# Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 126 – 83 Sydney Swans

_Brisbane Lions roar past Sydney Swans._

Half time: 55 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 73% / Sydney Swans 27% · Gabba · Thu, 25 June, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Charlie Cameron (14' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Cam Rayner (16' ×3), Logan Morris (23' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jarrod Berry (29'), Eric Hipwood (36'), Zac Bailey (46' ×2), Levi Ashcroft (59'), Conor McKenna (78' ×2), Darcy Fort (80'), Sam Draper (94'), Kai Lohmann (72' ×2) · Sydney Swans: Chad Warner (26' ×4 Tipped ⚡), James Rowbottom (31' ×2), Charlie Curnow (55' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Logan McDonald (68' Tipped ⚡), Angus Sheldrick (86'), Isaac Heeney (88' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 73% | Won |
| Sydney Swans | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 23.4 predicted → 43 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 June 2026, 08:09 pm · Last updated: 25 June 2026, 10:34 pm_

Brisbane Lions 126–83 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 16 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

A hundred and nine marks to sixty-nine. That's the number that explains a 126-83 flogging at the Gabba, Brisbane Lions marking the ball forty times more than Sydney and turning every one of them into forward-half control the Swans never wrestled back.

The scoreboard confirms it was one-way traffic from the first bounce. Brisbane led 25-15 at quarter time, stretched it to 55-28 by half time with a 30-point term, then piled on 38 more in the third quarter to lead 93-51 heading into the last change. Sydney's only genuine answer came in the final quarter, outscoring Brisbane 32-33, but by then the margin was already a rout looking for a final number.

Clearances tell the same story from a different angle. Brisbane won that battle 46-33, a gap that let them dictate where the contest happened, and 62 inside 50s to 56 turned that territory into scoreboard pressure. Sydney actually shaded the disposal count, 366 to 351, and edged disposal efficiency 68.0% to 67.8%, so this wasn't a case of Brisbane simply having the ball more. It's what they did with it, marking it inside their forward 50 thirteen times just like Sydney did, but doing so off a base of total field control the Swans couldn't match.

Sydney's intercept count, 80 to 75, and their hitout edge, 45 to 40, suggest Nick Blakey's teammates weren't asleep at the wheel defensively either. They just couldn't stem the volume. Brisbane's defence rating of 1416 coming in was the standout number on paper against Sydney's 1301, and on this evidence it held up, restricting a Swans side that had been averaging 105.6 points across their last five to well under half that scoring rate relative to what Brisbane produced.

That form line makes the result sting more for Sydney. They arrived on a WLWWW run, four wins from five, averaging 105.6 scored and just 86 conceded, with a healthy plus-19.6 average margin. Brisbane, by contrast, had been LLLWW, shipping 108.2 a game. On paper this was the in-form side against the out-of-form one. On the day, Brisbane's forward pack rating of 1147, actually the lower of the two forward ratings, still found a way past a Sydney defence that had underpinned their recent form.

Alphr's model backed Brisbane at 73% and got the winner right. The margin was where it came unstuck: tipped for a 23.4-point win, the Lions delivered 43. The total blew out too, 209 points played out against a predicted 171, a 38-point overshoot that speaks to how little resistance Sydney offered once the marks and clearances started piling up. Two out of four secondary markets landed, and Brisbane comfortably covered what would have been a 2.5-point line.

Wins and misses, all of it. The model called the right team, missed the size of the beating, and the number that mattered most, marks, was never on its radar in the first place.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 25 | 30 | 38 | 33 | 126 |
| Sydney Swans | 15 | 13 | 23 | 32 | 83 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Disposals | **366** |
| 142 | Contested poss. | **144** |
| **46** | Clearances | 33 |
| **62** | Inside 50s | 56 |
| **109** | Marks | 69 |
| 13 | Marks inside 50 | 13 |
| **62** | Tackles | 60 |
| 40 | Hit-outs | **45** |
| 75 | Intercepts | **80** |
| 67.8% | Disposal eff. | **68.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 23.4 but the actual margin was 43 points. The game's 209 points came in 38 points higher than the predicted 171. Brisbane Lions led 55–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 43. The model went 2/4 on this match. Brisbane Lions covered the 2.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.04 (edge +23.8%) — model probability 72.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +2.5 @ $1.90 (edge +25.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 23 · Predicted total: 171

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Brisbane Lions here: 73% to see off Sydney Swans. The ratings say otherwise: Sydney Swans sit 193 ELO points clear, 1780 to 1587, so the model is backing Brisbane Lions against the ratings gap. Form leans Sydney Swans' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Brisbane Lions.

