# GWS GIANTS v Fremantle — AFL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 109 – 88 Fremantle

_GWS GIANTS tower over Fremantle._

Half time: 58 – 45 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 10% / Fremantle 90% · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Sat, 04 July, 01:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Stephen Coniglio (8' 1st), Jake Stringer (12' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Toby Greene (21' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Callum Brown (30'), Aaron Cadman (53' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harry Rowston (79'), Conor Stone (85') · Fremantle: Luke Jackson (10' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (16' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Neil Erasmus (18'), Patrick Voss (26' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Shai Bolton (43'), Nathan ODriscoll (45'), Murphy Reid (82'), Isaiah Dudley (91')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 90% | Lost |
| GWS GIANTS | 10% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 35.9 predicted → 21 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Fremantle Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 17, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 July 2026, 10:30 pm · Last updated: 4 July 2026, 05:23 pm_

GWS GIANTS 109–88 Fremantle in AFL Round 17 at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-six hit-outs to twenty-four. Fremantle won that battle almost two to one and it didn't matter a bit, because GWS Giants still walked away with 42 clearances to 28 and beat them 109–88 at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. Winning the tap doesn't count for much if you can't win the footy off it, and Fremantle spent the whole day finding that out.

The ladder-climbing form line said this shouldn't happen. Fremantle arrived on a five-game winning streak, Giants had dropped three straight, and the model had Fremantle favourites by 35.9 with a 90% win probability attached. Every one of the four pre-match picks went the other way. Instead Giants led 33–31 at the first change, pushed it to 58–45 by half time, and were out to 87–65 at the last break before closing it out 109–88. A 21-point win, not a 36-point loss. That's about as clean a miss as the model will cop.

The disposal and territory numbers explain why. Giants finished with 375 disposals to 336, went inside 50 sixty-two times to Fremantle's 47, and were far tidier once they got there, landing 10 marks inside 50 to just 5. Efficiency was close, 76.3% to 75.0%, so this wasn't a case of one side being sloppy with it. It's volume and entries, Giants just had the ball in better positions more often.

Contested footy tells the same story. Giants won contested possessions 140 to 128 and clearances 42 to 28, the kind of edge that usually flows from a stronger midfield, and the pre-match ratings had that battle rated a near dead heat, 1173 to 1172. On the day it wasn't close. Fremantle's actual advantage sat in the ruck, 1121 to 1040 in the positional ratings and it showed in the hit-out count, but a ruckman winning taps to nobody in particular is just a stat for the record books.

Fremantle did win the tackle count, 67 to 58, and edged intercepts 66 to 62, so it's not as if they didn't compete for the ball. Their issue was turning defensive pressure into forward-half footy. Fremantle's form coming in had them conceding just 60.4 points a game across their five wins. They shipped 109 here, which says more about what Giants did to them than anything Fremantle did wrong defensively across the season.

Giants' defence rating, 1322 against Fremantle's 1209, was the biggest gap on the sheet pre-match, and it lines up with a scoreline where Fremantle never got the surge going despite the touches. Marks tell a similar tale, 86 to 74 in Giants' favour, control without the ball as much as with it.

A tough one for the model to explain away. Favourites by five goals and change, beaten by three, with the total also running hot, 197 points played against a 169 prediction. Sometimes the ratings and the form line just don't survive first contact with the ground.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 33 | 25 | 29 | 22 | 109 |
| Fremantle | 31 | 14 | 20 | 23 | 88 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| **375** | Disposals | 336 |
| **140** | Contested poss. | 128 |
| **42** | Clearances | 28 |
| **62** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| **86** | Marks | 74 |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| 58 | Tackles | **67** |
| 24 | Hit-outs | **46** |
| 62 | Intercepts | **66** |
| **76.3%** | Disposal eff. | 75.0% |

**Model Report Card**

GWS GIANTS defied the model's 90% prediction for Fremantle, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 35.9 but the actual margin was 21 points. The game's 197 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 169. GWS GIANTS led 58–45 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 21. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.33 (edge +15.0%) — model probability 90.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -20.5 @ $1.90 (edge +15.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 36 · Predicted total: 169

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Fremantle here: 90% to see off GWS GIANTS. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Fremantle sit 332 ELO points clear, 1849 to 1516. Form leans Fremantle's way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for GWS GIANTS.

