# St Kilda v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 87 – 73 Port Adelaide

_St Kilda see off Port Adelaide._

Half time: 61 – 25 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 90% / Port Adelaide 10% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 11 July, 01:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Anthony Caminiti (2' 1st), Cooper Sharman (5' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Liam Ryan (35' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Higgins (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Bradley Hill (54'), Mattaes Phillipou (60'), Rowan Marshall (98'), Mitch Owens (70' Tipped ⚡), Mason Wood (79') · Port Adelaide: Corey Durdin (38' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Bamert (50'), Jase Burgoyne (68'), Jason Horne-Francis (71' ×2), Logan Evans (75'), Dante Visentini (83'), Aliir Aliir (95'), Joe Berry (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 90% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 10% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 22.9 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 9 July 2026, 08:41 pm · Last updated: 11 July 2026, 04:27 pm_

St Kilda 87–73 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 18 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had St Kilda as strong favourites against Port Adelaide, predicting a 90% chance of victory with a 22.9-point margin. The Saints delivered at Marvel Stadium, winning 87-73, a 14-point margin that still validated the model's read.

St Kilda's early dominance set the tone. They led 61-25 at half-time, a commanding position that Port Adelaide chipped away at by the third quarter, narrowing the gap to 73-65. The Saints' initial burst was crucial. They were efficient with the ball, racking up 437 disposals to Port's 308, and maintained a cleaner disposal efficiency of 79.0% compared to Port's 70.8%.

Despite St Kilda's higher midfield rating, Port Adelaide edged them in clearances, 40 to 35. However, St Kilda countered with sheer volume and smart positioning, evident in their 14 marks inside 50 compared to Port's 7. It wasn't just about winning possession, but making it count.

Port Adelaide's ruck division was dominant, winning 57 hit-outs to St Kilda's 20. This should have set up more attacking opportunities, reflected in their 51 inside 50s. But St Kilda's defence was resolute, intercepting 67 Port Adelaide forward thrusts and blunting many potential attacks.

St Kilda's defence held firm, applying pressure across the ground. They laid 61 tackles to Port's 40, showing a clear difference in execution. Their superior defensive rating going in was backed up by their performance on the day.

Both teams came into the match with wins in their last outings. St Kilda's recent form was a mixed LLWLW, while Port Adelaide's WLLWW suggested momentum. Yet, St Kilda's ability to control the tempo and use the ball accurately made the difference.

The model's prediction of a 22.9-point spread was slightly off, but the Saints' 14-point victory was still within expectations. The combined total of 160 points was close to the predicted 169, showing the model's accuracy.

In the end, the model read the match well. St Kilda's composure and skillful execution secured the win. A tidy result. Just enough, but no more. Take the win, move on.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 26 | 35 | 12 | 14 | 87 |
| Port Adelaide | 8 | 17 | 40 | 8 | 73 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **437** | Disposals | 308 |
| **129** | Contested poss. | 119 |
| 35 | Clearances | **40** |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 51 |
| **126** | Marks | 85 |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **61** | Tackles | 40 |
| 20 | Hit-outs | **57** |
| **67** | Intercepts | 57 |
| **79.0%** | Disposal eff. | 70.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 90% probability. The predicted margin of 22.9 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.56 (edge +25.7%) — model probability 89.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +13.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 23 · Predicted total: 169

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Kilda here: 90% to see off Port Adelaide. Form leans Port Adelaide's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for St Kilda.