On paper Sydney Swans shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The model still sides with Brisbane Lions, which says Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO carry the most weight. The margin model has Brisbane Lions by 23.4, with the two sides combining for about 171. Brisbane Lions to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 92.6pts | Avg Score | 105.6pts |
| 108.2pts | Avg Conceded | 86.0pts |
| -15.6pts | Avg Margin | 19.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 397.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 46.2 | Tackles | 58.0 |
| 40.8 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 W | 92.6 |
| Sydney Swans | R10 W · R11 L · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W | 105.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sydney Swans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | QE | Sydney Swans | 141 – 88 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2026 | R1 | Sydney Swans | 104 – 60 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | R22 | Brisbane Lions | 90 – 92 | Sydney Swans |
| 2025 | R1 | Sydney Swans | 82 – 86 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2024 | PF | Sydney Swans | 60 – 120 | Brisbane Lions |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 152 · 143 | 146 · 99 |
| Goal Assists | 5.5/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 97/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.2/g | 18.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.1/g | 10.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.6% | 68.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 44 · 40 | 78 · 43 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 5.2/g |
| Disposals | 166/g | 158/g |
| Inside 50s | 26.3/g | 28.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.8/g | 3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.3% | 69.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 9 | 9 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.9/g | 14.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.4% | 79.2% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.51) +33% · Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.49) -6% · Forwards 4.13/g (lg 4.44) -7%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.37/g (lg 4.44) -2% · Key Forwards 3.75/g (lg 3.84) -2% · Rucks 0.47/g (lg 0.51) -8%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 35 in 13g | 27/10g (0·3·2·4·4·2·1·1·7·3) | 6/3g | 48/25g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' 42' 82' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 30 in 14g | 22/10g (1·3·4·2·2·3·2·2·2·1) | 13/13g | 184/97g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 84% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 73' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 22 in 14g | 13/10g (1·1·1·4·2·0·3·0·0·1) | 5/5g | 36/31g | 70% | — | 🏉 72' 75' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 18 in 13g | 13/10g (2·0·3·4·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 15/9g | 87/88g | 72% | — | 🏉 46' 83' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 14 in 14g | 10/10g (1·2·1·2·0·1·3·0·0·0) | 10/10g | 80/88g | 68% | — | 🏉 16' 67' 86' |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 10 in 8g | 11/10g (1·0·2·2·0·1·2·0·1·2) | 4/8g | 10/29g | 34% | — | 🏉 78' 94' |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 8 in 13g | 8/10g (2·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 6/11g | 58% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·2) | 1/6g | 16/33g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 5 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 4/18g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 9/27g | 28% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 9/18g | 36% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/17g | 39/86g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 13/38g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 2 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 10/10g | 130/99g | 66% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | James Tunstill | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/8g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/11g | 44/95g | 26% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 8/44g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 7/47g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 10/94g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/122g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/42g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 23/117g | 2% | — | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 36 in 13g | 31/10g (4·0·3·7·1·1·2·8·2·3) | 16/9g | 12/5g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' 65' |
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 28 in 14g | 17/10g (0·2·3·4·1·0·4·1·1·1) | 7/6g | 2/2g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 83% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | 25 in 14g | 19/10g (1·2·0·3·3·2·2·2·1·3) | 6/4g | 4/2g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 23 in 12g | 19/10g (4·2·0·0·3·1·1·5·2·1) | 21/11g | 12/7g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 85% ✓ Scored | 🏉 88' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 18 in 14g | 14/10g (2·1·3·0·1·1·0·3·2·1) | 6/8g | 3/5g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' 65' 70' 80' |
| – | Malcolm Rosas | FWD | 16 in 12g | 14/10g (1·2·1·0·7·0·0·0·2·1) | 5/5g | 1/1g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/15g | 3/12g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 8 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 3/17g | 36% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 3/2g | 26% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/7g | 3/6g | 30% | — | 🏉 31' 88' |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 1/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | MID | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 9/7g | 6/4g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Peter Ladhams | RUC | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 4/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 2/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 4/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | William Edwards | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 27.5 | $1.91 | 42% | 27 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 26.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 30 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.90 | 73% | 16 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $2.00 | 72% | 20 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.92 | 62% | 26 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 18.5 | $1.83 | 62% | 21 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.80 | 45% | 24 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry | 18.5 | $1.93 | 54% | 18 ✓ |
| Harris Andrews | 14.5 | $1.72 | 62% | 12 ✓ |
| Ryan Lester | 14.5 | $1.86 | 39% | 7 ✓ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Blakey | 25.5 | $1.83 | 61% | 19 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney | 24.5 | $1.81 | 46% | 30 ✗ |
| Callum Mills ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.80 | 67% | 32 ✗ |
| Chad Warner | 23.5 | $1.82 | 63% | 28 ✗ |
| Errol Gulden | 23.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 18 ✓ |
| Riley Bice ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 23 ✗ |
| Tom McCartin | 18.5 | $1.84 | 54% | 14 ✓ |
| Sam Wicks | 18.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 17 ✓ |
| Jai Serong | 18.5 | $1.85 | 49% | 12 ✓ |
| Angus Sheldrick | 17.5 | $1.88 | 44% | 28 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 16.5 | $2.00 | 44% | 14 ✓ |
| Brodie Grundy | 16.5 | $1.87 | 22% | 18 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Brisbane Lions 1587 · Sydney Swans 1780 · ELO difference: 193 in favour of Sydney Swans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Brisbane Lions | Sydney Swans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1189 (best 1531) | 1173 (best 1377) | Brisbane Lions +16 |
| Forwards | 1147 (best 1462) | 1180 (best 1393) | Sydney Swans +34 |
| Defence | 1416 (best 1600) | 1301 (best 1472) | Brisbane Lions +115 |
| Ruck | 1102 (best 1188) | 1082 (best 1352) | Brisbane Lions +20 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Brisbane Lions |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 23 points · Predicted total: 171 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-25 12:34 UTC (latest tip update)