# Fremantle v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 80 – 29 Gold Coast SUNS

_Fremantle demolish Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 31 – 11 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 46% / Gold Coast SUNS 54% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 28 June, 05:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Michael Frederick (5' ×4 1st Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (22' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Voss (62' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sean Darcy (81'), Final quarter (29m 2s)Andrew Brayshaw (58'), Jye Amiss (83' Tipped ⚡) · Gold Coast SUNS: Jed Walter (79' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 54% | Lost |
| Fremantle | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.9 predicted → 51 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 June 2026, 06:48 pm · Last updated: 28 June 2026, 07:53 pm_

Fremantle 80–29 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 16 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-eight to two. That was the first quarter at Optus Stadium, and it told you everything about how the rest of this one would go.

Gold Coast SUNS actually won the clearance count for the day, 36 to 24, and out-hit Fremantle at the ruck contest 42 to 36. On paper, that's a midfield that should have been competitive. It wasn't, not where it counted, because none of that grunt work turned into scoreboard pressure early. By quarter time Fremantle led 28-2, and a margin like that in twenty-five minutes of footy is not something you claw back with clearance stats.

The final score was Fremantle 80, Gold Coast SUNS 29, a 51-point beating that only grew from there. Half time had it at 31-11, three-quarter time 60-20, and Fremantle just kept adding to it in the last quarter while Gold Coast SUNS could only manage nine. Once that first-term hole opened up, nothing in the SUNS' game plan closed it.

The disposal numbers explain why. Fremantle finished with 393 disposals to 329 and hit targets at 79.4% efficiency against Gold Coast SUNS' 69.3%. That ten-point gap in efficiency, multiplied out over almost 400 possessions each, is the difference between a side that controls territory and one that's constantly under the pump chasing it back.

And territory was the story. Fremantle went inside 50 fifty-four times to forty, then made those entries count with 17 marks inside forward 50 to just 4 for the SUNS. That's not a small edge, that's a side taking the ball in clean and finding a target every time it went forward, while Gold Coast SUNS were left scrambling to spoil rather than mark.

Fremantle's pressure numbers back it up too: 67 tackles to 45, and 68 intercepts to 57. Coming in, Fremantle's defence was rated the stronger unit, 1286 to 1236, and their ruck advantage was significant on paper too, 1171 to 1010, even though the actual hit-out count went the other way. The form line pointed the same direction, Fremantle five wins from five with an average winning margin of 46.2 points, Gold Coast SUNS one win from five and conceding an average of 101.6. Nothing about Saturday broke that pattern, it just confirmed it in emphatic fashion.

For Alphr's model, this one was a lesson in how much a bad start can override a competitive underlying contest. The pre-match read had Gold Coast SUNS as 54% favourites and picked the margin at just 1.9 points for Fremantle, with a combined total of only 3. Reality delivered a 51-point Fremantle win and 109 points on the board, 107 more than tipped. The only thing the model got right on this one was the under on the total line, going 1/4 across its full-time calls.

Gold Coast SUNS won the midfield battle in the stat column and still lost by 51. That tells you something about footy: winning the clearance count doesn't mean much if you can't turn it into scoreboard pressure. Fremantle didn't need to dominate every column, they just needed to be ruthless with what they had, and from that first quarter onward, they were.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 28 | 3 | 29 | 20 | 80 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 29 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **393** | Disposals | 329 |
| 115 | Contested poss. | **129** |
| 24 | Clearances | **36** |
| **54** | Inside 50s | 40 |
| **91** | Marks | 75 |
| **17** | Marks inside 50 | 4 |
| **67** | Tackles | 45 |
| 36 | Hit-outs | **42** |
| **68** | Intercepts | 57 |
| **79.4%** | Disposal eff. | 69.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Fremantle defied the model's 54% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.9 but the actual margin was 51 points. The game's 109 points came in 107 points higher than the predicted 3. Fremantle led 31–11 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 51. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 159.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $4.60 (edge +32.7%) — model probability 54.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +27.5 @ $1.90 (edge +25.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 159.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 2

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Gold Coast SUNS are the call at 54%, but Fremantle stay live at 46%. The ratings say otherwise: Fremantle sit 351 ELO points clear, 1834 to 1483, so the model is backing Gold Coast SUNS against the ratings gap. Form leans Fremantle's way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Gold Coast SUNS.

