# Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Thu, 25 June, 07:30 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 16

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.04 (edge +23.8%) — model probability 72.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +2.5 @ $1.90 (edge +25.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 23 · Predicted total: 171

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 92.6pts | Avg Score | 105.6pts |
| 108.2pts | Avg Conceded | 86.0pts |
| -15.6pts | Avg Margin | 19.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 397.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 46.2 | Tackles | 58.0 |
| 40.8 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 W | 92.6 |
| Sydney Swans | R10 W · R11 L · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W | 105.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-25 12:34 UTC (latest tip update)