# Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 64 – 121 Adelaide Crows

_Adelaide Crows swoop on Western Bulldogs._

Half time: 35 – 75 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 48% / Adelaide Crows 52% · Marvel Stadium · Thu, 11 June, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Arthur Jones (16'), Joel Freijah (34'), Cooper Hynes (42'), Ed Richards (44'), Rhylee West (69'), Aaron Naughton (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Cody Weightman (85' Tipped ⚡) · Adelaide Crows: Riley Thilthorpe (8' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Jordan Dawson (10' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Josh Rachele (18' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Luke Pedlar (22' ×2), Darcy Fogarty (40' Tipped ⚡), Ben Keays (63' Tipped ⚡), Zac Taylor (71' ×2), Toby Murray (97'), Brayden Cook (68'), Wayne Milera (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 52% | Won |
| Western Bulldogs | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.6 predicted → 57 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 June 2026, 06:57 pm · Last updated: 11 June 2026, 10:37 pm_

Western Bulldogs 64–121 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 14 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows by 0.6 points, said the model. Adelaide Crows by 57, said the scoreboard. That's the gap between a correct pick and an accurate one, and this game sat right on the fault line between them.

Final score: Western Bulldogs 64, Adelaide Crows 121, at Marvel Stadium. The win probability call was fine, Adelaide were rated 52% favourites and got the job done. The margin model wasn't in the same postcode. It had this as a squeaker worth 140 combined points. Instead it produced 185, forty-six more than tipped, and one side spent the whole day getting run off its feet.

The scoreboard tells you it wasn't close from the first break. Adelaide led 56–15 at quarter time and never looked like being reeled in, going to 75–35 at the half and 100–55 at three-quarter time before finishing it off 121–64. A 57-point win built early and defended for three quarters is not a fadeaway, it's a procession.

Go back to the positional ratings and it starts to make sense why. Adelaide's defence was rated 1357 to the Bulldogs' 1051, the biggest gap on the sheet, and it showed up everywhere Adelaide touched the ball. They finished with 74 intercepts to 64 and out-marked the Bulldogs 114 to 72. Inside their own forward 50 it was worse for the Dogs again, 13 marks to 3, which is about as clean an efficiency story as you'll see in a losing scoreline.

The one place the read actually held up was the midfield battle, and it still didn't matter. The Bulldogs won clearances 40–33 and were rated the stronger midfield unit going in, 1167 to 1085. But Adelaide's ruck edge, 1495 to a modest 1023 on paper yet somehow the Crows won hit-outs 54–30 on the day, fed their own midfielders enough clean ball to make the clearance count irrelevant. Adelaide finished with 431 disposals to 339 and moved it at 78.9% efficiency to the Bulldogs' 69.9%. Winning the count at the coalface doesn't help if the other side is that much cleaner with what they've got.

Form lines said this should have been tighter than it was. Both sides had won four of their last five. But Adelaide's average margin coming in was plus-19.6, the Bulldogs' was plus-0.6, and their season-average scores split 89.6 to 80.6. That gap between a side built to win comfortably and one that scrapes wins by a point turned into a 57-point margin when the sides actually met.

So the model's three correct calls, the winner, the covered line, and the margin band, stack up against the one clean miss, a margin projection that undercooked this by 56 points. Adelaide's defence and marking dominance simply weren't in the numbers the model saw pre-match. The Bulldogs won the fight in the middle and lost everything that mattered around it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 15 | 20 | 20 | 9 | 64 |
| Adelaide Crows | 56 | 19 | 25 | 21 | 121 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 339 | Disposals | **431** |
| 132 | Contested poss. | **155** |
| **40** | Clearances | 33 |
| **52** | Inside 50s | 50 |
| 72 | Marks | **114** |
| 3 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| 60 | Tackles | **75** |
| 30 | Hit-outs | **54** |
| 64 | Intercepts | **74** |
| 69.9% | Disposal eff. | **78.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.6 but the actual margin was 57 points. The game's 185 points came in 46 points higher than the predicted 140. Adelaide Crows led 35–75 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 57. The model went 3/4 on this match. Adelaide Crows covered the 4.5-point line. The Draw margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $2.10 (edge +4.7%) — model probability 52.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +4.5 @ $1.89 (edge +5.1%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows Draw @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 1 · Predicted total: 140

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Western Bulldogs and Adelaide Crows. The model can't split them, landing on Adelaide Crows at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Adelaide Crows sit 56 ELO points clear, 1631 to 1576.

