# Essendon v St Kilda — AFL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Essendon v St Kilda
Sun, 05 July, 03:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 17

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.21 (edge +5.8%) — model probability 88.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -29.5 @ $1.90 (edge +14.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 44 · Predicted total: 168

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Essendon | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 58.6pts | Avg Score | 80.0pts |
| 81.0pts | Avg Conceded | 99.6pts |
| -22.4pts | Avg Margin | -19.6pts |
| 369.2 | Disposals | 376.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 50.8 | Tackles | 54.0 |
| 33.6 | Clearances | 38.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R16 L | 58.6 |
| St Kilda | R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 W · R15 L | 80.0 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-05 08:11 UTC (latest tip update)