# Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood — AFL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 98 – 104 Collingwood

_Collingwood hold off a gallant Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 45 – 57 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 12% / Collingwood 88% · People First Stadium · Sat, 04 July, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Jed Walter (12' Tipped ⚡), Ethan Read (18'), Zeke Uwland (21'), Leo Lombard (38'), Dylan Patterson (40'), Bailey Humphrey (65' ×3), Ben King (76' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben Long (79' ×2), Noah Anderson (81') · Collingwood: Harvey Harrison (6' 1st), Jack Crisp (23'), Angus Anderson (29' ×2), Steele Sidebottom (49'), Daniel McStay (58' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Nick Daicos (73' Tipped ⚡), Sam Swadling (82'), Tim Membrey (97' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Lachie Schultz (76' Tipped ⚡), Patrick Lipinski (91')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 88% | Won |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 48.9 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 July 2026, 10:30 pm · Last updated: 4 July 2026, 07:23 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 98–104 Collingwood in AFL Round 17 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood's buffer peaked at half time, 57 to 45, a 12-point break that looked like it might be the start of a canter. Instead Gold Coast SUNS came out and reeled off 27 points in the third term to Collingwood's 22, cutting the margin back to 7 by the three-quarter break. Then they did it again in the last, outscoring Collingwood 26 to 25 and getting within 6 points at the final siren. Not enough. Collingwood 104, Gold Coast SUNS 98.

So this wasn't a game that got away from anyone early and stayed that way. It was a 12-point lead ground down to single figures twice over, and Collingwood just had enough fat in the bank from that first-half burst to survive both pushes.

The disposal count says Gold Coast SUNS dominated, 409 to 354, and they won the contested ball too, 133 to 121, plus 54 hit-outs to 33. On raw volume this looks like a Gold Coast SUNS win. It wasn't, because Collingwood did the damage that actually matters on a scoreboard.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 20 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 98 |
| Collingwood | 28 | 29 | 22 | 25 | 104 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| **409** | Disposals | 354 |
| **133** | Contested poss. | 121 |
| 40 | Clearances | **43** |
| 53 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| **120** | Marks | 73 |
| 5 | Marks inside 50 | **15** |
| 43 | Tackles | **75** |
| **54** | Hit-outs | 33 |
| 56 | Intercepts | **64** |
| **74.8%** | Disposal eff. | 72.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 48.9 but the actual margin was 6 points. The game's 202 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 168. The model went 2/4 on this match. Collingwood covered the 8.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $2.35 (edge +45.0%) — model probability 87.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +8.5 @ $1.90 (edge +57.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 49 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Collingwood here: 88% to see off Gold Coast SUNS. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Collingwood sit 51 ELO points clear, 1520 to 1469. Form leans Collingwood's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Gold Coast SUNS.

Collingwood own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Collingwood by 48.9, with the two sides combining for about 168. Collingwood to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 73.2pts | Avg Score | 88.8pts |
| 103.0pts | Avg Conceded | 77.2pts |
| -29.8pts | Avg Margin | 11.6pts |
| 375.2 | Disposals | 383.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 50.6 | Tackles | 62.0 |
| 31.2 | Clearances | 35.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | R11 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L | 73.2 |
| Collingwood | R11 W · R12 L · R13 L · R15 W · R16 W | 88.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 150 · 132 | 131 · 116 |
| Goal Assists | 5.5/g | 4.9/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.4/g | 21.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 10.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.5% | 70.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 29 · 43 | 44 · 41 |
| Goal Assists | 2.5/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 102/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.6/g | 19.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.4% | 72.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 16 | 4 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 1.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 146/g | 129/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.3/g | 11.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 83.5% | 80.5% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.56/g (lg 0.51) +10% · Defenders 1.1/g (lg 1.09) +1% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.49) -4%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.14/g (lg 1.09) +5% · Forwards 4.6/g (lg 4.45) +3% · Midfielders 2.46/g (lg 2.49) -1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 43 in 15g | 22/10g (3·2·2·4·1·1·4·3·1·1) | 12/6g | 130/54g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' 86' 70' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 19 in 14g | 15/10g (3·2·2·0·0·2·2·0·4·0) | 3/6g | 36/31g | 74% | — | 🏉 79' 97' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 19 in 10g | 19/10g (2·2·2·0·3·3·2·1·2·2) | 0/1g | 20/13g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 18 in 13g | 11/10g (3·0·2·1·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 12/15g | 19/14g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 9 in 12g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 28/29g | 46% | — | 🏉 65' 80' 83' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·0·0·4·3·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 13/13g | 50% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 9 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 7/8g | 38% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/18g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 31/96g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 46% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/23g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 32/57g | 30% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 9/59g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 22/45g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/24g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/30g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/8g | 36/56g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Beau Addinsall | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ben Jepson | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Patterson | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Jai Murray | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/61g | 0% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 23 in 15g | 15/10g (2·2·1·3·1·2·1·2·1·0) | 16/16g | 12/12g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' 60' 74' |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 19 in 15g | 13/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·2·0·2·4) | 6/6g | 8/10g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 18 in 14g | 14/10g (1·0·1·0·2·3·1·2·1·3) | 3/5g | 3/4g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 17 in 11g | 17/10g (1·4·1·1·2·0·3·0·3·2) | 14/11g | 11/9g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 97' 69' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 16 in 14g | 12/10g (0·3·2·0·0·0·1·2·3·1) | 12/9g | 4/5g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Angus Anderson | FWD | 9 in 8g | 9/8g (1·0·2·1·1·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 88% | — | 🏉 29' 46' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 7 in 8g | 11/10g (1·3·0·0·1·2·0·2·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 61% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 5/7g | 5/9g | 38% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/15g | 1/8g | 24% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 0/9g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 3/8g | 28% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/9g | 6/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Swadling | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/4g | 4/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Harrison | FWD | 0 in 4g | 6/10g (3·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 40% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam Puncher | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 29.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 20 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell | 25.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Touk Miller | 24.5 | $1.77 | 59% | 28 ✗ |
| John Noble | 24.5 | $2.00 | 46% | 33 ✗ |
| Bodhi Uwland ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 28 ✗ |
| Christian Petracca | 24.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 28 ✗ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.77 | 88% | 17 ✓ |
| Wil Powell ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 15 ✓ |
| Zeke Uwland ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 32 ✗ |
| Sam Collins | 14.5 | $1.97 | 49% | 12 ✓ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 33.5 | $1.94 | 52% | 31 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 25 ✓ |
| Jordan De Goey ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.92 | 77% | 16 ✓ |
| Dan Houston | 22.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 20.5 | $1.92 | 42% | 19 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 18.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 24 ✗ |
| Ned Long | 16.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 18 ✗ |
| Edward Allan ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 21 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Collingwood hold the ELO advantage (1520 vs 1469), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.74). The model sides with ELO, Collingwood predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Gold Coast SUNS 1469 · Collingwood 1520 · ELO difference: 51 in favour of Collingwood

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Gold Coast SUNS | Collingwood | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1290 (best 1491) | 1281 (best 1576) | Gold Coast SUNS +9 |
| Forwards | 1000 (best 1226) | 1272 (best 1576) | Collingwood +272 |
| Defence | 1216 (best 1382) | 1177 (best 1470) | Gold Coast SUNS +40 |
| Ruck | 1000 (best 1000) | 1165 (best 1165) | Collingwood +165 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Collingwood |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Collingwood |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Collingwood |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Collingwood |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 88%** — Collingwood predicted to win by 49 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-04 09:23 UTC (latest tip update)