |
| -0.2pts | Avg Margin | 4.8pts |
| 380.0 | Disposals | 326.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 55.2 | Tackles | 55.2 |
| 37.8 | Clearances | 37.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | R12 L · R13 L · R14 W · R15 L · R17 W | 88.6 |
| Port Adelaide | R13 W · R14 L · R15 L · R16 W · R17 W | 77.8 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-11 06:27 UTC (latest tip update)