# Port Adelaide v North Melbourne — AFL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 73 – 52 North Melbourne

_Port Adelaide see off North Melbourne._

Half time: 36 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 81% / North Melbourne 19% · Adelaide Oval · Sun, 05 July, 04:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Whitlock (37' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jordon Sweet (55'), Jason Horne-Francis (86' Tipped ⚡), Corey Durdin (71' Tipped ⚡), Jackson Mead (84') · North Melbourne: Nick Larkey (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jy Simpkin (53'), Jack Darling (61' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harry Sheezel (64'), Luke Davies-Uniacke (77'), Colby McKercher (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 81% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.7 predicted → 21 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 July 2026, 10:30 pm · Last updated: 5 July 2026, 07:42 pm_

Port Adelaide 73–52 North Melbourne in AFL Round 17 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Port Adelaide led North Melbourne 36 to 17 at half time at Adelaide Oval, a gap that looked settled. It didn't stay that way.

North Melbourne came out and took the third quarter apart from Port's grip on it. By the three-quarter time siren the scores were locked level at 51 to 51. Port's 19-point buffer from half time had been erased entirely in a single term, North doing to Port in the third quarter roughly what Port had done to them in the second.

Port Adelaide answered in the last quarter. The home side pulled away again and finished the game 73 to 52, a 21-point win built almost entirely off the back of that final term. So the shape of the afternoon was tied, tied, then decided: level scores at quarter time, a big Port surge to half time, North's reply to level it at three-quarter time, and then Port shutting the door.

The disposal numbers don't match the scoreboard story. North Melbourne had more of the ball, 380 disposals to 295, and used it more cleanly too, 75.3% efficiency against Port's 73.2%. North also won the contested possession count, 132 to 123. None of it translated into scoreboard pressure when it mattered.

Where Port won was territory.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 9 | 27 | 15 | 22 | 73 |
| North Melbourne | 9 | 8 | 34 | 1 | 52 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 295 | Disposals | **380** |
| 123 | Contested poss. | **132** |
| **35** | Clearances | 29 |
| **57** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| 93 | Marks | **94** |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| **54** | Tackles | 49 |
| **35** | Hit-outs | 23 |
| 71 | Intercepts | **72** |
| 73.2% | Disposal eff. | **75.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 81% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.7 but the actual margin was 21 points. The game's 125 points came in 42 points lower than the predicted 167. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 172.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.40 (edge +9.3%) — model probability 80.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +16.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 9 · Predicted total: 167

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Port Adelaide here: 81% to see off North Melbourne. Form leans North Melbourne's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Port Adelaide.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Port Adelaide by 8.7, with the two sides combining for about 167. Port Adelaide to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Port Adelaide | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 74.8pts | Avg Score | 73.6pts |
| 81.0pts | Avg Conceded | 89.2pts |
| -6.2pts | Avg Margin | -15.6pts |
| 336.2 | Disposals | 332.6 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 52.6 | Tackles | 54.6 |
| 37.0 | Clearances | 32.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | R11 L · R13 W · R14 L · R15 L · R16 W | 74.8 |
| North Melbourne | R11 W · R13 L · R14 W · R15 W · R16 W | 73.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 109 · 127 | 138 · 131 |
| Goal Assists | 4.1/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.4/g | 13.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.6/g | 9.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.1% | 72.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 49 · 37 | 35 · 54 |
| Goal Assists | 4.1/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 147/g | 148/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.9/g | 24.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.6/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.5% | 74% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 12 | 12 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 101/g | 117/g |
| Inside 50s | 7.9/g | 9.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.2% | 81.6% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Defenders 1.48/g (lg 1.09) +36% · Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.51) +35% · Key Forwards 5.13/g (lg 3.85) +33%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.09) +10% · Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.51) +4% · Key Forwards 3.91/g (lg 3.85) +2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 34 in 15g | 22/10g (2·4·3·4·1·1·1·2·1·3) | 10/4g | 122/60g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 44' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 23 in 15g | 14/10g (1·2·2·1·1·1·1·2·0·3) | 7/6g | 25/15g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 20 in 15g | 12/10g (2·1·0·0·0·3·3·2·0·1) | 3/4g | 49/47g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 86' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 15 in 15g | 8/10g (2·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 2/1g | 8/11g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' 42' 76' |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 12 in 15g | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·2·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 10/16g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 8 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 15/22g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 8/30g | 32% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 6 in 6g | 10/10g (0·2·0·2·3·1·2·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 10/14g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $2.05 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 12/38g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/9g | 33/85g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 47/129g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 17/62g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/50g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/14g | 55/143g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 11/82g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/21g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Zadow | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Bamert | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/74g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/27g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/38g | 10% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 32 in 15g | 17/10g (2·4·1·0·1·2·1·4·1·1) | 19/9g | 20/8g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 23 in 15g | 13/10g (3·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·4·1) | 3/1g | 1/1g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 21 in 14g | 18/10g (1·1·3·2·1·3·1·4·0·2) | 27/17g | 27/19g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' 85' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 8 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 13/11g | 7/9g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 3/9g | 44% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 2/5g | 6/11g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 2/3g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 38% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 21% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 2/3g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/3g | 32% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/9g | 3/8g | 28% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 7/16g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/16g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Harvey | DEF | 0 in 3g | 10/10g (1·4·2·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Josh Goater | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Blamires | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Dawson | RUC | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | 27.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 26 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 22.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 24 ✗ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 24 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines | 19.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 22 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 17.5 | $1.82 | 49% | 13 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 14 ✓ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 30.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 40 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 25.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 19 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 24.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 27 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 23.5 | $2.00 | 57% | 31 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 19.5 | $1.82 | 45% | 13 ✓ |
| Colby McKercher | 19.5 | $1.93 | 51% | 28 ✗ |
| Dylan Stephens | 19.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 18 ✓ |
| Finn O'Sullivan | 18.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 16 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Port Adelaide 1402 · North Melbourne 1400 · ELO difference: 2 in favour of Port Adelaide

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Port Adelaide | North Melbourne | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1276 (best 1512) | 1264 (best 1569) | Port Adelaide +12 |
| Forwards | 1212 (best 1456) | 1186 (best 1390) | Port Adelaide +26 |
| Defence | 1169 (best 1332) | 1208 (best 1582) | North Melbourne +38 |
| Ruck | 1063 (best 1188) | 1234 (best 1312) | North Melbourne +171 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | North Melbourne |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | North Melbourne |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Port Adelaide |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Port Adelaide predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 167 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-05 09:42 UTC (latest tip update)