# Richmond v Carlton — AFL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 72 – 74 Carlton

_Carlton hold off a gallant Richmond._

Half time: 41 – 49 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 6% / Carlton 94% · MCG · Sat, 04 July, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Seth Campbell (13' ×2), Mykelti Lefau (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Rhyan Mansell (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Noah Balta (25' ×2), Jasper Alger (30'), Taj Hotton (73') · Carlton: Brodie Kemp (8' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Francis Evans (15'), Patrick Cripps (33'), Mitch McGovern (35' Tipped ⚡), Adam Cerra (51'), Ben Ainsworth (55' Tipped ⚡), George Hewett (75' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 94% | Won |
| Richmond | 6% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 66.1 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 July 2026, 10:30 pm · Last updated: 4 July 2026, 10:23 pm_

Richmond 72–74 Carlton in AFL Round 17 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton edged Richmond 74–72 at the MCG, managing scoreboard pressure effectively. Richmond started strong, leading 33–15 at quarter-time, but Carlton turned it around by half-time, taking a 49–41 lead. Richmond was left chasing for the rest of the match, despite a late push in the final term.

By three-quarter time, Carlton had extended their lead to 64–50. This was built on efficient midfield play and sharp forward execution. Richmond won the clearances 43 to 31, but couldn't convert this into a decisive advantage. Carlton's midfield strength, rated at 1301 compared to Richmond's 1133, was crucial in maintaining their lead.

Carlton's possession game was key. They finished with 372 disposals to Richmond's 318. Their forwards capitalised on this, taking 17 marks inside 50 compared to Richmond's eight. This efficiency in the forward line was a major factor, as Richmond's defence, rated 1266 to Carlton's 1407, struggled to contain the threat.

Carlton came into the match on a five-game winning streak, contrasting with Richmond's single win in their last five. Richmond's recent defensive struggles, conceding an average of 104 points, were evident. Despite their efforts, they couldn't overcome Carlton's form.

In the midfield, Richmond edged the tackles 61 to 57, but Carlton's ability to move the ball forward was decisive. Richmond's higher disposal efficiency of 72.3% compared to Carlton's 69.9% didn't translate into a win, as Carlton's forward play made the difference.

Richmond's recent form was inconsistent, and despite a commendable effort in the final term, they couldn't overturn the lead Carlton had built. Closing the gap to two points was impressive, but ultimately insufficient.

Our AI model predicted a Carlton win, but by a much larger margin of 66 points. The actual two-point margin highlighted Richmond's resilience. The total score of 146 fell short of the predicted 169, showing the unpredictability of the game.

In the end, Carlton held their nerve under Richmond's late pressure. Their ability to adapt and make crucial plays secured the win, extending their winning streak and underscoring their current dominance in the AFL.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 33 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 72 |
| Carlton | 15 | 34 | 15 | 10 | 74 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 318 | Disposals | **372** |
| 123 | Contested poss. | **137** |
| **43** | Clearances | 31 |
| 48 | Inside 50s | **49** |
| 68 | Marks | **101** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **17** |
| **61** | Tackles | 57 |
| 38 | Hit-outs | **39** |
| 63 | Intercepts | **69** |
| **72.3%** | Disposal eff. | 69.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 66.1 but the actual margin was 2 points. The game's 146 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 169. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.13 (edge +5.9%) — model probability 94.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -35.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 66 · Predicted total: 169

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Carlton here: 94% to see off Richmond. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Carlton sit 405 ELO points clear, 1519 to 1114. Form leans Carlton's way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Richmond.