Fremantle own the matchup too, leading 2 of 7 factors including ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Fremantle by 35.9, with the two sides combining for about 169. Fremantle to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 104.0pts | Avg Score | 108.2pts |
| 87.6pts | Avg Conceded | 60.4pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Margin | 47.8pts |
| 389.4 | Disposals | 376.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 63.0 | Tackles | 50.0 |
| 37.6 | Clearances | 33.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | R11 W · R12 W · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L | 104.0 |
| Fremantle | R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R15 W · R16 W | 108.2 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 166 · 142 | 152 · 98 |
| Goal Assists | 5.5/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 89/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.9/g | 15.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.9/g | 11.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.2% | 71.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 29 · 43 | 62 · 32 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 5.2/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 167/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.5/g | 27.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.9/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 71.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 13 | 2 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 146/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.3/g | 10.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.2% | 83.7% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.1/g (lg 4.47) -8% · Midfielders 2.15/g (lg 2.47) -13% · Defenders 0.95/g (lg 1.1) -14%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.14/g (lg 1.1) +4% · Rucks 0.5/g (lg 0.51) -2% · Key Forwards 3.73/g (lg 3.84) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 28 in 15g | 19/10g (0·3·1·3·2·5·1·3·0·1) | 16/9g | 10/6g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 60' 88' 73' 82' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 24 in 15g | 21/10g (0·2·1·3·0·5·3·2·3·2) | 16/12g | 57/33g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 47' 89' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 21 in 10g | 21/10g (4·3·2·1·0·3·1·4·1·2) | 2/3g | 13/10g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' 91' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·3·0·0·3) | 4/3g | 10/8g | 44% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 9 in 11g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 4/9g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/11g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/7g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 4 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/13g | 16/30g | 20% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/10g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 3 in 4g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·4·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 36% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Conor Stone | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Harrison Oliver | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 14/23g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/7g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/16g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ough | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Josaia Delana | FWD | 0 in 4g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 3/27g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hamilton | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 36 in 15g | 27/10g (5·3·0·3·2·4·4·2·3·1) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 34 in 15g | 22/10g (1·3·3·2·2·2·3·4·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' 87' 93' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 28 in 14g | 24/10g (0·3·0·1·5·3·4·4·2·2) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 94' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 18 in 15g | 8/10g (0·0·1·1·1·2·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 73% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 17 in 15g | 14/10g (1·2·1·0·1·0·1·3·3·2) | 3/6g | 1/1g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 24' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (0·2·1·3·1·1·0·2·0·4) | 9/5g | 0/1g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 13 in 15g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 13/10g | 0/0g | 64% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 10 in 15g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 65% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 10 in 15g | 8/10g (0·0·3·0·0·1·1·3·0·0) | 5/7g | 1/2g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·1·2·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 1/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 5 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 2/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 5 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 2/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | 28.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 32 ✗ |
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.91 | 71% | 20 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.88 | 69% | 30 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 28 ✗ |
| Connor Idun | 19.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 26 ✗ |
| Joe Fonti ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 16 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 17.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 26 ✗ |
| Harry Rowston ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 87% | 10 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 22 ✗ |
| Harvey Thomas | 16.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 21 ✗ |
| Stephen Coniglio | 16.5 | $1.83 | 62% | 13 ✓ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 26.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 22 ✓ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 19 ✓ |
| Caleb Serong | 23.5 | $1.97 | 46% | 31 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 22.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 20 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 21.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 23 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 18 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | 18.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 14 ✓ |
| Neil Erasmus ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 10 ✓ |
| Karl Worner | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 29 ✗ |
| Hayden Young | 18.5 | $1.82 | 48% | 10 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 18.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 12 ✓ |
| Matthew Johnson | 16.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 16 ✓ |
| Judd McVee | 16.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 10 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — GWS GIANTS 1516 · Fremantle 1849 · ELO difference: 332 in favour of Fremantle

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | GWS GIANTS | Fremantle | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1173 (best 1420) | 1172 (best 1498) | GWS GIANTS +1 |
| Forwards | 1195 (best 1405) | 1183 (best 1326) | GWS GIANTS +13 |
| Defence | 1322 (best 1463) | 1209 (best 1367) | GWS GIANTS +113 |
| Ruck | 1040 (best 1040) | 1121 (best 1425) | Fremantle +82 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Fremantle |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Fremantle |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 90%** — Fremantle predicted to win by 36 points · Predicted total: 169 pts

**Record:** 0/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:23 UTC (latest tip update)