# Brisbane Lions v Essendon — AFL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Brisbane Lions v Essendon
Sun, 12 July, 04:40 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 18

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.02 (edge -17.4%) — model probability 80.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +62.5 @ $1.90 (edge +37.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 25 · Predicted total: 168

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 109.6pts | Avg Score | 57.4pts |
| 88.4pts | Avg Conceded | 89.6pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Margin | -32.2pts |
| 350.8 | Disposals | 371.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 50.0 | Tackles | 45.0 |
| 40.8 | Clearances | 32.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | R12 L · R13 W · R14 W · R16 W · R17 W | 109.6 |
| Essendon | R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R16 L · R17 L | 57.4 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-12 09:34 UTC (latest tip update)