# Carlton v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 117 – 64 West Coast Eagles

_Carlton demolish West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 66 – 34 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 71% / West Coast Eagles 29% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 27 June, 01:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Harry McKay (6' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Mitch McGovern (7' ×2 Tipped ⚡), George Hewett (9' ×2), Francis Evans (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Cripps (30'), Talor Byrne (42' ×3), Matthew Cottrell (58'), Final quarter (30m 9s)Harry McKay (67'), Ben Ainsworth (83' Tipped ⚡), Will Hayward (87' Tipped ⚡), Jagga Smith (94') · West Coast Eagles: Harley Reid (10'), Willem Duursma (13'), Brady Hough (39' ×2), Bo Allan (47'), Bailey Williams (69' ×2), Jobe Shanahan (70' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 71% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.2 predicted → 53 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 June 2026, 06:48 pm · Last updated: 27 June 2026, 04:10 pm_

Carlton 117–64 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 16 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Carlton by 9.2 points. Carlton won by 53. That's not a near miss, that's a different sport.

The pick itself was fine. Carlton at 71% to win was always the reasonable read, given the ratings gap of 1502 to 1186 and a form line that had them winning five straight while West Coast had dropped three of their last five. The problem was scale. The model saw a contest. What turned up was 117–64, and a combined total of 181 points against a predicted total of 1, which is either a wild typo or the sort of miss that makes you check the inputs twice.

Carlton led 41–14 at quarter time, then 66–34 at the half, then 83–47 at three-quarter time. Every session, the margin grew. There was no West Coast fightback tucked into that scoreline anywhere, just Carlton building on a lead that was already out of hand by the first break.

The disposal count tells you why. Carlton finished with 445 to West Coast's 301, and used it better too, at 76.8% efficiency against 71.1%. Add 61 inside 50s to 49, and 20 marks inside forward 50 to just 4, and you've got a side that kept winning the ball back and kept finding a target once it got forward. West Coast simply couldn't stop the bleeding at the point of entry.

Midfield was where the pre-match numbers actually lined up with the game. Carlton went in rated 1267 to West Coast's 1034, and it showed: 48 clearances to 34, 61 tackles to 48, 142 contested possessions to 114. That's a complete boot from stoppage through to ground ball, and it fed everything else.

The one reversal worth noting is the ruck. West Coast were rated stronger there pre-match and it held up on paper, winning hit-outs 40–22. It just didn't matter. Winning the tap means nothing if your midfield can't win the footy after it lands, and Carlton's clearance number says that's exactly what happened. Intercepts were near dead even, 55 to 54 in West Coast's favour, so it wasn't a turnover avalanche either. Carlton just had the ball more, moved it better, and made more of every entry.

West Coast's form coming in had them at 2 wins from 5 with an average losing margin creeping the wrong way, and this result fits that trend rather than breaking it. Their forward rating of 1374 was actually the highest positional number on the ground, ahead of Carlton's 1227, but a strong forward line does nothing when the ball barely gets there. Four marks inside 50 for the game is a number that explains the scoreboard on its own.

So the model's win call held, 71% backed a side that won by 53. The margin model is the one that needs a look, out by 44 points, and the total projection wasn't in the same postcode as the result. One from four bets isn't a night to write home about, but the direction was right. The size of it just got away completely.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 41 | 25 | 17 | 34 | 117 |
| West Coast Eagles | 14 | 20 | 13 | 17 | 64 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **445** | Disposals | 301 |
| **142** | Contested poss. | 114 |
| **48** | Clearances | 34 |
| **61** | Inside 50s | 49 |
| **133** | Marks | 66 |
| **20** | Marks inside 50 | 4 |
| **61** | Tackles | 48 |
| 22 | Hit-outs | **40** |
| 54 | Intercepts | **55** |
| **76.8%** | Disposal eff. | 71.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.2 but the actual margin was 53 points. The game's 181 points came in 180 points higher than the predicted 1. Carlton led 66–34 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 53. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.14 (edge -17.2%) — model probability 70.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +33.5 @ $1.90 (edge +24.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 9

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Carlton here: 71% to see off West Coast Eagles. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Carlton sit 315 ELO points clear, 1502 to 1186. Form leans Carlton's way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for West Coast Eagles.

