# St Kilda v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 96 – 88 GWS GIANTS

_St Kilda survive a scare against GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 52 – 51 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 41% / GWS GIANTS 59% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 14 June, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Tom De Koning (12'), Cooper Sharman (16' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Dan Butler (23'), Liam Ryan (40' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Max Hall (47'), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (77') · GWS GIANTS: Phoenix Gothard (6' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Jake Stringer (8' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Aaron Cadman (9' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Toby Bedford (21'), Toby Greene (35' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jesse Hogan (83' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 59% | Lost |
| St Kilda | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.8 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda vs GWS GIANTS Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 June 2026, 07:32 pm · Last updated: 14 June 2026, 06:11 pm_

St Kilda 96–88 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 14 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda led at every change and still had to sweat on it. Quarter time it was 27-25. Half time 52-51. Three-quarter time 70-62. Full time 96-88. That's a lead that never disappeared but took most of the night to feel safe.

The turning point was the third quarter. St Kilda went from a one-point break at the half to an eight-point buffer at the last change, outscoring GWS 18-11 in that stanza. From there it was about defending the margin rather than building it, and the final quarter played out as an even shootout, 26 points apiece, gap unchanged.

Look at the stat sheet and you'd think GWS should have run away with it. They won the footy 386 disposals to 352, the clearances 46-36, the hitouts 44-29, and pushed forward 55 times to St Kilda's 45. That's a side dominating the base numbers and losing the game.

St Kilda's answer was in the areas that actually stop the ball hitting the scoreboard. Sixty-four tackles to 45 meant GWS paid a price every time they won it. Sixty intercepts to 52 meant St Kilda kept turning that extra possession back the other way. And when St Kilda did go forward, they made it count, 16 marks inside 50 to GWS's 12, the cleaner side in the one zone that matters most.

Pre-match, the ratings had GWS on top in midfield, 1233 to 1136, and defence, 1218 to 1125. The clearance and inside-50 numbers back that midfield edge up completely. But St Kilda

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 27 | 25 | 18 | 26 | 96 |
| GWS GIANTS | 25 | 26 | 11 | 26 | 88 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 352 | Disposals | **386** |
| 125 | Contested poss. | **128** |
| 36 | Clearances | **46** |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| 87 | Marks | **95** |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| **64** | Tackles | 45 |
| 29 | Hit-outs | **44** |
| **60** | Intercepts | 52 |
| 73.9% | Disposal eff. | **75.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

St Kilda defied the model's 59% prediction for GWS GIANTS, a notable result. The predicted margin of 2.8 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 183 was close to the actual 184, within 1 points. St Kilda led 52–51 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 8. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 185.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $2.10 (edge +11.8%) — model probability 59.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 3 · Predicted total: 183

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

GWS GIANTS are the call at 59%, but St Kilda stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: GWS GIANTS sit 215 ELO points clear, 1639 to 1425. Form leans GWS GIANTS's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for St Kilda.

