# West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 74 – 99 Adelaide Crows

_Adelaide Crows pick apart West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 29 – 59 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 12% / Adelaide Crows 88% · Optus Stadium · Fri, 03 July, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Jack Williams (15'), Jake Waterman (37' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jobe Shanahan (52' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Willem Duursma (58'), Brandon Starcevich (71'), Final quarter (32m 9s)Bo Allan (61'), Tom Cole (75') · Adelaide Crows: Toby Murray (3' 1st), Darcy Fogarty (7' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Daniel Curtin (26'), Alex Neal-Bullen (33'), Jordan Dawson (39' Tipped ⚡), Jake Soligo (64'), Josh Rachele (76' Tipped ⚡), Izak Rankine (82' Tipped ⚡), Ben Keays (84' ×3 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 88% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 19.7 predicted → 25 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 July 2026, 10:30 pm · Last updated: 3 July 2026, 11:22 pm_

West Coast Eagles 74–99 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 17 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows led 59-29 at the main break, and by three-quarter time that gap hadn't moved much, 86-56. On paper this had the look of a rout that stopped bothering to close it out. It wasn't quite that tidy.

West Coast actually won the second half, 45 points to 40, and took the final quarter outright, 18 to 13. Doesn't change the result. Adelaide got out to a 38-9 lead in the first term and never handed back enough of it to matter, running out winners 99-74 at Optus Stadium. But it's worth noting the Eagles didn't just fold. They just started too far behind to do anything about it.

The number that explains most of this game is 49. That's Adelaide's hit-out count, against West Coast's 27. When you dominate a ruck contest by almost two to one, first use of the footy follows, and it did: Adelaide finished with 369 disposals to 331, and used it at 75.9% efficiency to West Coast's 67.1%. Adelaide also went inside 50 twelve more times, 56 to 44, and racked up 103 marks to West Coast's 84. Intercepts were dead level at 73 apiece, so this wasn't really won on turnovers. It was won on repeat entries and clean hands.

The pre-match positional read had this coming. Adelaide's ruck rating of 1261 against West Coast's 1000 was always going to show up at the hit-out count, and it did, by 22. The defence gap, 1305 to 1076, meant West Coast's forward entries were always going to be worth less than Adelaide's, and the marks-inside-50 split, 8 to 6, bears that out. Forwards, 1121 to 957, told the same story before a ball was bounced.

Form lined up with it too.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 9 | 20 | 27 | 18 | 74 |
| Adelaide Crows | 38 | 21 | 27 | 13 | 99 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 331 | Disposals | **369** |
| 140 | Contested poss. | **145** |
| 37 | Clearances | **39** |
| 44 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| 84 | Marks | **103** |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **8** |
| 71 | Tackles | **73** |
| 27 | Hit-outs | **49** |
| 73 | Intercepts | 73 |
| 67.1% | Disposal eff. | **75.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 88% probability. The predicted margin of 19.7 was reasonable against the actual 25-point result. Total score prediction of 168 was close to the actual 173, within 5 points. The model went 3/4 on this match. West Coast Eagles covered the 31.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.17 (edge +2.1%) — model probability 87.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +31.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.85 (edge +0.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 20 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Adelaide Crows here: 88% to see off West Coast Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Adelaide Crows sit 468 ELO points clear, 1636 to 1169. Form leans Adelaide Crows' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for West Coast Eagles.

