# Collingwood v North Melbourne — AFL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 89 – 85 North Melbourne

_Collingwood scrape past North Melbourne in a tight one._

Half time: 47 – 42 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 70% / North Melbourne 30% · Marvel Stadium · Fri, 10 July, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Lachie Schultz (2' 1st Tipped ⚡), Daniel McStay (8' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Tim Membrey (13' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Scott Pendlebury (27'), Patrick Lipinski (39' ×2), Sam Swadling (50'), Darcy Cameron (74'), Nick Daicos (72' Tipped ⚡), Jack Crisp (84') · North Melbourne: Paul Curtis (6' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Nick Larkey (20' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Cooper Trembath (26'), Zac Banch (34'), Charlie Spargo (82'), Riley Hardeman (88'), Tristan Xerri (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 70% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.6 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 9 July 2026, 08:41 pm · Last updated: 10 July 2026, 10:39 pm_

Collingwood 89–85 North Melbourne in AFL Round 18 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood by four, 89 to 85, and that scoreline undersells how nervy it was. This was never a game where one side pulled clear and cruised. Collingwood led by six at quarter time, five at half time, three at three-quarter time, and by the death it had crept back out to four. That's a margin that shrank for three straight quarters before finally holding. North Melbourne were never more than a good passage of footy away from hitting the front.

The composition of that scoreline says a lot. North Melbourne won the hard footy: 43 clearances to 38, 121 contested possessions to 115, 42 hit-outs to 32. On paper that's the sort of dominance that usually turns into a winning margin, not a four-point loss. They were also sharper with it forward of the ball, 16 marks inside 50 to Collingwood's 13, and they picked off more intercepts, 57 to 52.

So how did Collingwood hang on. Two numbers do the heavy lifting: 110 marks to 99, and 78 tackles to 56. Collingwood took the ball cleaner in general play and made North Melbourne earn every metre through pressure, a 22-tackle gap that's hard to ignore in a four-point game. Add 57 inside 50s to 55 and a small disposal edge, 384 to 372, and you've got a side that didn't win the stoppages but made the footy that came out of them count for more.

The pre-game shape of these two lists explains a fair bit too. Collingwood's forward rating of 1262 dwarfed North Melbourne's 1077, while North Melbourne actually rated ahead in the midfield, 1203 to 1196. That's more or less exactly how it played out: North controlled the midfield numbers, Collingwood made it pay where it mattered, inside their forward 50.

North Melbourne's form line coming in read badly, an average losing margin of 21 points and a scoring average of just 61.8. None of that showed up here. They put up 85, miles clear of that recent average, and pushed a side with a +10.8 average margin to the wire. Whatever went missing in their last five turned up on the night, just not quite enough of it.

Alphr's model backed Collingwood at 70 percent and got the winner right. The margin call was well off though, tipping North Melbourne to win by 14.6 when Collingwood actually got home by four, a miss of more than 18 points in the wrong direction. The total score prediction fared much better, 169 forecast against 174 actual, and the under on 175.5 landed too. Three from four isn't a bad return, but the margin miss is the one worth remembering: North Melbourne's clearance and hit-out dominance was real, it just wasn't enough to turn a stoppage edge into a scoreboard edge.

Four points, a lead that never fully settled, and a losing side that will wonder how a night of winning the contest didn't win the game.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 28 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 89 |
| North Melbourne | 22 | 20 | 22 | 21 | 85 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **384** | Disposals | 372 |
| 115 | Contested poss. | **121** |
| 38 | Clearances | **43** |
| **57** | Inside 50s | 55 |
| **110** | Marks | 99 |
| 13 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| **78** | Tackles | 56 |
| 32 | Hit-outs | **42** |
| 52 | Intercepts | **57** |
| 0.0% | Disposal eff. | 0.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 70% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.6 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 169 was close to the actual 174, within 5 points. The model went 3/4 on this match. North Melbourne covered the 17.5-point line. The under 175.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.38 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 70.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +17.5 @ $1.90 (edge +32.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 15 · Predicted total: 169

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Collingwood here: 70% to see off North Melbourne. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Collingwood sit 182 ELO points clear, 1544 to 1362.

