# Richmond v North Melbourne — AFL Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 48 – 73 North Melbourne

_North Melbourne see off Richmond._

Half time: 22 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 35% / North Melbourne 65% · MCG · Sun, 21 June, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Jasper Alger (43' Tipped ⚡), Mykelti Lefau (48' Tipped ⚡), Noah Balta (61' ×2), Liam Fawcett (68' Tipped ⚡) · North Melbourne: George Wardlaw (22' ×2 1st), Cooper Trembath (32' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Nick Larkey (33' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Konstanty (62'), Tristan Xerri (67'), Dylan Stephens (81')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 65% | Won |
| Richmond | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.6 predicted → 25 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 15 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 June 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 21 June 2026, 03:57 pm_

Richmond 48–73 North Melbourne in AFL Round 15 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen marks inside forward fifty to nine. That's the gap that decided it, and North Melbourne turned it into a 73-48 win over Richmond at the MCG.

Marks were the story everywhere on the ground, not just inside fifty. North Melbourne finished with 129 to Richmond's 83, a 46-mark advantage that speaks to clean use and a side that kept finding targets under pressure. Disposal efficiency backs it up too, 77.5% to 73.3%. When you're that much cleaner with ball in hand, the scoreboard tends to agree with you eventually.

The game was tight for about a quarter. Scores were locked at 8-8 at the first break, genuinely even. From there North Melbourne started pulling clear, leading 30-22 at half time before the contest really got away from Richmond in the third quarter, blowing out to 52-26 at three-quarter time. That's 26 points to 4 in a single term, and it's where the match was effectively settled. Richmond outscored them 22-21 in the last quarter, which counts for something, but by then the margin was already unrecoverable.

The ruck numbers pre-match told you this was coming. North Melbourne's ruck rating of 1450 against Richmond's 1084 is about as lopsided as these positional gaps get, and the flow-on into clearances (24-22) and hit-outs (30-26) gave North Melbourne first use of the ball all day. Add a midfield edge of 1366 to 1253 and Richmond were fighting uphill in every stoppage before the ball had even hit the deck.

North Melbourne's pressure game matched their clean hands. Fifty-three tackles to 37 is a big differential, and 63 intercepts to 51 shows a side that read the play and cut off supply as well as generating their own. Richmond actually won the inside-50 count, 48 to 44, which on paper looks like a positive, but with North Melbourne hoovering up the marks and the intercepts, Richmond's forward entries too often came to nothing.

Form lines had this one leaning North Melbourne's way before a ball was bounced. They'd won two of their last five to Richmond's one, and while both sides were leaking points at a similar clip, North Melbourne's scoring average of 75.6 against Richmond's 68.8 was the more telling gap. Richmond's LLWLL finish and North Melbourne's LLWLW suggested a side building a touch more momentum, and that's roughly how it played out.

Alphr's model had North Melbourne at 65% to win pre-match, and that call landed. The margin read didn't, tipping just 0.6 points when the actual gap was 25. The total was miles off too, 191 points projected against 121 actual, a defensive slog compared to what was expected. Two from four on this one, with the draw margin band the lone accurate pick beyond the winner. The scoreboard did what North Melbourne's forward-fifty marking and ruck dominance suggested it would. The margin model just didn't see the third-quarter surge coming.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 8 | 14 | 4 | 22 | 48 |
| North Melbourne | 8 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 73 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 318 | Disposals | **373** |
| 104 | Contested poss. | **108** |
| 22 | Clearances | **24** |
| **48** | Inside 50s | 44 |
| 83 | Marks | **129** |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| 37 | Tackles | **53** |
| 26 | Hit-outs | **30** |
| 51 | Intercepts | **63** |
| 73.3% | Disposal eff. | **77.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted North Melbourne to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.6 but the actual margin was 25 points. The game's 121 points came in 70 points lower than the predicted 191. North Melbourne led 22–30 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 25. The model went 2/4 on this match. The Draw margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $1.37 (edge -8.2%) — model probability 64.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +17.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne Draw @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 175.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 1 · Predicted total: 191

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on North Melbourne here: 65% to see off Richmond. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: North Melbourne sit 222 ELO points clear, 1368 to 1146. Form leans North Melbourne's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Richmond.

