# Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Thu, 25 June, 07:30 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 16
Today JSON API: https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today
Weekly JSON API: https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 72.8% / Sydney Swans 27.2%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.04 (edge +23.8%) — model probability 72.8%
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +2.5 @ $1.90 (edge +25.9%)
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%)
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 23
- Predicted total points: 171
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-brisbane-lions-v-sydney-swans

### Match Overview

Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sydney Swans. Sydney Swans are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO, but Brisbane Lions counter with Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Sydney Swans carry a 193-point ELO rating advantage (1780 vs 1587). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 23.4 points with a combined total of 171.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 92.6pts | Avg Score | 105.6pts |
| 108.2pts | Avg Conceded | 86.0pts |
| -15.6pts | Avg Margin | 19.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 397.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 46.2 | Tackles | 58.0 |
| 40.8 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 W | 92.6 |
| Sydney Swans | R10 W · R11 L · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W | 105.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-brisbane-lions-v-sydney-swans
Markdown view for AI agents. Full machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · Complete reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-24 12:38 UTC