Carlton own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Carlton by 66.1, with the two sides combining for about 169. Carlton to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Richmond | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 66.0pts | Avg Score | 91.4pts |
| 104.0pts | Avg Conceded | 67.6pts |
| -38.0pts | Avg Margin | 23.8pts |
| 330.4 | Disposals | 397.6 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 45.2 | Tackles | 51.0 |
| 29.4 | Clearances | 34.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | R11 W · R12 L · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L | 66.0 |
| Carlton | R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R15 W · R16 W | 91.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 101 · 153 | 130 · 118 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 83/g | 103/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.8/g | 18.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.5/g | 8.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.9% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 24 · 70 | 41 · 60 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 143/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.1/g | 20.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.9% | 71% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 16 · 8 | 6 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 138/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.6/g | 12.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.3% | 77.9% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.51) +35% · Defenders 1.27/g (lg 1.09) +17% · Forwards 4.52/g (lg 4.46) +1%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Rucks 0.67/g (lg 0.51) +31% · Key Forwards 4.95/g (lg 3.85) +29% · Midfielders 3.11/g (lg 2.49) +25%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 13 in 15g | 8/10g (1·1·2·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 15/22g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 12 in 13g | 11/10g (4·0·2·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 13/14g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.47 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 88' |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 12 in 15g | 8/10g (2·2·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 24/32g | 48% | — | 🏉 13' 90' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 11 in 7g | 18/10g (1·3·3·2·0·1·1·3·2·2) | 47/17g | 162/74g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jasper Alger | FWD | 10 in 6g | 12/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·3·4·1·2) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 50% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 10 in 13g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·4) | 4/12g | 35/57g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 9 in 14g | 9/10g (1·0·3·1·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 10/8g | 30/64g | 34% | — | 🏉 25' 56' |
| – | Sam Cumming | MID | 6 in 9g | 6/9g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 5 in 2g | 16/10g (3·0·3·0·1·2·1·1·2·3) | 4/5g | 33/45g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 77' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 8/57g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 14/36g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 20/110g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 13% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/20g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 17/147g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/31g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/48g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kye Annand | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/101g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | 0 in 2g | 3/9g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 22% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/14g | 26/96g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/29g | 16% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 23 in 15g | 14/10g (3·3·1·3·0·2·0·0·0·2) | 7/11g | 41/48g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 22 in 15g | 17/10g (2·4·3·0·1·2·2·2·1·0) | 2/4g | 9/24g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 43' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 21 in 14g | 15/10g (1·1·0·3·2·1·0·3·1·3) | 18/10g | 105/53g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 15 in 15g | 10/10g (2·0·2·2·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 5/10g | 9/10g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 15 in 14g | 13/10g (1·0·0·3·0·2·3·1·2·1) | 8/9g | 33/27g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 78% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 10 in 13g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·3·2) | 6/5g | 8/14g | 52% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 9 in 15g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 6/17g | 41/94g | 50% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·3) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 50% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·2) | 7/14g | 18/53g | 40% | — | 🏉 75' 79' |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 6 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/37g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 15/52g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ison | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 2/3g | 11/30g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 14/40g | 18% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/46g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/26g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/28g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/22g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/26g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/36g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wade Derksen | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 25 ✓ |
| Jack Ross ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 10 ✓ |
| Jayden Short | 23.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 16 ✓ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 67% | 16 ✓ |
| James Trezise ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 10 ✓ |
| Patrick Retschko | 17.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 15 ✓ |
| Sam Cumming | 17.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 15 ✓ |
| Tom Brown ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 12 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 16.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 12 ✓ |
| Seth Campbell ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.83 | 67% | 17 ✗ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 30.5 | $1.81 | 57% | 22 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 29.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 25 ✓ |
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 26 ✓ |
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.88 | 69% | 29 ✗ |
| Nic Newman | 23.5 | $1.94 | 54% | 22 ✓ |
| Billy Wilson ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 17 ✓ |
| Oliver Florent | 21.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra | 19.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 21 ✗ |
| Ben Ainsworth | 19.5 | $2.00 | 59% | 16 ✓ |
| Nick Haynes | 18.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 17 ✓ |
| Lachlan Cowan ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 14 ✓ |
| Will Hayward | 17.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 15 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Richmond 1114 · Carlton 1519 · ELO difference: 405 in favour of Carlton

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Richmond | Carlton | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1133 (best 1341) | 1301 (best 1349) | Carlton +168 |
| Forwards | 1139 (best 1339) | 1239 (best 1475) | Carlton +100 |
| Defence | 1266 (best 1353) | 1407 (best 1503) | Carlton +141 |
| Ruck | 1121 (best 1186) | 1064 (best 1064) | Richmond +58 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Carlton |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Carlton |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Carlton |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Carlton |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Carlton |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Carlton |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 94%** — Carlton predicted to win by 66 points · Predicted total: 169 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-04 12:23 UTC (latest tip update)