# Fremantle v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 111 – 73 Sydney Swans

_Fremantle fight back to topple Sydney Swans from 22 down._

Half time: 11 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 25% / Sydney Swans 75% · Optus Stadium · Thu, 09 July, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Josh Treacy (63' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Voss (70' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Shai Bolton (73' ×2), Jye Amiss (89' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (34m 50s)Jye Amiss (60'), Mason Cox (72'), Michael Frederick (74' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Judd McVee (77') · Sydney Swans: Tom Papley (2' ×2 1st), Charlie Curnow (23' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Tom Hanily (28'), Jake Lloyd (87' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 75% | Lost |
| Fremantle | 25% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 12.8 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 July 2026, 07:08 pm · Last updated: 9 July 2026, 11:00 pm_

Fremantle 111–73 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 18 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle beat Sydney Swans 111-73 at Optus Stadium, and the 38-point margin makes it look like a stroll. It wasn't. Three-quarter time had Sydney Swans up 54-52. Whatever happened here, it happened almost entirely in the last quarter.

Work backward through the quarter-by-quarter and the story gets stranger. Sydney Swans led 24-5 at quarter time and 33-11 at half time, both handy buffers built on quick, clean footy early. By three-quarter time that lead had shrunk to two points, 54-52, which already tells you Fremantle had clawed hard through the third term. Then the last quarter arrived and Fremantle scored 59 points to Sydney Swans' 19, turning a two-point deficit into a 38-point win by the final siren. That's the number that actually decides this result, everything before it was a contest.

The whole-game stats explain why Fremantle had the depth to produce that kind of quarter, even if they don't explain the early scoreboard. Fremantle finished with 381 disposals to 339, and their disposal efficiency edged Sydney Swans too, 75.6% to 74.6%. They won clearances 39 to 31 and contested possessions 146 to 121, the kind of numbers that suggest a team slowly wearing the other down at the source. Inside 50s went Fremantle's way 65 to 47, and when they got there they made it count better, 14 marks inside 50 against 11. Hit-outs favoured Fremantle too, 36 to 31, giving their midfield first use more often than not.

Sydney Swans' answer to all that was pressure, not polish. They laid 70 tackles to Fremantle's 50, a big gap, and it's the one category where Sydney Swans clearly won the arm wrestle. But tackles without scoreboard impact only buy you time, they don't win you the game outright, and by the last quarter that pressure wasn't translating into scoring chances the way it had earlier.

What makes the result harder to square is the shape of these two sides heading in. Sydney Swans rated stronger everywhere on paper: midfield 1283 to 1184, forwards 1210 to 1094, defence 1228 to 1166, ruck 1478 to 1268. Alphr's own model had Sydney Swans favoured by 12.8 points and expected a combined score of 169. The final margin was 38 the other way, and the total points, 184, ran 15 higher than tipped. All four of the model's headline picks missed on this one.

Recent form offered a hint of how it could unravel, even if it didn't predict the scale. Sydney Swans came in scoring more heavily on average, 108 points to Fremantle's 105 across their last five, but they were also leaking far more, conceding 85.8 points a game against Fremantle's 67.4. Fremantle's average winning margin over that stretch, 37.6 points, was almost identical to the one they produced here. Sydney Swans' was 22.2. Put those two tendencies in the same stadium for four quarters, and eventually the gap in defensive discipline showed up exactly where it did: in a last quarter Fremantle won by 40 points.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 5 | 6 | 41 | 59 | 111 |
| Sydney Swans | 24 | 9 | 21 | 19 | 73 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| **381** | Disposals | 339 |
| **146** | Contested poss. | 121 |
| **39** | Clearances | 31 |
| **65** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| **77** | Marks | 71 |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 50 | Tackles | **70** |
| **36** | Hit-outs | 31 |
| **66** | Intercepts | 63 |
| **75.6%** | Disposal eff. | 74.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Fremantle defied the model's 75% prediction for Sydney Swans, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.8 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 184 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 169. Fremantle trailed 11–33 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 111–73. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $2.60 (edge +36.2%) — model probability 74.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +25.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 13 · Predicted total: 169

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sydney Swans here: 75% to see off Fremantle. The ratings say otherwise: Fremantle sit 60 ELO points clear, 1779 to 1719, so the model is backing Sydney Swans against the ratings gap.

