# Essendon v St Kilda — AFL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 50 – 117 St Kilda

_St Kilda run riot over Essendon._

Half time: 21 – 86 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 12% / St Kilda 88% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 05 July, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Archer Day-Wicks (5' 1st), Peter Wright (22' Tipped ⚡), Nate Caddy (60' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben McKay (72'), Sullivan Robey (82') · St Kilda: Rowan Marshall (11' ×2), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (13'), Jack Higgins (24' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Bradley Hill (34'), Mitch Owens (36' Tipped ⚡), Anthony Caminiti (44'), Liam Henry (52'), Max Hall (56' Tipped ⚡), Hugo Garcia (57'), Cooper Sharman (77' Tipped ⚡), Liam Ryan (80' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 88% | Won |
| Essendon | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 44.2 predicted → 67 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 July 2026, 10:30 pm · Last updated: 5 July 2026, 06:11 pm_

Essendon 50–117 St Kilda in AFL Round 17 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Essendon and St Kilda clashed at Marvel Stadium, with the Saints showcasing a masterclass in ball control against Essendon's raw ambition. St Kilda's patience and precision led them to a commanding 117–50 victory, largely due to their superior possession game. They out-disposed Essendon 447 to 332, making every possession count. Essendon's ambition, while commendable, didn't translate into points or pressure.

From the start, St Kilda demonstrated their knack for precision and ball movement. Their disposal efficiency of 79.6% highlighted their ability to find targets, especially when compared to Essendon’s 75.0%. The Saints were clinical moving forward, collecting 18 marks inside the 50 compared to Essendon’s 7. While the Bombers tried to push forward, the Saints had the patience and poise to dismantle their efforts.

By quarter time, St Kilda had already opened up a 21-point lead, 34 to 13. By half-time, that lead had ballooned to 86-21. Essendon, despite their strong forward presence with a pre-match forward strength rating of 1236, struggled to get the ball into dangerous areas consistently. Their 37 inside 50s underscored this struggle, a stark contrast to St Kilda's 55.

The defensive units told a similar story. Despite Essendon's dominance in the ruck, winning 49 hit-outs to St Kilda's 28, the Saints' defenders were more adept at reading the play. They recorded 57 intercepts against Essendon’s 44, easily cutting off Essendon's advances. With St Kilda’s defensive rating of 1312, Essendon’s 1093 was always going to face challenges.

The midfield battle, a crucial aspect of the game, also favoured the Saints. St Kilda entered the game with a stronger midfield on paper (1332 to Essendon’s 1280). On the field, they proved their strength, edging clearances 34 to 33 and contested possessions 115 to 109. With each contest, St Kilda built upon their lead, never allowing Essendon a foothold.

Though the Bombers entered the final quarter facing a 65-point deficit, they managed to claw back some respect. Adding 21 points to the scoreboard highlighted their offensive spiritedness, but the damage had been done. St Kilda's total score of 117 reflected their ambitious yet controlled game strategy.

In the end, Essendon's effort, though lacking statistically, should not be overshadowed by the numbers. Their ambition was evident, and their ruck dominance was clear. However, it was the Saints' meticulous approach and ability to maintain possession that dictated the pace and outcome of the game. A 67-point margin spoke volumes of St Kilda’s ability to combine patience with precision.

Alphr's model, while correctly predicting a St Kilda win with an 88% probability, underestimated the extent of their dominance. The model had pegged the expected margin at 44.2 points. The actual 67-point gap illustrated that even sophisticated algorithms can sometimes miss the nuances of a game. However, it got tantalisingly close with the combined total score prediction of 168, just one point off the actual 167. Sometimes, numbers do tell the story.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 13 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 50 |
| St Kilda | 34 | 52 | 8 | 23 | 117 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 332 | Disposals | **447** |
| 109 | Contested poss. | **115** |
| 33 | Clearances | **34** |
| 37 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| 82 | Marks | **127** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **18** |
| 46 | Tackles | **65** |
| **49** | Hit-outs | 28 |
| 44 | Intercepts | **57** |
| 75.0% | Disposal eff. | **79.6%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 44.2 but the actual margin was 67 points. Total score prediction of 168 was close to the actual 167, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.21 (edge +5.8%) — model probability 88.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -29.5 @ $1.90 (edge +14.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 44 · Predicted total: 168

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Kilda here: 88% to see off Essendon. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Kilda sit 329 ELO points clear, 1425 to 1096. Form leans St Kilda's way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Essendon.

