# Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 97 – 71 Adelaide Crows

_Port Adelaide see off Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 54 – 38 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 10% / Adelaide Crows 90% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 27 June, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Jason Horne-Francis (3' 1st), Mitch Georgiades (24' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Corey Durdin (38' ×3), Jase Burgoyne (43' ×2), Joe Berry (52' ×2), Mitch Zadow (63') · Adelaide Crows: Darcy Fogarty (15' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Josh Rachele (16' Tipped ⚡), Alex Neal-Bullen (22'), Riley Thilthorpe (29' Tipped ⚡), Zac Taylor (90' ×2), Ben Keays (69' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 90% | Lost |
| Port Adelaide | 10% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 35.1 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 June 2026, 06:48 pm · Last updated: 27 June 2026, 10:39 pm_

Port Adelaide 97–71 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 16 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Port Adelaide beat Adelaide Crows 97 to 71 at Adelaide Oval. Twenty-six points is a genuine hiding on paper, but look at the disposal count and it gets murkier: Adelaide had 333 of the ball to Port's 306, and used it better too, hitting targets at 69.7% against Port's 64.4%. This wasn't a case of one side smothering the other in general play. It was a case of one side making its own ball count for more.

The scoreboard tells the real story of when it turned. Port were actually behind at quarter time, 22 to 26, so whatever plan Adelaide had for the opening stanza worked fine. Then Port scored 32 points to Adelaide's 12 in the second term to lead 54 to 38 at the main break, and from there it was about defending a buffer rather than building one. By three-quarter time it was 85 to 52, game seemingly done.

Except the last quarter belonged to Adelaide, 19 points to 12. Worth flagging, because it means the margin at the death was tighter than at the last change, not wider. Port didn't need to be at their best in the final term. They just needed to not concede the 33-point gap they'd built, and they didn't.

The clearance count explains where Port actually won it. Forty-two to twenty-two is not a contest, it's a mismatch, and it fed directly into 52 inside 50s to 45 and, more tellingly, 17 marks inside 50 to Adelaide's 9. Adelaide got looks at it, Port took the chances that mattered. Hit-outs went 47 to 31 Port's way as well, which is the number that should raise an eyebrow given Adelaide came in rated the stronger ruck division, 1212 to 1116. Whatever was meant to happen around the contest didn't.

That mismatch runs right through the pre-match ratings. Adelaide were rated ahead in midfield, forwards, defence and ruck, and arrived with the form to match it, four wins from five against Port's one, averaging 94.8 points a game to Port's 70. On paper this was Adelaide's game to lose comfortably. Tackles finished level at 63 apiece and intercepts were close, 63 to 61, so it's not as if Port dominated every column. But clearances and forward-half efficiency were enough to flip a form line that heavily favoured the other side.

Alphr's model had Adelaide as roughly 90% favourites and expected them to win by 35.1 points. Instead Port won by 26, a swing of more than 61 points on the margin alone.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 22 | 32 | 31 | 12 | 97 |
| Adelaide Crows | 26 | 12 | 14 | 19 | 71 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 306 | Disposals | **333** |
| **135** | Contested poss. | 129 |
| **42** | Clearances | 22 |
| **52** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **100** | Marks | 79 |
| **17** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| 63 | Tackles | 63 |
| **47** | Hit-outs | 31 |
| **63** | Intercepts | 61 |
| 64.4% | Disposal eff. | **69.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Port Adelaide defied the model's 90% prediction for Adelaide Crows, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 35.1 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 168 points came in 167 points higher than the predicted 1. Port Adelaide led 54–38 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.27 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 90.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -22.5 @ $1.90 (edge +12.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 164.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 35

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Adelaide Crows here: 90% to see off Port Adelaide. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Adelaide Crows sit 399 ELO points clear, 1718 to 1319. Form leans Adelaide Crows' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Port Adelaide.