GWS GIANTS own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has GWS GIANTS by 2.8, with the two sides combining for about 183. Lean GWS GIANTS, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Kilda | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 82.4pts | Avg Score | 104.4pts |
| 97.8pts | Avg Conceded | 83.6pts |
| -15.4pts | Avg Margin | 20.8pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | R9 L · R10 W · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L | 82.4 |
| GWS GIANTS | R8 L · R9 W · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W | 104.4 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 110 · 122 | 137 · 107 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 5.4/g |
| Disposals | 94/g | 120/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.1/g | 23.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.9/g | 10/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.3% | 65.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 40 · 34 | 25 · 38 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 150/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.6/g | 19.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.9/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.1% | 70.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 20 · 11 | 3 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 1.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 147/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.7/g | 11.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.6% | 80.9% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.12) +7% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0% · Key Forwards 3.74/g (lg 3.83) -2%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.68/g (lg 2.48) +8% · Key Forwards 4.03/g (lg 3.83) +5% · Forwards 4.2/g (lg 4.45) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 16 in 8g | 16/10g (0·0·1·1·1·3·1·1·3·5) | 3/6g | 28/17g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' 45' 70' 78' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 16 in 10g | 16/10g (2·2·1·2·2·2·0·3·1·1) | 4/5g | 55/46g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 15 in 13g | 13/10g (3·1·1·2·2·0·2·0·0·2) | 7/5g | 58/44g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 18' 69' 84' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 15 in 13g | 9/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·2·2·0·1) | 4/3g | 15/18g | 65% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 12 in 12g | 11/10g (1·0·0·2·0·4·1·1·1·1) | 7/4g | 18/26g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 9 in 13g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·2·0·2·2) | 6/10g | 17/36g | 34% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 8 in 9g | 8/10g (0·1·3·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 4/7g | 13/53g | 44% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 7/15g | 22/88g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 4/10g | 86/85g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/10g | 53/84g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/20g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 3/8g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 6/7g | 32/44g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 25/35g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 6/9g | 69/64g | 50% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 10/45g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 7/16g | 40/114g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/83g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/21g | 28/138g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/46g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/45g | 12% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 24 in 12g | 19/10g (1·2·1·0·3·1·3·2·5·1) | 32/15g | 178/89g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 43' 69' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 17 in 12g | 16/10g (0·1·1·0·2·1·3·0·5·3) | 27/18g | 41/32g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 73' |
| – | Phoenix Gothard | FWD | 15 in 12g | 14/10g (2·1·1·2·1·2·2·0·2·1) | 2/1g | 1/2g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 54' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 14 in 7g | 16/10g (2·0·0·4·3·2·1·0·3·1) | 4/4g | 6/5g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 56' 68' 80' |
| – | Brent Daniels | FWD | 10 in 7g | 10/10g (0·0·0·3·1·0·2·2·2·0) | 6/6g | 6/8g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 10 in 7g | 15/10g (2·0·3·3·0·2·0·2·2·1) | 33/13g | 55/24g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 83' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 8 in 8g | 11/10g (1·2·2·1·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 4/6g | 5/8g | 58% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·3) | 3/5g | 6/9g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/7g | 2/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 4/4g | 1/6g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 4/21g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 11/12g | 13/23g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 3/12g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Conor Stone | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 12/57g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/17g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 9/30g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/14g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 21% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 22 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 27.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 32 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.94 | 66% | 21 ✓ |
| Max Hall ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 82% | 19 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill | 21.5 | $1.92 | 50% | 16 ✓ |
| Hugo Garcia | 20.5 | $1.94 | 54% | 27 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson | 20.5 | $1.94 | 61% | 20 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 20.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 21 ✗ |
| Jack Macrae | 19.5 | $1.73 | 58% | 24 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall | 16.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 8 ✓ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield | 30.5 | $1.83 | 64% | 31 ✗ |
| Clayton Oliver | 30.5 | $1.88 | 47% | 35 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 32 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan | 27.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 28 ✗ |
| Connor Idun | 21.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 20 ✓ |
| Harvey Thomas ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 18 ✓ |
| Brent Daniels ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 31 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg | 17.5 | $1.81 | 62% | 13 ✓ |
| Joe Fonti | 17.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 27 ✗ |
| Jayden Laverde | 16.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 9 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** GWS GIANTS hold the ELO advantage (1639 vs 1425), but the market favours St Kilda (@1.91). The model sides with ELO, GWS GIANTS predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Kilda 1425 · GWS GIANTS 1639 · ELO difference: 215 in favour of GWS GIANTS

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | St Kilda | GWS GIANTS | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1136 (best 1225) | 1233 (best 1474) | GWS GIANTS +96 |
| Forwards | 1092 (best 1493) | 1029 (best 1276) | St Kilda +64 |
| Defence | 1125 (best 1418) | 1218 (best 1600) | GWS GIANTS +94 |
| Ruck | 1433 (best 1457) | 1370 (best 1370) | St Kilda +63 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | St Kilda |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | GWS GIANTS |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 183 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-14 08:11 UTC (latest tip update)