# Hawthorn v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 96 – 82 GWS GIANTS

_Hawthorn see off GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 60 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 65% / GWS GIANTS 35% · MCG · Fri, 26 June, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Jack Dalton (3' ×2 1st), Calsher Dear (14'), Connor Macdonald (19'), Jack Ginnivan (38' ×2), Nick Watson (48' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Cam Mackenzie (53'), Mabior Chol (70' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Lewis (96' Tipped ⚡) · GWS GIANTS: Lachie Ash (9'), Stephen Coniglio (15'), Callum Brown (64' ×3), Toby Greene (75' Tipped ⚡), Aaron Cadman (84' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Finn Callaghan (93'), Clayton Oliver (89'), Jake Stringer (95' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 65% | Won |
| GWS GIANTS | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.3 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs GWS GIANTS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 June 2026, 06:48 pm · Last updated: 26 June 2026, 10:53 pm_

Hawthorn 96–82 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 16 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hawthorn 96, GWS GIANTS 82 at the MCG, and the contrast between the two game plans tells you almost everything. Hawthorn wanted the ball in hand and moving forward with purpose. GWS wanted the contest, wherever it happened, and figured the rest would follow. Only one of those plans actually won points on the board.

Start with the numbers that look odd at first glance. GWS had more of the ball, 383 disposals to 373, and won the intercept battle too, 76 to 65. On paper that reads like a team in control. But Hawthorn's disposal efficiency was 73.2% against GWS's 66.8%, and that's the gap that mattered. Hawthorn didn't need as many touches because the ones they had counted. GWS moved the ball more often and moved it worse.

The territory numbers back this up. Hawthorn went inside 50 sixty-three times to GWS's forty, a gap of 23 entries that's hard to overcome no matter how well you defend once the ball arrives. And defend it GWS did, to a point: 84 tackles to 69, real pressure, and 12 marks inside 50 to Hawthorn's 11 shows they weren't hopeless up forward either. But you can only intercept and tackle what comes at you, and Hawthorn simply generated more of it.

Where Hawthorn really won the game was through the middle. Clearances went 54 to 30, and hit-outs 65 to 27, both landslide figures. That ruck gap is the most interesting number in the box score, because the pre-match ratings actually had GWS's ruck stocks well ahead, 1240 to 1031. Whatever edge that rating was meant to reflect didn't show up on the day. Hawthorn's rated midfield strength, 1246 to GWS's 1077, did show up, and it showed up early.

The scoreboard tells that story cleanly. Hawthorn led 23-16 at quarter time, useful but not decisive. By half time it was 60-30, meaning Hawthorn piled on 37 points to GWS's 14 in the second term alone. That's the period that broke the game open, and it happened well before anyone was talking about three-quarter time.

GWS did have periods of the second half where they were the better side. The margin at three-quarter time was 87-66, and it closed to 96-82 by the final siren, meaning GWS won the final term. It wasn't enough to threaten the result, but it's worth noting they didn't fold either.

Individually the box score doesn't need embellishing. GWS's defensive rating coming in, 1270 to Hawthorn's 1122, showed up in the intercept and tackle numbers. But Hawthorn's forward pressure and midfield clearance work meant that strong defence spent the day working overtime rather than shutting the game down.

For Alphr's model, this was a solid result. It backed Hawthorn at 65% and predicted a 4.3-point win. The actual margin was 14, comfortably in the right direction, and the model's pick of the 1-39 point margin band landed. Where it missed badly was the total: predicted at just 3 combined points, a figure that looks like an error rather than a genuine forecast, against an actual 178 scored between the two sides. GWS also covered the 19.5-point line. Three from four calls on a night where the shape of the result, if not its scale, was picked well in advance.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 23 | 37 | 27 | 9 | 96 |
| GWS GIANTS | 16 | 14 | 36 | 16 | 82 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 373 | Disposals | **383** |
| 140 | Contested poss. | **146** |
| **54** | Clearances | 30 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 40 |
| **79** | Marks | 74 |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| 69 | Tackles | **84** |
| **65** | Hit-outs | 27 |
| 65 | Intercepts | **76** |
| **73.2%** | Disposal eff. | 66.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 65% probability. The predicted margin of 4.3 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 178 points came in 176 points higher than the predicted 3. The model went 3/4 on this match. GWS GIANTS covered the 19.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.35 (edge -9.0%) — model probability 65.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +19.5 @ $1.89 (edge +15.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 4

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hawthorn here: 65% to see off GWS GIANTS. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hawthorn sit 165 ELO points clear, 1698 to 1533. Form leans Hawthorn's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for GWS GIANTS.