On paper Fremantle shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The model still sides with Gold Coast SUNS, which says Midfield ELO carry the most weight. The margin model has Fremantle by 1.9, with the two sides combining for about 3. Lean Gold Coast SUNS, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Fremantle | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 113.0pts | Avg Score | 87.0pts |
| 66.8pts | Avg Conceded | 101.6pts |
| 46.2pts | Avg Margin | -14.6pts |
| 365.6 | Disposals | 364.4 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 51.4 | Tackles | 49.2 |
| 34.2 | Clearances | 29.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R15 W | 113.0 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | R10 W · R11 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 L | 87.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 145 · 97 | 147 · 125 |
| Goal Assists | 4.7/g | 5.7/g |
| Disposals | 89/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.3/g | 23.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.6/g | 10.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.4% | 68.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 58 · 32 | 29 · 39 |
| Goal Assists | 5.2/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposals | 166/g | 100/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.1/g | 18.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.5% | 70.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 10 | 19 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 149/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.3/g | 14.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 83.2% | 83.9% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.16/g (lg 1.1) +5% · Forwards 4.61/g (lg 4.45) +4% · Midfielders 2.48/g (lg 2.49) +0%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.15/g (lg 4.45) -7% · Midfielders 2.2/g (lg 2.49) -12% · Defenders 0.97/g (lg 1.1) -12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 35 in 14g | 28/10g (2·5·3·0·3·2·4·4·2·3) | 5/4g | 78/46g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 83' |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 34 in 14g | 22/10g (0·1·3·3·2·2·2·3·4·2) | 6/5g | 83/50g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 88% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 26 in 13g | 24/10g (2·0·3·0·1·5·3·4·4·2) | 6/2g | 33/23g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' 75' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 18 in 14g | 10/10g (2·0·0·1·1·1·2·1·1·1) | 2/1g | 20/17g | 78% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 15 in 14g | 12/10g (0·1·2·1·0·1·0·1·3·3) | 9/6g | 45/49g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.52 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' 59' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 13 in 14g | 8/10g (1·1·2·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 15/10g | 40/30g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 10 in 9g | 10/10g (0·0·2·1·3·1·1·0·2·0) | 3/5g | 71/62g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.51 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 13' 17' 76' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 10 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·2·1) | 1/2g | 19/21g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 10 in 14g | 9/10g (1·0·0·3·0·0·1·1·3·0) | 1/3g | 41/61g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 7 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·3·1·2·0) | 3/5g | 15/48g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 28/73g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 5/31g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 4 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 33/96g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 7/37g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/45g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 9/60g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 10/25g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 24/67g | 24% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/68g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 21/74g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/26g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/97g | 0% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 42 in 14g | 23/10g (2·3·2·2·4·1·1·4·3·1) | 5/5g | 16/6g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 85% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 19 in 13g | 15/10g (0·3·2·2·0·0·2·2·0·4) | 4/8g | 11/6g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 18 in 12g | 11/10g (0·3·0·2·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 7/11g | 13/12g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 17 in 9g | 18/10g (1·2·2·2·0·3·3·2·1·2) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' 79' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 9 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/4g | 4/5g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 9 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 39% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/11g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 5/9g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Zeke Uwland | MID | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 1/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 2/9g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/7g | 1/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 2/10g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 3/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Beau Addinsall | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ben Jepson | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Ballard | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jai Murray | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.82 | 65% | 29 ✗ |
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.91 | 66% | 20 ✓ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 28 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 22.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 26 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark | 21.5 | $1.89 | 58% | 24 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 20.5 | $1.90 | 44% | 23 ✗ |
| Hayden Young ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 13 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 18.5 | $1.80 | 52% | 15 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 23 ✗ |
| Karl Worner | 17.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 23 ✗ |
| Neil Erasmus | 16.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 20 ✗ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.93 | 64% | 33 ✗ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.92 | 64% | 17 ✓ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.93 | 65% | 18 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 22 ✓ |
| Bodhi Uwland | 21.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 24 ✗ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.89 | 87% | 14 ✓ |
| Mac Andrew ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 20 ✗ |
| Wil Powell ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 16 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Fremantle 1834 · Gold Coast SUNS 1483 · ELO difference: 351 in favour of Fremantle

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Fremantle | Gold Coast SUNS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1195 (best 1471) | 1279 (best 1545) | Gold Coast SUNS +84 |
| Forwards | 1148 (best 1432) | 1126 (best 1600) | Fremantle +22 |
| Defence | 1286 (best 1374) | 1236 (best 1558) | Fremantle +50 |
| Ruck | 1171 (best 1600) | 1010 (best 1027) | Fremantle +161 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Fremantle |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Fremantle |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Fremantle |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Fremantle |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Fremantle |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 3 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-28 09:53 UTC (latest tip update)