# Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 128 – 49 Gold Coast SUNS

_Adelaide Crows put Gold Coast SUNS to the sword._

Half time: 50 – 23 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 93% / Gold Coast SUNS 7% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 11 July, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Jordan Dawson (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Josh Rachele (11' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben Keays (45' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jake Soligo (46'), Darcy Fogarty (71' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Lachlan McAndrew (77'), Alex Neal-Bullen (88'), Taylor Walker (92' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Luke Nankervis (95') · Gold Coast SUNS: Bailey Humphrey (30'), Jed Walter (50' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Leo Lombard (66'), Christian Petracca (88')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 93% | Won |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 7% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 26.0 predicted → 79 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 9 July 2026, 08:41 pm · Last updated: 11 July 2026, 11:08 pm_

Adelaide Crows 128–49 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 18 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide wanted the footy in their hands as often as possible. Gold Coast wanted it forward as fast as possible. Only one of those plans survived contact, and the scoreboard at Adelaide Oval ended up reading 128–49.

The Crows won the disposal count 384 to 337, which on its own doesn't win you a game by 79 points. What it did was give Adelaide first use, and they made the most of it: 53 clearances to 35, 59 inside 50s to 38. Gold Coast were still trying to play direct footy off turnover ball, and Adelaide's 90 tackles to 55 made sure that ball never sat still long enough to be dangerous.

The one area Gold Coast actually won was hit-outs, 61 to 44, and their ruck rating of 1415 to Adelaide's 1289 said that edge should have been there. Didn't matter. Winning the tap means nothing if you can't win the clearance that follows, and Adelaide took that battle 53 to 35 regardless of who was tapping it down.

The scoring breaks tell the real story of how one-sided the afternoon became. Adelaide led 20–15 at quarter time, a start that looked competitive enough. By half time it was 50–23, and by three-quarter time 90–30. That's a 40-point third term against a 5-point opening one, the kind of acceleration that suggests a game getting away from a team rather than a team losing it in one bad patch.

Inside forward 50 is where the gap really showed. Adelaide had 13 marks inside 50 to Gold Coast's 5, meaning the Crows were finding targets in space while the Suns were left hoping for scraps. Marks overall were close, 76 to 73, so this wasn't about who held the ball in general play. It was about who held it where it counted.

Adelaide's defence rating of 1330 against Gold Coast's forward rating of 1046 was one of the widest gaps on the sheet pre-match, and it played out that way. Gold Coast's form coming in was already grim, five straight losses and an average margin of minus 29.8, and nothing in this performance suggested a side about to break that run. Adelaide, by contrast, arrived on four wins from five and an average margin of plus 14.8. They just multiplied it.

Alphr's model had Adelaide at 93 percent to win, which was never really in doubt once the ball started moving Adelaide's way. The margin read, though, was well off: 26 points predicted, 79 delivered. The total was closer to the mark, with the over on 152.5 landing comfortably against a combined 177. Three from four calls on this one, and the miss was a big one.

Gold Coast had the more fancied midfield on paper, 1266 to 1199, but paper doesn't lay tackles or crash packs. Adelaide's contested possession count, 147 to 120, is the number that explains why the Suns' midfield rating never showed up on the ground. You can be rated higher and still get out-worked.

Ambition without control just hands the other side the footy back. Adelaide had both. Gold Coast, for four quarters, had neither.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 20 | 30 | 40 | 38 | 128 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 15 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 49 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **384** | Disposals | 337 |
| **147** | Contested poss. | 120 |
| **53** | Clearances | 35 |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 38 |
| **76** | Marks | 73 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| **90** | Tackles | 55 |
| 44 | Hit-outs | **61** |
| **65** | Intercepts | 60 |
| **74.0%** | Disposal eff. | 73.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 93% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 26.0 but the actual margin was 79 points. Adelaide Crows led 50–23 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 79. The model went 3/4 on this match. Adelaide Crows covered the 17.5-point line. The over 152.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.35 (edge +18.6%) — model probability 92.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -17.5 @ $1.90 (edge +8.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 152.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 26 · Predicted total: 169

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Adelaide Crows here: 93% to see off Gold Coast SUNS. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Adelaide Crows sit 199 ELO points clear, 1643 to 1444. Form leans Adelaide Crows' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Gold Coast SUNS.