St Kilda own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has St Kilda by 22.9, with the two sides combining for about 169. St Kilda to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Kilda | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 88.6pts | Avg Score | 77.8pts |
| 88.8pts | Avg Conceded | 73.0pts |
| -0.2pts | Avg Margin | 4.8pts |
| 380.0 | Disposals | 326.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 55.2 | Tackles | 55.2 |
| 37.8 | Clearances | 37.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | R12 L · R13 L · R14 W · R15 L · R17 W | 88.6 |
| Port Adelaide | R13 W · R14 L · R15 L · R16 W · R17 W | 77.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 135 · 146 | 117 · 131 |
| Goal Assists | 4.4/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 98/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.1/g | 17.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.5/g | 9.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68% | 66.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 50 · 39 | 51 · 40 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 154/g | 145/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.2/g | 25.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.7/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.5% | 67.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 23 · 12 | 12 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 101/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.4/g | 8.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.7% | 79.1% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.18/g (lg 1.09) +8% · Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.51) +2% · Key Forwards 3.89/g (lg 3.85) +1%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Key Forwards 4.05/g (lg 3.85) +5% · Midfielders 2.6/g (lg 2.48) +5% · Forwards 4.16/g (lg 4.45) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 24 in 11g | 23/10g (1·1·3·1·1·3·5·6·0·2) | 7/6g | 36/20g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 37' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 21 in 16g | 14/10g (2·2·0·2·0·0·2·4·1·1) | 4/4g | 64/47g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 7' 13' |
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 20 in 10g | 20/10g (1·2·2·2·0·4·5·1·1·2) | 9/9g | 108/70g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 85' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 17 in 16g | 10/10g (2·0·1·2·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/2g | 17/21g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 17 in 13g | 12/10g (2·2·2·0·3·1·1·0·0·1) | 8/5g | 56/49g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 15 in 15g | 13/10g (2·0·4·1·1·1·1·0·1·2) | 1/4g | 21/29g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.52 AI 62% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 11 in 12g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 3/6g | 16/56g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 9 in 14g | 8/10g (2·0·2·0·0·2·2·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 17/30g | 46% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 10/21g | 23/91g | 36% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 8 in 15g | 8/10g (1·3·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 9/9g | 55/87g | 44% | — | 🏉 98' |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 7 in 16g | 6/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 9/23g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | 7 in 6g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·3·1·0·2·0·1) | 1/3g | 9/21g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 86/88g | 48% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 27/38g | 26% | — | 🏉 2' |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 7/6g | 32/47g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 10/48g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 7/48g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/86g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Lake | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/49g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/7g | 13% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 37 in 16g | 23/10g (4·3·4·1·1·1·2·1·3·3) | 13/8g | 21/12g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 24 in 16g | 14/10g (2·2·1·1·1·1·2·0·3·1) | 3/5g | 21/24g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 21 in 16g | 11/10g (1·0·0·0·3·3·2·0·1·1) | 6/6g | 8/17g | 68% | — | 🏉 71' 82' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 18 in 16g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·0·2·0·3) | 0/1g | 7/3g | 53% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 12 in 16g | 9/10g (0·2·0·2·0·2·1·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/4g | 40% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/5g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 2/12g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 6 in 7g | 10/10g (2·0·2·3·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 6/17g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 1/7g | 22% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 11/16g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 8/24g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/15g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 1/11g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 9/30g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/17g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 2/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Xavier Bamert | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/26g | 2% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 33.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 32 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.79 | 68% | 39 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 32 ✗ |
| Max Hall ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.90 | 77% | 19 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.94 | 66% | 34 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.83 | 66% | 27 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson | 21.5 | $1.80 | 61% | 23 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 29 ✗ |
| Mason Wood | 16.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 23 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | 29.5 | $1.92 | 59% | 26 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 23.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 23 ✓ |
| Ollie Wines | 21.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 18 ✓ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 21 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 19.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 20 ✗ |
| Logan Evans | 17.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 17 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 21 ✗ |
| Joe Richards | 16.5 | $2.01 | 58% | 19 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Kilda 1452 · Port Adelaide 1439 · ELO difference: 13 in favour of St Kilda

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | St Kilda | Port Adelaide | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1336 (best 1600) | 1236 (best 1361) | St Kilda +100 |
| Forwards | 1235 (best 1600) | 1088 (best 1281) | St Kilda +148 |
| Defence | 1369 (best 1600) | 1265 (best 1481) | St Kilda +104 |
| Ruck | 1410 (best 1410) | 1050 (best 1134) | St Kilda +360 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | St Kilda |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | St Kilda |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | St Kilda |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | St Kilda |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | St Kilda |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 90%** — St Kilda predicted to win by 23 points · Predicted total: 169 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-11 06:27 UTC (latest tip update)