# Carlton v Hawthorn — AFL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 39 – 103 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn demolish Carlton._

Half time: 13 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 45% / Hawthorn 55% · MCG · Sat, 11 July, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Flynn Riley (29'), Mitch McGovern (66' Tipped ⚡), Adam Cerra (76'), Ben Ainsworth (70' Tipped ⚡), Talor Byrne (86') · Hawthorn: Jack Ginnivan (4' ×2 1st), Jack Gunston (45' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Harry Morrison (55'), Dylan Moore (62' ×2), Josh Ward (80'), Mabior Chol (87' Tipped ⚡), Mitch Lewis (89' Tipped ⚡), Will Day (60'), Matt Hill (78' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 55% | Won |
| Carlton | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 19.5 predicted → 64 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 9 July 2026, 08:41 pm · Last updated: 11 July 2026, 11:22 pm_

Carlton 39–103 Hawthorn in AFL Round 18 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen points up at quarter time. Thirty-three at the main break. Sixty-seven at the last change. By the time Hawthorn was done at the MCG, the margin sat on 64, and Carlton had been buried under a scoreboard that never once went the other way.

Final score: Hawthorn 103, Carlton 39. That's not a contest that turned, it's one that just kept getting worse. Carlton actually led the quarter-by-quarter tallies in nothing. Twelve to fourteen after the first term was manageable. Then Hawthorn scored 19 to Carlton's 1 across the second quarter alone, turning a two-goal lead into a 20-point one, and from there it was about how much daylight Hawthorn wanted to put on the board.

The engine room tells you why. Hawthorn ran away with hit-outs, 53 to 22, and turned that ruck dominance into 46 clearances to Carlton's 34. Get first use of the ball at that rate and everything downstream gets easier: more disposals (408 to 351), more inside 50s (57 to 45), more clean entries once there, with 13 marks inside 50 against Carlton's 8. Carlton had 91 intercepts to Hawthorn's 96, close enough, but it barely mattered when Hawthorn kept feeding the forward line at will.

Carlton's one genuine统 stat to hang a hat on was tackle pressure, 98 to 78. They put bodies on the contest all day. Problem is, tackling a team that already has the ball moving forward doesn't stop the scoreboard, it just makes the loss look more honest. Marks were locked level at 57 apiece, so it wasn't a contested-mark horror show. It was a straightforward case of Hawthorn winning the ball more often, from more advantageous positions, and finishing better once they got it forward.

The form line coming in had Carlton the in-form side, five straight wins against Hawthorn's three from five, and Carlton's average margin over that stretch was a healthy 17.4 points to Hawthorn's 8.2. None of that showed up. Hawthorn's own form had them at 3-2 across their last five with a habit of leaking 89.6 points a game, yet here they held Carlton to 39 while piling on 103. Whatever the recent trend suggested, the head-to-head shape flipped hard on the day.

Pre-match, the ratings had Hawthorn narrowly on top, 1625 to 1524, and the model gave them a 55% chance, correctly picking the winner. The margin read was where it fell over badly: 19.5 points predicted, 64 delivered, which is Hawthorn covering that line several times over. The total was closer to the mark, 168 predicted against 142 actual, enough for the under call to land even with the model expecting a shootout that never really arrived.

Three from four on the four markets going in isn't a bad night's work for the model, but the margin miss is the one worth sitting with. Picking the right team is only half the job when the gap is this wide. Hawthorn's ruck and clearance dominance turned a tidy pre-match edge into a rout, and Carlton's tackle count, however committed, was never going to be the stat that mattered.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 12 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 39 |
| Hawthorn | 14 | 19 | 34 | 36 | 103 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Disposals | **408** |
| 153 | Contested poss. | **177** |
| 34 | Clearances | **46** |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **57** |
| 57 | Marks | 57 |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| **98** | Tackles | 78 |
| 22 | Hit-outs | **53** |
| 91 | Intercepts | **96** |
| **59.5%** | Disposal eff. | 58.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 19.5 but the actual margin was 64 points. The game's 142 points came in 26 points lower than the predicted 168. Hawthorn led 13–33 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 64. The model went 3/4 on this match. Hawthorn covered the 11.5-point line. The under 168.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.52 (edge -11.1%) — model probability 54.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -11.5 @ $1.90 (edge +8.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 20 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hawthorn are the call at 55%, but Carlton stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hawthorn sit 102 ELO points clear, 1625 to 1524. Form leans Carlton's way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Hawthorn.

