# Collingwood v Richmond — AFL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Collingwood v Richmond
Sat, 27 June, 04:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 16

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.11 (edge -20.5%) — model probability 69.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +37.5 @ $1.90 (edge +19.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 18

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Collingwood | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 82.6pts | Avg Score | 66.2pts |
| 79.0pts | Avg Conceded | 104.6pts |
| 3.6pts | Avg Margin | -38.4pts |
| 388.8 | Disposals | 334.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 65.6 | Tackles | 45.2 |
| 36.4 | Clearances | 30.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | R10 L · R11 W · R12 L · R13 L · R15 W | 82.6 |
| Richmond | R10 L · R11 W · R12 L · R14 L · R15 L | 66.2 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-collingwood-v-richmond
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-27 09:17 UTC (latest tip update)