Carlton own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Carlton by 9.2, with the two sides combining for about 1. Carlton to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Carlton | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 82.8pts | Avg Score | 79.8pts |
| 67.2pts | Avg Conceded | 73.8pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 394.4 | Disposals | 345.8 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 49.6 | Tackles | 55.4 |
| 33.4 | Clearances | 33.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R15 W | 82.8 |
| West Coast Eagles | R10 W · R11 L · R12 W · R13 L · R14 L | 79.8 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 117 · 116 | 78 · 137 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposals | 100/g | 72/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.8/g | 11.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.5/g | 7.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.7% | 70.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 37 · 55 | 45 · 46 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 143/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.9/g | 24/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.6% | 69.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 10 | 11 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 120/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.6/g | 12.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.9% | 80.9% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Midfielders 3.43/g (lg 2.49) +38% · Rucks 0.7/g (lg 0.51) +37% · Defenders 1.33/g (lg 1.11) +20%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.67/g (lg 0.51) +31% · Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.11) +14% · Forwards 4.57/g (lg 4.45) +3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 22 in 14g | 17/10g (0·2·4·3·0·1·2·2·2·1) | 5/4g | 13/19g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 76% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 21 in 14g | 14/10g (2·3·3·1·3·0·2·0·0·0) | 8/8g | 19/36g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 53' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 18 in 13g | 14/10g (2·1·1·0·3·2·1·0·3·1) | 12/6g | 97/47g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 86' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 14 in 14g | 11/10g (2·2·0·2·2·1·0·0·1·1) | 7/7g | 19/25g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 14 in 13g | 12/10g (0·1·0·0·3·0·2·3·1·2) | 13/8g | 41/30g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 87' |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 8 in 12g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 0/2g | 7/7g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 86' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 6/10g | 50/74g | 46% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 6 in 13g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/22g | 18% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 5/13g | 12/45g | 36% | — | 🏉 9' 22' |
| – | Talor Byrne | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/9g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 44% | — | 🏉 42' 51' 82' |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 8/8g | 11/45g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ison | FWD | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Jagga Smith | MID | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 17% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 8/31g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/5g | 11/24g | 44% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Nic Newman | DEF | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 11/45g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 10/28g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 28/71g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Harry Dean | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/16g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/29g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wade Derksen | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 31 in 14g | 22/10g (1·1·1·3·3·3·1·3·3·3) | 7/8g | 16/11g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 17 in 14g | 14/10g (4·0·1·1·0·1·2·1·1·3) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 12 in 12g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·3·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 12/24g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 11 in 14g | 9/10g (1·0·1·2·1·2·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 4/7g | 52% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 9 in 13g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 52% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 5/7g | 3/14g | 38% | — | 🏉 69' 73' |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 12/21g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/5g | 1/19g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 15% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 1/13g | 18% | — | 🏉 39' 59' |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 3 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/11g | 6/17g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/13g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/25g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Herbert | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Milan Murdock | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 28.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 33 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps | 27.5 | $1.75 | 61% | 31 ✗ |
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 83% | 26 ✓ |
| Jagga Smith ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.88 | 79% | 23 ✓ |
| Nic Newman | 21.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 22 ✗ |
| Blake Acres | 21.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 21 ✓ |
| Oliver Florent | 20.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 19 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra | 19.5 | $1.80 | 52% | 18 ✓ |
| Billy Wilson ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 78% | 25 ✗ |
| Nick Haynes | 17.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 23 ✗ |
| Lachlan Cowan ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 19 ✗ |
| Will Hayward ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 18 ✗ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 69% | 19 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 22.5 | $1.93 | 52% | 23 ✗ |
| Willem Duursma | 20.5 | $1.92 | 60% | 12 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 19.5 | $1.74 | 55% | 13 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 18.5 | $1.78 | 61% | 23 ✗ |
| Liam Baker | 18.5 | $1.89 | 60% | 20 ✗ |
| Elliot Yeo | 16.5 | $1.99 | 54% | 15 ✓ |
| Milan Murdock ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.93 | 64% | 14 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Carlton 1502 · West Coast Eagles 1186 · ELO difference: 315 in favour of Carlton

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Carlton | West Coast Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1267 (best 1448) | 1034 (best 1156) | Carlton +233 |
| Forwards | 1227 (best 1299) | 1374 (best 1483) | West Coast Eagles +147 |
| Defence | 1260 (best 1488) | 1188 (best 1482) | Carlton +72 |
| Ruck | 1071 (best 1071) | 1000 (best 1000) | Carlton +71 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Carlton |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Carlton |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Carlton |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Carlton |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Carlton predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 1 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-carlton-v-west-coast-eagles
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-27 06:10 UTC (latest tip update)