# Hawthorn v Melbourne — AFL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sat, 04 July, 01:15 pm AEST · UTAS Stadium · Round 17

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.42 (edge +17.8%) — model probability 88.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 34 · Predicted total: 169

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hawthorn | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 94.8pts | Avg Score | 80.0pts |
| 77.8pts | Avg Conceded | 83.2pts |
| 17.0pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 384.8 | Disposals | 347.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 59.6 | Tackles | 54.0 |
| 37.2 | Clearances | 34.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | R11 W · R12 W · R13 L · R15 W · R16 W | 94.8 |
| Melbourne | R11 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 W · R15 L | 80.0 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-04 06:17 UTC (latest tip update)