# Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions
Thu, 02 July, 07:30 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 17

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.47 (edge +13.6%) — model probability 81.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -13.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 21 · Predicted total: 163

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 92.0pts | Avg Score | 102.6pts |
| 80.4pts | Avg Conceded | 101.4pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Margin | 1.2pts |
| 379.8 | Disposals | 356.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 58.0 | Tackles | 46.6 |
| 38.0 | Clearances | 40.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | R11 W · R12 L · R13 L · R14 W · R15 L | 92.0 |
| Brisbane Lions | R11 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 W · R16 W | 102.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-02 12:46 UTC (latest tip update)