Adelaide Crows own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 80.6pts | Avg Score | 89.6pts |
| 80.0pts | Avg Conceded | 70.0pts |
| 0.6pts | Avg Margin | 19.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | R9 W · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W | 80.6 |
| Adelaide Crows | R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R13 W | 89.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Adelaide Crows lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | QE | Adelaide Crows | 90 – 68 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2026 | R2 | Adelaide Crows | 88 – 94 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R18 | Western Bulldogs | 98 – 109 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R22 | Adelaide Crows | 111 – 72 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R10 | Western Bulldogs | 85 – 40 | Adelaide Crows |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 99 · 115 | 99 · 97 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 6/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.3/g | 20.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.2/g | 8.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.1% | 66.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 43 · 41 | 50 · 30 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 139/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.8/g | 22.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.9/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.2% | 70.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 11 | 5 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.3/g | 9.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.1% | 81.1% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.13) +6% · Forwards 4.38/g (lg 4.46) -2% · Midfielders 2.23/g (lg 2.48) -10%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.51) +8% · Key Forwards 4/g (lg 3.83) +4% · Midfielders 2.48/g (lg 2.48) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 30 in 13g | 19/10g (3·1·3·1·2·2·3·2·1·1) | 19/8g | 157/85g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' 80' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 19 in 13g | 12/10g (1·0·0·2·2·1·1·2·1·2) | 12/13g | 162/141g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 11 in 13g | 10/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·2·2·1·1) | 2/6g | 55/49g | 70% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 10 in 12g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·3·2·0) | 3/8g | 38/76g | 60% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Arthur Jones | FWD | 9 in 8g | 11/10g (0·2·0·3·1·1·0·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 11/14g | 50% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Jordan Croft | KF | 8 in 8g | 12/10g (2·2·0·1·0·1·2·1·0·3) | 1/1g | 5/5g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 6 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/2g | 10/27g | 38% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 4/7g | 48/77g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/10g | 38% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/38g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Adam Treloar | FWD | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 7/12g | 46/67g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 33/55g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 10/27g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/11g | 50/97g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 11/28g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Cody Weightman | FWD | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (3·1·1·0·2·0·2·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 65/33g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 85' |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/32g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Luke Kennedy | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Michael Sellwood | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Coffield | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/29g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/13g | 35/51g | 4% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 18 in 12g | 15/10g (1·1·4·1·0·2·2·3·1·0) | 6/4g | 9/5g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 20' 89' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 15 in 12g | 14/10g (0·0·3·2·1·3·1·2·0·2) | 5/8g | 24/18g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (3·2·1·1·1·3·1·1·1·0) | 10/3g | 14/7g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 15' 29' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 12 in 9g | 12/10g (0·0·1·2·1·2·1·1·1·3) | 8/8g | 13/17g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 12' 25' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 9/15g | 12/22g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 7 in 6g | 11/10g (2·1·0·1·2·2·0·2·1·0) | 12/7g | 20/10g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/5g | 42% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/2g | 62% | — | 🏉 22' 45' |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 2/3g | 30% | — | 🏉 71' 89' |
| – | Toby Murray | RUC | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (0·0·2·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | 🏉 97' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/7g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 2/10g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Hall-Kahan | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Borlase | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 4/28g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/9g | 4% | — | 🏉 70' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale | 26.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 21 ✓ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 26.5 | $1.91 | 59% | 29 ✗ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 68% | 28 ✗ |
| Ryley Sanders | 25.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 19 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 23.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 29 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah | 18.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 15 ✓ |
| Connor Budarick | 18.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 20 ✗ |
| Tim English | 16.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 11 ✓ |
| Adam Treloar | 16.5 | $1.90 | 32% | 10 ✓ |
| Lachlan Bramble | 15.5 | $1.89 | 56% | 21 ✗ |
| Nick Coffield ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.92 | 62% | 20 ✗ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 24 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson | 25.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 32 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell | 24.5 | $1.83 | 64% | 20 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 24.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 35 ✗ |
| James Peatling | 20.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 24 ✗ |
| Sam Berry | 20.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 29 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 67% | 21 ✗ |
| Daniel Curtin ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 14 ✓ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | 16.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 14 ✓ |
| Josh Rachele | 16.5 | $2.00 | 47% | 16 ✓ |
| Brayden Cook | 16.5 | $1.89 | 47% | 19 ✗ |
| Ben Keays | 15.5 | $1.91 | 47% | 23 ✗ |
| Riley Thilthorpe | 13.5 | $1.92 | 53% | 14 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Adelaide Crows hold the ELO advantage (1631 vs 1576), but the market favours Western Bulldogs (@1.91). The model sides with ELO, Adelaide Crows predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Western Bulldogs 1576 · Adelaide Crows 1631 · ELO difference: 55 in favour of Adelaide Crows

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Western Bulldogs | Adelaide Crows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1167 (best 1213) | 1085 (best 1313) | Western Bulldogs +82 |
| Forwards | 1189 (best 1541) | 1050 (best 1396) | Western Bulldogs +138 |
| Defence | 1051 (best 1158) | 1357 (best 1538) | Adelaide Crows +305 |
| Ruck | 1495 (best 1495) | 1023 (best 1056) | Western Bulldogs +473 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Western Bulldogs |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Western Bulldogs |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Adelaide Crows |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 140 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-11 12:37 UTC (latest tip update)