# Melbourne v Richmond — AFL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Melbourne v Richmond
Sun, 12 July, 03:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 18

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.09 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 90.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +41.5 @ $1.90 (edge +6.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 35 · Predicted total: 168

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Melbourne | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 87.0pts | Avg Score | 65.6pts |
| 82.6pts | Avg Conceded | 107.6pts |
| 4.4pts | Avg Margin | -42.0pts |
| 342.2 | Disposals | 342.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 52.8 | Tackles | 44.6 |
| 35.2 | Clearances | 30.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | R12 L · R13 W · R14 W · R15 L · R17 W | 87.0 |
| Richmond | R12 L · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L · R17 L | 65.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-12 08:02 UTC (latest tip update)