Adelaide Crows own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Adelaide Crows by 26.0, with the two sides combining for about 169. Adelaide Crows to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 89.0pts | Avg Score | 71.8pts |
| 74.2pts | Avg Conceded | 101.6pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Margin | -29.8pts |
| 385.4 | Disposals | 363.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 74.8 | Tackles | 50.2 |
| 32.6 | Clearances | 32.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | R13 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 L · R17 W | 89.0 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | R13 L · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L · R17 L | 71.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Gold Coast SUNS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R19 | Adelaide Crows | 107 – 46 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2025 | R4 | Gold Coast SUNS | 91 – 90 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R1 | Gold Coast SUNS | 60 – 54 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2023 | R21 | Adelaide Crows | 89 – 61 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2023 | R12 | Gold Coast SUNS | 112 – 87 | Adelaide Crows |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 142 · 130 | 163 · 143 |
| Goal Assists | 5.9/g | 5.8/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.9/g | 23.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.4/g | 9.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.1% | 68% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 61 · 38 | 31 · 47 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 104/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.5/g | 17.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.8% | 70.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 14 | 19 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 145/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.4/g | 13.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.7% | 83.3% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.13/g (lg 1.09) +4% · Forwards 4.61/g (lg 4.45) +4% · Midfielders 2.48/g (lg 2.48) +0%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.14/g (lg 1.09) +5% · Forwards 4.33/g (lg 4.45) -3% · Midfielders 2.25/g (lg 2.48) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 27 in 16g | 17/10g (0·2·2·3·1·0·4·3·1·1) | 5/4g | 74/49g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 20' 36' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 21 in 16g | 15/10g (1·3·1·2·0·2·1·1·1·3) | 9/9g | 79/85g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' 83' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 19 in 10g | 19/10g (2·2·0·2·1·0·1·2·5·4) | 12/7g | 127/78g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' 86' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 19 in 13g | 13/10g (1·1·3·1·1·1·0·3·1·1) | 8/5g | 74/53g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 18 in 13g | 15/10g (1·2·1·1·1·3·3·2·0·1) | 5/10g | 40/63g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 14 in 11g | 14/10g (3·1·1·5·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 49/16g | 302/138g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 92' 67' 79' 81' 89' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 12 in 13g | 10/10g (2·1·2·1·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/4g | 74/44g | 84% | — | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 10 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 9/9g | 21/36g | 50% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 10 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 6/25g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/6g | 25/57g | 42% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 10/25g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Toby Murray | RUC | 7 in 9g | 7/9g (0·0·2·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 4/3g | 56% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 11/24g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 21% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 8/25g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/24g | 6% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 9/52g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/11g | 19/77g | 12% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/15g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/40g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/33g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/48g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 18/146g | 2% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 46 in 16g | 22/10g (2·2·4·1·1·4·3·1·1·3) | 15/8g | 11/7g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 20 in 11g | 18/10g (2·2·0·3·3·2·1·2·2·1) | 4/2g | 1/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' 80' 95' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 19 in 14g | 9/10g (0·2·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 13/13g | 15/18g | 70% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 12 in 13g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·3) | 4/5g | 1/3g | 50% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (0·0·4·3·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 2/2g | 53% | — | — |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 10 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 43% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 7 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/11g | 2/9g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 7 in 13g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 0/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/7g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 1/5g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Patterson | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 5/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Beau Addinsall | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jai Murray | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | 25.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 29 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera | 24.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 22 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $2.00 | 42% | 14 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 31 ✗ |
| Sam Berry | 21.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell | 20.5 | $1.89 | 51% | 21 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.83 | 72% | 24 ✗ |
| Brayden Cook | 16.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 19 ✗ |
| Josh Rachele ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 17 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo | 16.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 17 ✗ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 28.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 25 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 66% | 27 ✗ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 20 ✓ |
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.93 | 67% | 19 ✓ |
| John Noble | 24.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Bodhi Uwland ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 21 ✓ |
| Zeke Uwland ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 21 ✗ |
| Mac Andrew | 17.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 15 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 21 ✗ |
| Wil Powell ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 18 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Adelaide Crows 1643 · Gold Coast SUNS 1444 · ELO difference: 199 in favour of Adelaide Crows

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Adelaide Crows | Gold Coast SUNS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1199 (best 1453) | 1266 (best 1378) | Gold Coast SUNS +67 |
| Forwards | 1148 (best 1333) | 1046 (best 1389) | Adelaide Crows +102 |
| Defence | 1330 (best 1479) | 1236 (best 1550) | Adelaide Crows +94 |
| Ruck | 1289 (best 1289) | 1415 (best 1415) | Gold Coast SUNS +126 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Adelaide Crows |

**Model Confidence: 93%** — Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 26 points · Predicted total: 169 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-11 13:08 UTC (latest tip update)