North Melbourne own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back North Melbourne to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Richmond | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 68.8pts | Avg Score | 75.6pts |
| 109.6pts | Avg Conceded | 114.2pts |
| -40.8pts | Avg Margin | -38.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 L · R14 L | 68.8 |
| North Melbourne | R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R13 L · R14 W | 75.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 93 · 136 | 124 · 123 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 83/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.2/g | 14.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.8/g | 9.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.7% | 73.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 63 | 29 · 50 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 144/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.8/g | 23.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.5% | 73.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 7 | 12 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.8/g | 9.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.8% | 80.7% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.71/g (lg 0.51) +39% · Key Forwards 5.24/g (lg 3.84) +36% · Defenders 1.47/g (lg 1.11) +32%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.51) +33% · Key Forwards 4.97/g (lg 3.84) +29% · Midfielders 3.12/g (lg 2.49) +25%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 13 in 13g | 8/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·0·2·0·1) | 3/4g | 15/20g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 12 in 13g | 9/10g (0·1·2·2·3·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/4g | 24/30g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 11 in 11g | 10/10g (0·0·4·0·2·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 12/12g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| – | Liam Fawcett | KF | 10 in 6g | 11/7g (1·2·3·0·3·0·2) | 0/1g | 2/1g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| – | Jasper Alger | FWD | 7 in 4g | 9/8g (0·2·0·0·0·0·3·4) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·3·1·1·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 27/62g | 30% | — | 🏉 61' 63' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 2/9g | 31/55g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Sam Cumming | MID | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 71% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 4/23g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 20/108g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 9g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 32/92g | 24% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 2/18g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 17/33g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 17/145g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/29g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/46g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/99g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | no games | 3/7g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/4g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 26/94g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/27g | 18% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 30 in 13g | 18/10g (2·1·2·4·1·0·1·2·1·4) | 17/7g | 19/8g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 19 in 12g | 18/10g (1·1·1·1·3·2·1·3·1·4) | 34/18g | 61/30g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 88% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 18 in 13g | 13/10g (3·2·3·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 6/2g | 0/0g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' 54' 65' 75' |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 15 in 13g | 11/10g (3·0·2·0·3·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 8 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 16/7g | 22/8g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/10g | 4/12g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 3/6g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 29/50g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 3/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/3g | 43% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 34% | — | 🏉 22' 60' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/7g | 2/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 26% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/9g | 16% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/18g | 24/40g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/18g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/14g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 3/23g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Harvey | DEF | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (0·0·1·4·2·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/1g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Goad | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 23 ✓ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 29 ✗ |
| Dion Prestia ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 20 ✓ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 26 ✗ |
| Seth Campbell ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 79% | 22 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 15.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 11 ✓ |
| Patrick Retschko | 15.5 | $1.87 | 37% | 14 ✓ |
| James Trezise | 14.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 20 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel ⚡ Under | 33.5 | $1.93 | 68% | 31 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 18 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 26.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 30 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.92 | 65% | 40 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.85 | 71% | 22 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 22.5 | $1.93 | 52% | 23 ✗ |
| Finn O'Sullivan ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 65% | 13 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens | 20.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 16 ✓ |
| George Wardlaw | 19.5 | $1.94 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Luke McDonald | 16.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 16 ✓ |
| Cooper Harvey ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 90% | 19 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Richmond 1146 · North Melbourne 1368 · ELO difference: 222 in favour of North Melbourne

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Richmond | North Melbourne | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1253 (best 1475) | 1366 (best 1475) | North Melbourne +113 |
| Forwards | 1081 (best 1491) | 1082 (best 1525) | Even |
| Defence | 1111 (best 1589) | 1096 (best 1286) | Richmond +15 |
| Ruck | 1084 (best 1185) | 1450 (best 1600) | North Melbourne +366 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | North Melbourne |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | North Melbourne |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | North Melbourne |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | — |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | North Melbourne |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — North Melbourne predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 191 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-21 05:57 UTC (latest tip update)