# Collingwood v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 78 – 52 Port Adelaide

_Collingwood roar back to stun Port Adelaide._

Half time: 42 – 43 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 52% / Port Adelaide 48% · MCG · Sat, 20 June, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Lachie Schultz (6' ×2 1st), Jordan de Goey (46' ×3), Nick Daicos (54'), Daniel McStay (57' Tipped ⚡), Tim Membrey (64' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Swadling (82') · Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (11' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Bamert (15'), Ewan Mackinlay (36'), Jack Whitlock (43' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 52% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 15 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 June 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 10:42 pm_

Collingwood 78–52 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 15 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Port Adelaide winning this by 2.3 points, with the two sides combining for 166. Neither part of that held up. Collingwood won by 26, and the game finished on 130, some 36 points shy of the total the model was banking on. Credit where it's due though: the win itself was called correctly, with Collingwood given the nod at 52% probability.

For a half, the prediction looked closer to the mark than the final scoreline suggests. Port Adelaide led 17-14 at quarter time and were still up 43-42 at the main break. A one-point game with 62 minutes gone. Then Collingwood put on 32 points to Port's 3 in the third term, turning a one-point deficit into a 28-point lead by the three-quarter time siren, 74-46. The last quarter was a formality after that, Port managing only 6 more to Collingwood's 4.

The disposal count tells you where the game was actually decided. Collingwood finished with 388 to Port's 346, and did far more with it, hitting targets at 76.5% against Port's 69.4%. Port had joined the arm wrestle everywhere else, contested possession 111 to 107, clearances locked at 31 apiece, inside 50s 51 to 46. But repeated entries mean nothing if you can't hold the ball on the way in, and Port's efficiency let them down when it mattered most.

Ruck was meant to be a Collingwood strength coming in, rated 1328 against Port's 1171. On the day it went the other way entirely, Port winning hit-outs 37 to 13. That it barely mattered says plenty about how the rest of the game was won. Collingwood's edge showed up instead inside their forward 50, where marks split 15 to 11 in their favour, evidence they made better use of the ball once it got there even as Port camped inside the arc more often.

Collingwood's rated strengths in defence, 1112 to Port's 1002, and forward line, 1155 to 1114, both showed up when the scoreboard opened up. Port's one clear advantage, the midfield rating at 1202 to 1075, got them parity in clearances and territory, but never translated into scoreboard pressure once Collingwood found their radar.

Both sides came in with similar form, a 1-4 record from their last five apiece and near-identical output across disposals, inside 50s, tackles and clearances. Nothing in that lead-up hinted at a third-quarter avalanche from either camp.

Alphr's model went 1/4 on this one. Right about who'd win, wrong about by how much, and wrong about how many points would be on the board. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 14 | 28 | 32 | 4 | 78 |
| Port Adelaide | 17 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 52 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **388** | Disposals | 346 |
| 107 | Contested poss. | **111** |
| 31 | Clearances | 31 |
| 46 | Inside 50s | **51** |
| 104 | Marks | **110** |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 38 | Tackles | **44** |
| 13 | Hit-outs | **37** |
| 60 | Intercepts | **61** |
| **76.5%** | Disposal eff. | 69.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.3 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 130 points came in 36 points lower than the predicted 166. Collingwood trailed 42–43 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 78–52. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.47 (edge -16.4%) — model probability 51.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +14.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 2 · Predicted total: 166

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Collingwood and Port Adelaide. The model can't split them, landing on Collingwood at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Collingwood sit 142 ELO points clear, 1486 to 1344.