Adelaide Crows own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Adelaide Crows by 35.1, with the two sides combining for about 1. Adelaide Crows to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 70.0pts | Avg Score | 94.8pts |
| 86.4pts | Avg Conceded | 68.0pts |
| -16.4pts | Avg Margin | 26.8pts |
| 339.2 | Disposals | 391.2 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 55.6 | Tackles | 75.8 |
| 36.8 | Clearances | 36.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | R10 L · R11 L · R13 W · R14 L · R15 L | 70.0 |
| Adelaide Crows | R10 W · R11 L · R13 W · R14 W · R15 W | 94.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 99 · 116 | 120 · 112 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.1/g | 20.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.4/g | 8.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.3% | 67.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 46 · 37 | 57 · 33 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 148/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.6/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.5/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.2% | 70.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 12 | 7 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 103/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.2/g | 9.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.1% | 82.1% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.16/g (lg 1.11) +5% · Forwards 4.34/g (lg 4.45) -2% · Midfielders 2.24/g (lg 2.5) -10%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.22/g (lg 1.11) +10% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.51) +6% · Key Forwards 3.87/g (lg 3.83) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 31 in 14g | 21/10g (2·2·4·3·4·1·1·1·2·1) | 12/8g | 119/59g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 25' 71' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 20 in 14g | 13/10g (2·1·2·2·1·1·1·1·2·0) | 7/6g | 22/14g | 68% | — | 🏉 38' 51' 67' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 19 in 14g | 13/10g (2·2·1·0·0·0·3·3·2·0) | 5/6g | 48/46g | 68% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 15 in 14g | 8/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·2) | 1/1g | 8/10g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 10 in 14g | 8/10g (1·0·0·2·0·2·0·2·1·0) | 2/2g | 8/15g | 39% | — | 🏉 52' 59' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 8 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 15/21g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/4g | 8/29g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 6 in 5g | 13/10g (3·0·2·0·2·3·1·2·0·0) | 8/8g | 10/13g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 8/12g | 33/84g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/19g | 47/128g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 10/37g | 22% | — | 🏉 43' 87' |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 8/49g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/23g | 55/142g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 11/81g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/10g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/20g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/73g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/26g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/37g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Zadow | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Xavier Bamert | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 25 in 14g | 20/10g (4·1·0·2·2·3·1·0·4·3) | 8/6g | 73/48g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 18 in 12g | 13/10g (1·1·1·3·1·1·1·0·3·1) | 15/9g | 73/52g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 17 in 14g | 16/10g (3·2·1·3·1·2·0·2·1·1) | 13/16g | 78/84g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 17 in 11g | 17/10g (1·2·1·2·1·1·1·3·3·2) | 5/11g | 40/62g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 14 in 9g | 14/10g (0·0·3·1·1·5·1·0·2·1) | 47/22g | 302/137g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 78% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 11 in 11g | 10/10g (1·0·2·1·2·1·1·1·1·0) | 16/8g | 74/43g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 10 in 8g | 11/10g (0·1·2·2·0·2·1·0·1·2) | 16/10g | 122/77g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 45' 79' 86' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/13g | 20/35g | 46% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 8 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 0/4g | 4/24g | 29% | — | 🏉 90' 87' |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 10/24g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 25/56g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 7/27g | 32% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 11/23g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/23g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 9/51g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/24g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Hall-Kahan | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/14g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/39g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/32g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/47g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/23g | 18/145g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 37 ✗ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 83% | 14 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 23.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 29 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 12 ✓ |
| Ollie Wines ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 19 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 19.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 14 ✓ |
| Joe Richards ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.78 | 75% | 18 ✓ |
| Logan Evans ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 13 ✓ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 25.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 19 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson | 24.5 | $1.86 | 56% | 25 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 21 ✓ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 18 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 77% | 12 ✓ |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 92% | 20 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 15 ✓ |
| Mark Keane ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.85 | 69% | 17 ✓ |
| Brayden Cook | 17.5 | $1.89 | 57% | 8 ✓ |
| Isaac Cumming | 16.5 | $2.01 | 54% | 11 ✓ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 16.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 17 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Port Adelaide 1319 · Adelaide Crows 1718 · ELO difference: 399 in favour of Adelaide Crows

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Port Adelaide | Adelaide Crows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1223 (best 1411) | 1233 (best 1445) | Adelaide Crows +10 |
| Forwards | 1172 (best 1350) | 1196 (best 1332) | Adelaide Crows +23 |
| Defence | 1323 (best 1600) | 1434 (best 1549) | Adelaide Crows +111 |
| Ruck | 1116 (best 1309) | 1212 (best 1212) | Adelaide Crows +96 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Port Adelaide |

**Model Confidence: 90%** — Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 35 points · Predicted total: 1 pts

**Record:** 0/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-27 12:39 UTC (latest tip update)