Hawthorn own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hawthorn by 4.3, with the two sides combining for about 3. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Hawthorn to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hawthorn | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 91.8pts | Avg Score | 101.8pts |
| 85.4pts | Avg Conceded | 86.0pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Margin | 15.8pts |
| 385.8 | Disposals | 389.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 56.6 | Tackles | 62.8 |
| 35.8 | Clearances | 39.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | R10 L · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L · R15 W | 91.8 |
| GWS GIANTS | R10 L · R11 W · R12 W · R14 L · R15 L | 101.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 156 · 122 | 157 · 129 |
| Goal Assists | 5.4/g | 5.5/g |
| Disposals | 117/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.3/g | 23.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 9.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.1% | 66.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 24 · 48 | 27 · 42 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 126/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.5/g | 19.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.8% | 70.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 16 · 7 | 3 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 142/g | 146/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.9/g | 11.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.7% | 80.4% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.16/g (lg 1.11) +5% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0% · Key Forwards 3.71/g (lg 3.84) -3%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Midfielders 2.48/g (lg 2.49) +0% · Forwards 4.12/g (lg 4.44) -7% · Key Forwards 3.4/g (lg 3.84) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 36 in 14g | 26/10g (1·5·2·2·3·3·2·2·3·3) | 4/4g | 48/25g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' 59' 61' |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 21 in 14g | 17/10g (3·3·1·2·1·2·1·3·0·1) | 4/6g | 65/37g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 96' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 15 in 13g | 11/10g (0·2·1·1·0·2·1·0·0·4) | 9/10g | 58/58g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 15 in 9g | 16/10g (1·2·1·2·2·0·1·2·3·2) | 12/8g | 46/36g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' 75' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 12 in 14g | 10/10g (1·0·1·3·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 8/7g | 35/44g | 62% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 11 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 8/8g | 66/54g | 66% | — | 🏉 38' 54' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 9 in 14g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·4·4·0·1) | 1/14g | 12/83g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/9g | 15/47g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 8/25g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 10/32g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | 3 in 4g | 8/10g (2·0·1·1·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 17/11g | 68% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 9/31g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Will Day | MID | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (0·3·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 5/28g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/22g | 12% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 11/50g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/26g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Perez | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Jack Dalton | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 3' 87' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 31/85g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 3/30g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 3/35g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 10/40g | 8% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 27 in 14g | 19/10g (1·0·3·1·3·2·5·1·3·0) | 25/13g | 84/52g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 95' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 22 in 14g | 20/10g (1·0·2·1·3·0·5·3·2·3) | 17/16g | 31/25g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 19 in 9g | 19/10g (0·4·3·2·1·0·3·1·4·1) | 5/5g | 3/4g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 84' 98' |
| – | Phoenix Gothard | FWD | 18 in 14g | 14/10g (1·2·1·2·2·0·2·1·2·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.57 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 14 in 8g | 20/10g (3·3·2·0·1·1·2·2·3·3) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brent Daniels | FWD | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·3·1·0·2·2·2·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 5/14g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 6/6g | 10/15g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·3·0·0) | 5/5g | 3/5g | 40% | — | 🏉 64' 79' 82' |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/7g | 26% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 3 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 15/17g | 18% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 24/107g | 12% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Conor Stone | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Oliver | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 18/21g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/12g | 4% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 6/24g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/13g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 26.5 | $1.94 | 56% | 31 ✗ |
| Karl Amon ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 21 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $2.00 | 67% | 16 ✓ |
| Will Day ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 77% | 27 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 22.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 22 ✓ |
| Cam Mackenzie | 20.5 | $1.99 | 59% | 27 ✗ |
| Connor Macdonald ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 25 ✗ |
| Josh Battle | 19.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 23 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.81 | 66% | 23 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 19.5 | $1.97 | 45% | 21 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 17.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 13 ✓ |
| Harry Morrison | 17.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 16 ✓ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.93 | 70% | 28 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.76 | 70% | 34 ✗ |
| Clayton Oliver | 29.5 | $1.97 | 51% | 34 ✗ |
| Lachie Whitfield | 28.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 33 ✗ |
| Brent Daniels ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.94 | 85% | 4 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 19.5 | $1.99 | 53% | 19 ✓ |
| Harvey Thomas | 18.5 | $1.96 | 59% | 17 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 16.5 | $1.80 | 39% | 24 ✗ |
| Joe Fonti | 16.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 21 ✗ |
| Stephen Coniglio | 16.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 14 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hawthorn 1698 · GWS GIANTS 1533 · ELO difference: 165 in favour of Hawthorn

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Hawthorn | GWS GIANTS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1246 (best 1346) | 1077 (best 1318) | Hawthorn +169 |
| Forwards | 1158 (best 1359) | 1169 (best 1350) | GWS GIANTS +10 |
| Defence | 1122 (best 1473) | 1270 (best 1493) | GWS GIANTS +148 |
| Ruck | 1031 (best 1094) | 1240 (best 1240) | GWS GIANTS +209 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Hawthorn |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Hawthorn |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hawthorn |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Hawthorn predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 3 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-26 12:53 UTC (latest tip update)