Collingwood own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. The margin model has Port Adelaide by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 166. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Collingwood | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 80.6pts | Avg Score | 74.0pts |
| 93.0pts | Avg Conceded | 85.6pts |
| -12.4pts | Avg Margin | -11.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 L · R13 L | 80.6 |
| Port Adelaide | R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R13 W · R14 L | 74.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 111 · 108 | 96 · 105 |
| Goal Assists | 4.8/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.5/g | 17.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.3/g | 9.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.1% | 67% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 39 · 35 | 44 · 35 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 130/g | 149/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.1/g | 24.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.9% | 68.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 3 · 6 | 12 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 103/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.4/g | 8.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.8% | 78.9% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.24/g (lg 1.11) +12% · Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.51) +8% · Key Forwards 3.84/g (lg 3.84) +0%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.57/g (lg 0.51) +12% · Defenders 1.1/g (lg 1.11) -1% · Midfielders 2.36/g (lg 2.49) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 22 in 13g | 19/10g (4·1·2·2·1·3·1·2·1·2) | 11/12g | 56/47g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 14 in 12g | 12/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·2·3·1·2) | 4/5g | 42/67g | 64% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 13 in 13g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·2·0) | 6/6g | 44/39g | 68% | — | 🏉 6' 90' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 12 in 12g | 9/10g (0·1·0·3·2·0·0·0·1·2) | 11/13g | 131/121g | 56% | — | 🏉 46' 50' 93' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 12 in 9g | 14/10g (2·0·1·4·1·1·2·0·3·0) | 15/11g | 60/35g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' 69' |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 11 in 13g | 8/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 8/11g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 7 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/6g | 46/64g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 5 in 6g | 11/10g (1·1·1·3·0·0·1·2·0·2) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 8/9g | 32/66g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 53/162g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/29g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 12/17g | 107/188g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/38g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 39/78g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 31/95g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/36g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/36g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Harrison | FWD | 0 in 2g | 9/10g (3·0·3·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 9/10g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/84g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 56/169g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Swadling | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 82' |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 30 in 13g | 22/10g (2·2·2·4·3·4·1·1·1·2) | 5/6g | 12/8g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 20 in 13g | 14/10g (1·2·1·2·2·1·1·1·1·2) | 1/4g | 12/24g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 19 in 13g | 15/10g (2·2·2·1·0·0·0·3·3·2) | 3/4g | 8/8g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 13 in 13g | 8/10g (2·0·2·0·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.74 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' 55' |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 10 in 13g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·2·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/7g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 1/3g | 2/4g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 6 in 4g | 13/10g (0·3·0·2·0·2·3·1·2·0) | 3/7g | 6/7g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.75 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 29% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 7/20g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 12/12g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 12/8g | 17/12g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cochrane | FWD | 2 in 2g | 4/5g (0·1·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 80% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/14g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/17g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 14/26g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Ramm | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 33.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 41 ✗ |
| Jordan De Goey ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 82% | 26 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 30 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 21.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 17 ✓ |
| Dan Houston | 20.5 | $1.94 | 51% | 19 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 19.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 21 ✗ |
| Darcy Cameron ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 11 ✓ |
| Jeremy Howe | 17.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 24 ✗ |
| Harry Perryman | 17.5 | $1.89 | 53% | 13 ✓ |
| Isaac Quaynor ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 21 ✗ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 20 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | 30.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 25 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 23 ✓ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 66% | 34 ✗ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 21.5 | $1.90 | 41% | 30 ✗ |
| Joe Richards ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 81% | 16 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 19.5 | $1.78 | 52% | 27 ✗ |
| Logan Evans ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.91 | 68% | 21 ✗ |
| Jordon Sweet ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.88 | 75% | 20 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Collingwood 1486 · Port Adelaide 1344 · ELO difference: 142 in favour of Collingwood

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Collingwood | Port Adelaide | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1075 (best 1258) | 1202 (best 1563) | Port Adelaide +127 |
| Forwards | 1155 (best 1436) | 1114 (best 1462) | Collingwood +41 |
| Defence | 1112 (best 1230) | 1002 (best 1195) | Collingwood +110 |
| Ruck | 1328 (best 1328) | 1171 (best 1171) | Collingwood +157 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Collingwood |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Collingwood |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Collingwood |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Collingwood |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Collingwood predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 166 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r15-collingwood-v-port-adelaide
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-20 12:42 UTC (latest tip update)