St Kilda own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Kilda by 44.2, with the two sides combining for about 168. St Kilda to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Essendon | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 58.6pts | Avg Score | 80.0pts |
| 81.0pts | Avg Conceded | 99.6pts |
| -22.4pts | Avg Margin | -19.6pts |
| 369.2 | Disposals | 376.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 50.8 | Tackles | 54.0 |
| 33.6 | Clearances | 38.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R16 L | 58.6 |
| St Kilda | R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 W · R15 L | 80.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 88 · 158 | 125 · 141 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 78/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.7/g | 16.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.9/g | 8.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 67.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 49 · 48 | 46 · 38 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 154/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.1/g | 23.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.1% | 70.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 12 | 20 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 151/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.1/g | 11.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79% | 79% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.64/g (lg 2.49) +6% · Key Forwards 4.07/g (lg 3.85) +6% · Forwards 4.2/g (lg 4.46) -6%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.25/g (lg 4.46) +18% · Defenders 1.21/g (lg 1.09) +11% · Key Forwards 4.26/g (lg 3.85) +11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 27 in 14g | 19/10g (1·3·3·2·2·2·2·1·1·2) | 0/1g | 24/14g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 60' 76' 70' |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (1·0·2·1·1·1·0·2·3·0) | 14/8g | 85/43g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 8 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 2/5g | 14/38g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 8 in 15g | 4/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 11/25g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 8 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/13g | 33/92g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 7 in 7g | 10/10g (0·2·1·1·1·0·2·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 6/11g | 63% | — | — |
| – | Sullivan Robey | FWD | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 48% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 12/35g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 21% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/5g | 1/39g | 16% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 31/38g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Nik Cox | FWD | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (3·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 8/21g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Parish | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 16/59g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Dyson Sharp | FWD | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 12/50g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 5/18g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 8/67g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/30g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Bryan | RUC | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 5% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 22 in 10g | 22/10g (1·1·1·3·1·1·3·5·6·0) | 11/9g | 34/19g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 80' 87' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 20 in 15g | 14/10g (1·2·2·0·2·0·0·2·4·1) | 6/3g | 63/46g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 18 in 9g | 18/10g (0·1·2·2·2·0·4·5·1·1) | 19/9g | 106/69g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 46' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 16 in 15g | 9/10g (0·2·0·1·2·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 16/20g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.41 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 56' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 16 in 12g | 12/10g (1·2·2·2·0·3·1·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 55/48g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 13 in 14g | 11/10g (0·2·0·4·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 19/28g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 66% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 10 in 11g | 9/10g (3·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 2/5g | 15/55g | 50% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 9 in 13g | 8/10g (0·2·0·2·0·0·2·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 17/29g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 7/18g | 22/90g | 34% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 7/7g | 86/87g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 8/22g | 24% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | 6 in 5g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·0·3·1·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 8/20g | 32% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·3·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 53/86g | 42% | — | 🏉 11' 30' |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 32/46g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/4g | 25/37g | 22% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/47g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 7/47g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/85g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Lake | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/48g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 30.5 | $1.79 | 56% | 28 ✓ |
| Darcy Parish | 24.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 15 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 22.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 18 ✓ |
| Sam Durham | 22.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 24 ✗ |
| Will Setterfield | 21.5 | $1.89 | 51% | 10 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.92 | 63% | 17 ✓ |
| Jaxon Prior ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 13 ✓ |
| Dyson Sharp ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 87% | 17 ✓ |
| Xavier Duursma | 17.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 19 ✗ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 34.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 46 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.90 | 70% | 29 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $2.00 | 62% | 42 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 22 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie | 24.5 | $1.89 | 63% | 21 ✓ |
| Max Hall ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 72% | 33 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 25 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 20 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Essendon 1096 · St Kilda 1425 · ELO difference: 329 in favour of St Kilda

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Essendon | St Kilda | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1280 (best 1530) | 1332 (best 1489) | St Kilda +53 |
| Forwards | 1236 (best 1534) | 1025 (best 1447) | Essendon +211 |
| Defence | 1093 (best 1253) | 1312 (best 1562) | St Kilda +220 |
| Ruck | 1169 (best 1256) | 1221 (best 1318) | St Kilda +51 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | St Kilda |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | St Kilda |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Kilda |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Essendon |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | St Kilda |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | St Kilda |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 88%** — St Kilda predicted to win by 44 points · Predicted total: 168 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-05 08:11 UTC (latest tip update)