On paper Carlton shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The model still sides with Hawthorn, which says ELO Difference and Scoring Form carry the most weight. The margin model has Hawthorn by 19.5, with the two sides combining for about 168. Lean Hawthorn, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Carlton | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 87.8pts | Avg Score | 97.8pts |
| 70.4pts | Avg Conceded | 89.6pts |
| 17.4pts | Avg Margin | 8.2pts |
| 406.8 | Disposals | 380.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 52.0 | Tackles | 64.2 |
| 36.4 | Clearances | 41.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | R12 W · R13 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W | 87.8 |
| Hawthorn | R12 W · R13 L · R15 W · R16 W · R17 L | 97.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 136 · 126 | 180 · 149 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 5.2/g |
| Disposals | 104/g | 116/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.1/g | 21.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.1/g | 9.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.1% | 67.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 44 · 60 | 28 · 51 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 142/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.6/g | 20.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.7% | 71.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 14 | 16 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 138/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 14.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.6% | 81.9% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.45/g (lg 2.48) -1% · Forwards 4.24/g (lg 4.45) -5% · Key Forwards 3.46/g (lg 3.85) -10%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.51) +33% · Defenders 1.29/g (lg 1.09) +18% · Forwards 4.54/g (lg 4.45) +2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 24 in 16g | 17/10g (4·3·0·1·2·2·2·1·0·2) | 1/3g | 11/25g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 24 in 16g | 12/10g (3·1·3·0·2·0·0·0·2·1) | 5/6g | 42/49g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 22 in 15g | 15/10g (1·0·3·2·1·0·3·1·3·1) | 10/8g | 106/54g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 16 in 16g | 9/10g (0·2·2·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 8/9g | 10/11g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 15 in 15g | 12/10g (0·0·3·0·2·3·1·2·1·0) | 11/10g | 33/28g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 11 in 14g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·3·2·1) | 0/2g | 9/15g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 10 in 16g | 9/10g (1·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 5/12g | 42/95g | 54% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·2·2) | 3/13g | 20/54g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 43% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 15/53g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/9g | 15/41g | 22% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Jack Ison | FWD | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/2g | 11/31g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/47g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 1/27g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/29g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Riley | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/23g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/37g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wade Derksen | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 36 in 10g | 36/10g (4·5·4·3·3·5·0·6·5·1) | 34/14g | 246/123g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' 68' 68' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 24 in 16g | 14/10g (1·2·1·2·1·3·0·1·2·1) | 7/5g | 67/38g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 89' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 22 in 11g | 20/10g (1·2·2·0·1·2·3·2·2·5) | 8/5g | 48/37g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 87' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 15 in 15g | 9/10g (1·1·0·2·1·0·0·4·0·0) | 4/6g | 58/59g | 60% | — | 🏉 62' 64' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 15 in 16g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·2) | 6/6g | 68/55g | 68% | — | 🏉 4' 17' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 14 in 16g | 11/10g (1·3·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·1) | 3/5g | 36/45g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 9 in 16g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·4·4·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 12/84g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/5g | 15/48g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 10/33g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 9/32g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Will Day | MID | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/6g | 5/29g | 38% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 8/23g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/4g | 3/36g | 10% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 11/51g | 20% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 15/72g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/27g | 4% | — | — |
| – | William McCabe | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 31/86g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 10/41g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Matt Hill | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 78' 83' |
| – | Noah Mraz | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Greeves | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 28.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 35 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps | 27.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 20 ✓ |
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 67% | 9 ✓ |
| Nic Newman | 22.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 27 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent | 20.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 16 ✓ |
| Billy Wilson ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 16 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra | 18.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 27 ✗ |
| Ben Ainsworth | 17.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 11 ✓ |
| Nick Haynes | 17.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 13 ✓ |
| Lachlan Cowan ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 13 ✓ |
| Will Hayward | 16.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 18 ✗ |
| Oliver Hollands | 16.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 7 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 26.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 18 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 23 ✗ |
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 12 ✓ |
| Will Day ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 70% | 24 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 20.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 19 ✓ |
| James Sicily | 19.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 15 ✓ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 31 ✗ |
| Cam Mackenzie | 19.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 21 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 25 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 17.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 20 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Carlton 1524 · Hawthorn 1625 · ELO difference: 102 in favour of Hawthorn

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Carlton | Hawthorn | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1247 (best 1381) | 1185 (best 1439) | Carlton +62 |
| Forwards | 1135 (best 1390) | 1112 (best 1436) | Carlton +23 |
| Defence | 1303 (best 1430) | 1293 (best 1521) | Carlton +10 |
| Ruck | 1228 (best 1228) | 1202 (best 1202) | Carlton +26 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Hawthorn |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Carlton |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Carlton |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Carlton |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | — |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Hawthorn |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Hawthorn predicted to win by 19 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-11 13:22 UTC (latest tip update)