# Richmond v Carlton — AFL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Richmond v Carlton
Sat, 04 July, 07:35 pm AEST · MCG · Round 17

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.13 (edge +5.9%) — model probability 94.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -35.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 66 · Predicted total: 169

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Richmond | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 66.0pts | Avg Score | 91.4pts |
| 104.0pts | Avg Conceded | 67.6pts |
| -38.0pts | Avg Margin | 23.8pts |
| 330.4 | Disposals | 397.6 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 45.2 | Tackles | 51.0 |
| 29.4 | Clearances | 34.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | R11 W · R12 L · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L | 66.0 |
| Carlton | R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R15 W · R16 W | 91.4 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-04 12:23 UTC (latest tip update)