# Carlton v Hawthorn — AFL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Carlton v Hawthorn
Sat, 11 July, 07:35 pm AEST · MCG · Round 18

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.52 (edge -11.1%) — model probability 54.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -11.5 @ $1.90 (edge +8.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 20 · Predicted total: 168

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Carlton | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 87.8pts | Avg Score | 97.8pts |
| 70.4pts | Avg Conceded | 89.6pts |
| 17.4pts | Avg Margin | 8.2pts |
| 406.8 | Disposals | 380.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 52.0 | Tackles | 64.2 |
| 36.4 | Clearances | 41.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | R12 W · R13 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W | 87.8 |
| Hawthorn | R12 W · R13 L · R15 W · R16 W · R17 L | 97.8 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-11 13:22 UTC (latest tip update)