# Richmond v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 80 – 115 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions roar past Richmond._

Half time: 39 – 42 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 29% / Brisbane Lions 71% · Ninja Stadium · Sun, 14 June, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Jasper Alger (6' ×3), Tim Taranto (14' ×2), Liam Fawcett (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tyler Sonsie (69'), James Trezise (81'), Steely Green (67' Tipped ⚡), Sam Cumming (87') · Brisbane Lions: Lachie Neale (2' 1st), Zac Bailey (16' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Logan Morris (22' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Bruce Reville (28'), Josh Dunkley (59'), Charlie Cameron (63' Tipped ⚡), Will Ashcroft (65' ×2), Eric Hipwood (75' ×2), Darcy Fort (78'), Conor McKenna (73'), Kai Lohmann (84' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 71% | Won |
| Richmond | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.2 predicted → 35 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond vs Brisbane Lions Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 June 2026, 07:32 pm · Last updated: 14 June 2026, 03:58 pm_

Richmond 80–115 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 14 at Ninja Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions beat Richmond 115-80 at Ninja Stadium. Thirty-five points is a hiding by any measure, but the ladder doesn't tell you this one was level at the main break.

Half time had it at 39-42. A three-point game, Richmond's for the taking if they'd found another gear. They didn't get the chance to enjoy it long. The third quarter is where this match actually happened: Brisbane put on 46 points to Richmond's 19, turning a contest into a procession and taking a 30-point buffer into the final change. Richmond matched them roughly stride for stride in the last quarter, 22 to 27, but by then it was just mopping up.

The clearance count explains a lot of that third-quarter surge. Brisbane won it 42-32, and their disposal count, 381 to 339, backs up a side that simply had more of the footy for longer stretches. Marks tell the same story in bulk: 111 to 83, a gap that points to a team controlling territory and using it. Richmond's ruck rating going in was 1001 against Brisbane's 1306, about as lopsided as these positional numbers get, and the hit-out count, 44 to 40, and the broader mark disparity suggest that gap showed up exactly where you'd expect.

Not everything went Brisbane's way, mind. Richmond were the more accurate side inside forward 50, landing 16 marks there to Brisbane's 11, and they edged the tackle count 54-52 and disposal efficiency 74.6 to 73.2. Cleaner going forward, harder at the ball when it mattered in close. Just not enough of it, and not in the right patches of the game.

Richmond's form coming in had them averaging 72.6 points a game and conceding 104.2, an average margin of minus-31.6. They finished about eight points shy of that scoring average, a fraction under it, and copped almost exactly their going rate in defence. Brisbane, averaging 89.6 scored and 110 conceded across their last five, blew well past their attacking number and comfortably held their opponent below their concession average. Both sides arrived at 2-2 across the last five. Only one of them left with the form line intact.

Alphr's model had

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 25 | 14 | 19 | 22 | 80 |
| Brisbane Lions | 28 | 14 | 46 | 27 | 115 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 339 | Disposals | **381** |
| 113 | Contested poss. | **131** |
| 32 | Clearances | **42** |
| 51 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| 83 | Marks | **111** |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **54** | Tackles | 52 |
| 40 | Hit-outs | **44** |
| 65 | Intercepts | **67** |
| **74.6%** | Disposal eff. | 73.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.2 but the actual margin was 35 points. Total score prediction of 190 was close to the actual 195, within 6 points. Brisbane Lions led 39–42 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 35. The model went 3/4 on this match. Richmond covered the 45.5-point line. The over 183.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.08 (edge -21.3%) — model probability 71.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +45.5 @ $1.90 (edge +46.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 183.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 1 · Predicted total: 190

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Brisbane Lions here: 71% to see off Richmond. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Brisbane Lions sit 420 ELO points clear, 1576 to 1156.

Brisbane Lions own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has Richmond by 1.2, with the two sides combining for about 190. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Brisbane Lions to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Richmond | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 72.6pts | Avg Score | 89.6pts |
| 104.2pts | Avg Conceded | 110.0pts |
| -31.6pts | Avg Margin | -20.4pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | R8 W · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 L | 72.6 |
| Brisbane Lions | R9 W · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W | 89.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 85 · 125 | 141 · 136 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 5.5/g |
| Disposals | 84/g | 90/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.2/g | 18.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.5/g | 9.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.2% | 65.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 16 · 57 | 38 · 36 |
| Goal Assists | 2.2/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 112/g | 165/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.8/g | 26.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.4% | 69.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 7 | 10 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.4/g | 12.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80% | 80.1% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Key Forwards 3.78/g (lg 3.83) -1% · Forwards 4.37/g (lg 4.45) -2% · Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.51) -6%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Rucks 0.67/g (lg 0.51) +31% · Key Forwards 4.97/g (lg 3.83) +30% · Midfielders 3.07/g (lg 2.48) +24%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ninja Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 12 in 12g | 9/10g (0·0·1·2·2·3·1·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 3/1g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 12 in 12g | 10/10g (3·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·2·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 51% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.56 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (1·0·0·4·0·2·1·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Liam Fawcett | KF | 8 in 5g | 9/6g (1·2·3·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 26' |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·3·1·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Cumming | MID | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (1·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/10g | 2/5g | 36% | — | 🏉 14' 51' |
| – | Jasper Alger | FWD | 3 in 3g | 5/7g (0·2·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 6' 47' 68' |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/15g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hayes-Brown | RUC | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 2/5g | 12% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Retschko | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Grlj | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 32 in 12g | 27/10g (3·0·3·2·4·4·2·1·1·7) | 4/2g | 0/1g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 86' 76' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 29 in 13g | 21/10g (0·1·3·4·2·2·3·2·2·2) | 31/16g | 7/4g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 63' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 21 in 13g | 16/10g (4·1·1·1·4·2·0·3·0·0) | 5/1g | 0/1g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 84' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 16 in 12g | 13/10g (2·2·0·3·4·0·1·0·1·0) | 13/11g | 2/2g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 70' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 14 in 13g | 10/10g (0·1·2·1·2·0·1·3·0·0) | 7/9g | 3/1g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 8 in 7g | 10/10g (1·1·0·2·2·0·1·2·0·1) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 8 in 12g | 8/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 36% | — | 🏉 65' 66' |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/19g | 1/2g | 26% | — | 🏉 2' |
| – | James Tunstill | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 24/14g | 4/2g | 62% | — | 🏉 75' 65' |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Shadeau Brain | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | 23.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Tim Taranto | 23.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 29 ✗ |
| Jacob Hopper | 21.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 17 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia | 20.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 27 ✗ |
| Sam Banks | 17.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 22 ✗ |
| Seth Campbell ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.90 | 76% | 14 ✓ |
| Sam Grlj | 15.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 16 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 15.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 15 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 31.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 28 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 27.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 38 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 26 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.92 | 70% | 25 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 20.5 | $1.93 | 46% | 22 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 20.5 | $1.93 | 47% | 17 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 20.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 14 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 18.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 21 ✗ |
| Bruce Reville | 15.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 12 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Richmond 1156 · Brisbane Lions 1576 · ELO difference: 420 in favour of Brisbane Lions

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Richmond | Brisbane Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1243 (best 1475) | 1137 (best 1430) | Richmond +105 |
| Forwards | 1079 (best 1491) | 1113 (best 1600) | Brisbane Lions +34 |
| Defence | 1111 (best 1589) | 1214 (best 1463) | Brisbane Lions +102 |
| Ruck | 1001 (best 1004) | 1306 (best 1323) | Brisbane Lions +304 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Richmond |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Brisbane Lions |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 190 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-14 05:58 UTC (latest tip update)