Collingwood own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has North Melbourne by 14.6, with the two sides combining for about 169. Collingwood to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Collingwood | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 91.2pts | Avg Score | 61.8pts |
| 80.4pts | Avg Conceded | 82.8pts |
| 10.8pts | Avg Margin | -21.0pts |
| 386.6 | Disposals | 358.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 59.4 | Tackles | 56.4 |
| 34.0 | Clearances | 32.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | R12 L · R13 L · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W | 91.2 |
| North Melbourne | R13 L · R14 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 L | 61.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 142 · 129 | 142 · 139 |
| Goal Assists | 5/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.5/g | 13.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.3/g | 9.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 72.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 48 · 43 | 38 · 56 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 149/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.4/g | 24.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.6/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.2% | 73.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 8 | 12 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.2/g | 9.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.6% | 82% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.51) +35% · Key Forwards 5.15/g (lg 3.85) +34% · Defenders 1.45/g (lg 1.09) +33%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.51) +8% · Defenders 1.08/g (lg 1.09) -1% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.48) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 26 in 16g | 16/10g (2·1·3·1·2·1·2·1·0·3) | 7/12g | 30/25g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 36' 90' |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 20 in 16g | 14/10g (1·1·1·1·1·2·0·2·4·1) | 15/6g | 22/16g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 20 in 12g | 19/10g (4·1·1·2·0·3·0·3·2·3) | 21/13g | 181/103g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' 89' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 19 in 15g | 14/10g (0·1·0·2·3·1·2·1·3·1) | 4/4g | 13/13g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 16 in 15g | 12/10g (3·2·0·0·0·1·2·3·1·0) | 13/6g | 39/22g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Angus Anderson | FWD | 11 in 9g | 11/9g (1·0·2·1·1·1·2·1·2) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 89% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 3/14g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 7 in 9g | 10/10g (3·0·0·1·2·0·2·0·2·0) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 55% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 7 in 15g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·2·1) | 2/9g | 23/40g | 40% | — | 🏉 39' 72' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 12/36g | 28% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 10/12g | 17/37g | 16% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 9/14g | 19/39g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 8/22g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Sam Swadling | MID | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 3/27g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/6g | 9/16g | 14% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 15/20g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/14g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 6/16g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 10/36g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Liam Puncher | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 33 in 16g | 16/10g (4·1·0·1·2·1·4·1·1·1) | 16/8g | 141/66g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 68' 77' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 23 in 16g | 10/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·1·4·1·0) | 0/0g | 17/8g | 69% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 23 in 15g | 19/10g (1·3·2·1·3·1·4·0·2·2) | 40/22g | 71/47g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 22 in 13g | 18/10g (2·1·6·2·1·1·3·2·0·0) | 4/4g | 62/41g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 41' 63' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 9 in 16g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 36/86g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 8 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/7g | 101/70g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 5/7g | 10/15g | 40% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 13/37g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 7/25g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/15g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 26/63g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/3g | 15/36g | 28% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/29g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 36/48g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/29g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 11/106g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Zac Banch | FWD | 1 in 2g | 2/6g (0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 33% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/48g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 30/105g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Harvey | DEF | 0 in 4g | 9/10g (4·2·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Matt Whitlock | KF | no games | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Tom Blamires | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 32.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 28 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $2.00 | 64% | 33 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 22.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 19 ✓ |
| Jordan De Goey | 21.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 29 ✗ |
| Dan Houston | 20.5 | $1.78 | 57% | 20 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 18.5 | $1.95 | 40% | 13 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 19 ✗ |
| Edward Allan ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 17 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 16.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 20 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 31.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 28 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.98 | 62% | 14 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 27.5 | $1.97 | 57% | 26 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 25.5 | $1.77 | 59% | 22 ✓ |
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 20 ✓ |
| Cooper Harvey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 95% | 12 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 20 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 20.5 | $1.91 | 50% | 32 ✗ |
| Tom Blamires | 19.5 | $1.87 | 40% | 4 ✓ |
| Finn O'Sullivan | 19.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 19 ✓ |
| Luke McDonald | 16.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 15 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Collingwood 1544 · North Melbourne 1362 · ELO difference: 182 in favour of Collingwood

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Collingwood | North Melbourne | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1196 (best 1478) | 1203 (best 1553) | North Melbourne +7 |
| Forwards | 1262 (best 1455) | 1077 (best 1331) | Collingwood +185 |
| Defence | 1196 (best 1359) | 1153 (best 1465) | Collingwood +43 |
| Ruck | 1111 (best 1111) | 1106 (best 1106) | Collingwood +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Collingwood |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Collingwood |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Collingwood |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Collingwood |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Collingwood |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Collingwood predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 169 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-10 12:39 UTC (latest tip update)