Adelaide Crows own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Adelaide Crows by 19.7, with the two sides combining for about 168. Adelaide Crows to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 75.0pts | Avg Score | 82.4pts |
| 83.0pts | Avg Conceded | 74.4pts |
| -8.0pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 332.8 | Disposals | 396.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 53.8 | Tackles | 76.8 |
| 33.0 | Clearances | 36.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | R11 L · R12 W · R13 L · R14 L · R16 L | 75.0 |
| Adelaide Crows | R11 L · R13 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 L | 82.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Adelaide Crows lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R22 | West Coast Eagles | 78 – 87 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2025 | R11 | Adelaide Crows | 128 – 62 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2024 | R11 | Adelaide Crows | 137 – 38 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2023 | R24 | West Coast Eagles | 78 – 123 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2023 | R13 | Adelaide Crows | 174 – 52 | West Coast Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 80 · 150 | 131 · 122 |
| Goal Assists | 2.5/g | 5.9/g |
| Disposals | 73/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.6/g | 20.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.2/g | 8.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.5% | 67.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 50 · 50 | 57 · 36 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 130/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.1/g | 21.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.1/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.1% | 69.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 13 · 21 | 7 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 129/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.2/g | 9.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81% | 81.9% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.14/g (lg 1.1) +4% · Forwards 4.38/g (lg 4.45) -2% · Midfielders 2.25/g (lg 2.49) -10%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Midfielders 3.44/g (lg 2.49) +38% · Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.51) +35% · Forwards 5.33/g (lg 4.45) +20%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 31 in 15g | 21/10g (1·1·3·3·3·1·3·3·3·0) | 9/9g | 111/67g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' 80' 65' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 18 in 15g | 11/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·1·1·3·1) | 3/1g | 18/13g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' 86' 88' |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 12 in 13g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·0·3·0·1·0·0) | 7/14g | 27/65g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 12 in 15g | 9/10g (0·1·2·1·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/2g | 21/29g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 10 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 7/7g | 54% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·2) | 2/8g | 22/48g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/8g | 11/29g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 5 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 1/7g | 3/48g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/9g | 4/70g | 14% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 4/13g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 6/11g | 5/21g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/11g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Milan Murdock | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 24/70g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/7g | 4% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 0 in 4g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 19/23g | 58% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 4/89g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Herbert | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Francou | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 26 in 15g | 17/10g (1·0·2·2·3·1·0·4·3·1) | 11/4g | 4/3g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 18 in 15g | 14/10g (2·1·3·1·2·0·2·1·1·1) | 9/12g | 3/6g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 84' 73' 85' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 17 in 12g | 16/10g (2·1·2·1·1·1·3·3·2·0) | 7/10g | 3/8g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 15 in 9g | 16/10g (1·2·2·0·2·1·0·1·2·5) | 23/11g | 12/7g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' 9' 17' 34' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (0·3·1·1·5·1·0·2·1·0) | 43/14g | 15/6g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 11 in 12g | 9/10g (0·2·1·2·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 12/7g | 8/7g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 10 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·2) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 11/15g | 9/14g | 48% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/7g | 4/5g | 38% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Toby Murray | RUC | 6 in 8g | 6/8g (0·0·2·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/5g | 2/6g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 26% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Billy Dowling | MID | no games | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Hall-Kahan | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/21g | 3/7g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 19 ✓ |
| Harley Reid ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 23 ✓ |
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 19 ✓ |
| Jack Graham ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 12 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 18.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 17 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 18.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 24 ✗ |
| Willem Duursma | 17.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 12 ✓ |
| Elliot Yeo | 16.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 7 ✓ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 24.5 | $1.88 | 46% | 25 ✗ |
| Jordan Dawson | 24.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 27 ✗ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 67% | 20 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 21.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 20 ✓ |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.94 | 86% | 18 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 27 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.89 | 64% | 21 ✗ |
| Brayden Cook | 17.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 11 ✓ |
| Mark Keane | 17.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 18 ✗ |
| Josh Rachele ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 17 ✗ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 16.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 13 ✓ |
| Luke Nankervis ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 16 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — West Coast Eagles 1169 · Adelaide Crows 1636 · ELO difference: 467 in favour of Adelaide Crows

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | West Coast Eagles | Adelaide Crows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1134 (best 1231) | 1166 (best 1397) | Adelaide Crows +32 |
| Forwards | 957 (best 1306) | 1121 (best 1288) | Adelaide Crows +164 |
| Defence | 1076 (best 1346) | 1305 (best 1407) | Adelaide Crows +230 |
| Ruck | 1000 (best 1000) | 1261 (best 1261) | Adelaide Crows +261 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 88%** — Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 20 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-03 13:22 UTC (latest tip update)