# North Melbourne v Essendon — AFL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### North Melbourne v Essendon
Sun, 28 June, 03:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 16

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $1.45 (edge +8.3%) — model probability 77.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +14.5 @ $1.89 (edge +50.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 14

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| North Melbourne | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 70.8pts | Avg Score | 57.8pts |
| 102.8pts | Avg Conceded | 86.0pts |
| -32.0pts | Avg Margin | -28.2pts |
| 335.4 | Disposals | 373.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 54.2 | Tackles | 51.0 |
| 34.4 | Clearances | 35.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | R10 L · R11 W · R13 L · R14 W · R15 W | 70.8 |
| Essendon | R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L | 57.8 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-28 07:58 UTC (latest tip update)