Sydney Swans own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Midfield ELO, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. The margin model has Sydney Swans by 12.8, with the two sides combining for about 169. Sydney Swans to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 105.0pts | Avg Score | 108.0pts |
| 67.4pts | Avg Conceded | 85.8pts |
| 37.6pts | Avg Margin | 22.2pts |
| 379.8 | Disposals | 391.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 51.6 | Tackles | 59.2 |
| 32.0 | Clearances | 33.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | R12 W · R13 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 L | 105.0 |
| Sydney Swans | R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R16 L · R17 W | 108.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 160 · 114 | 162 · 119 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 89/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.3/g | 18.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.1/g | 10.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.7% | 69.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 67 · 34 | 86 · 48 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 5/g |
| Disposals | 165/g | 159/g |
| Inside 50s | 27.9/g | 29/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.2% | 69.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 10 | 10 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.1/g | 13.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 83.4% | 79.4% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.51) +35% · Forwards 4.2/g (lg 4.45) -6% · Midfielders 2.32/g (lg 2.48) -6%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.1/g (lg 4.45) -8% · Key Forwards 3.4/g (lg 3.85) -12% · Midfielders 2.16/g (lg 2.48) -13%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 37 in 16g | 24/10g (3·3·2·2·2·3·4·2·0·3) | 13/7g | 83/51g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 63' 66' 70' 79' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 37 in 16g | 23/10g (3·0·3·2·4·4·2·3·1·1) | 8/6g | 79/47g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 87% ✓ Scored | 🏉 89' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 30 in 15g | 26/10g (3·0·1·5·3·4·4·2·2·2) | 2/3g | 35/24g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' 83' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 19 in 16g | 9/10g (0·1·1·1·2·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 20/18g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 19 in 16g | 15/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·3·3·2·2) | 8/9g | 47/50g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 14 in 11g | 14/10g (2·1·3·1·1·0·2·0·4·0) | 6/8g | 75/63g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' 89' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 14 in 16g | 7/10g (2·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 40/31g | 64% | — | 🏉 73' 85' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 11 in 16g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·2·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 19/22g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 10 in 16g | 8/10g (0·3·0·0·1·1·3·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 41/62g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 6 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/10g | 28/74g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 5/32g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 34/97g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 4 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/38g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 2 in 9g | 4/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 12/13g | 24% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 10/26g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/46g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 9/61g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/69g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 21/75g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 12/37g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/12g | 2% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/27g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 2/98g | 0% | — | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 45 in 15g | 36/10g (3·7·1·1·2·8·2·3·3·6) | 15/9g | 26/8g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' 60' 64' 68' 62' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 25 in 14g | 15/10g (0·0·3·1·1·5·2·1·1·1) | 17/15g | 13/10g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 23 in 16g | 16/10g (3·0·1·1·0·3·2·1·4·1) | 7/8g | 11/8g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 14 in 11g | 13/10g (0·1·2·3·1·1·1·2·2·0) | 17/14g | 13/11g | 78% | — | 🏉 2' 49' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 12 in 5g | 17/10g (1·0·0·2·2·3·4·2·0·3) | 9/9g | 7/7g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 9 in 16g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 6/18g | 5/12g | 30% | — | 🏉 87' 92' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 8 in 15g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 4/13g | 34% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 5 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 2/10g | 22% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 3/11g | 4/11g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 7/11g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | MID | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 7/7g | 5/5g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/26g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tom Hanily | FWD | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (1·1·2·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 48% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harry Kyle | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | William Edwards | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 25.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 25 ✓ |
| Caleb Serong | 24.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 28 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 22.5 | $1.93 | 56% | 23 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 28 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 23 ✗ |
| Karl Worner ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 20 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 20.5 | $1.89 | 52% | 16 ✓ |
| Matthew Johnson ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 24 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson | 18.5 | $2.00 | 59% | 17 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 19 ✗ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | 17.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 19 ✗ |
| Judd McVee ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 17 ✗ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.83 | 71% | 25 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 25 ✗ |
| Errol Gulden | 24.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 30 ✗ |
| Callum Mills ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $2.00 | 64% | 26 ✗ |
| Chad Warner ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.92 | 67% | 23 ✓ |
| Angus Sheldrick | 19.5 | $1.96 | 61% | 8 ✓ |
| Matt Roberts | 18.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 15 ✓ |
| Jai Serong | 17.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 11 ✓ |
| Brodie Grundy | 17.5 | $1.80 | 41% | 16 ✓ |
| Tom McCartin | 16.5 | $2.00 | 50% | 23 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Fremantle 1779 · Sydney Swans 1719 · ELO difference: 60 in favour of Fremantle

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Fremantle | Sydney Swans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1184 (best 1393) | 1283 (best 1394) | Sydney Swans +100 |
| Forwards | 1094 (best 1322) | 1210 (best 1540) | Sydney Swans +116 |
| Defence | 1166 (best 1479) | 1228 (best 1488) | Sydney Swans +63 |
| Ruck | 1268 (best 1334) | 1478 (best 1478) | Sydney Swans +211 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Fremantle |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Fremantle |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Sydney Swans predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 169 pts

**Record:** 0/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-09 13:00 UTC (latest tip update)