# Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 90 – 93 Sydney Swans

_Sydney Swans fight back to ruffle the feathers of Port Adelaide._

Half time: 51 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 37% / Sydney Swans 63% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 13 June, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Corey Durdin (18' ×2), Jordon Sweet (19' ×2), Jason Horne-Francis (24' ×2), Mitch Georgiades (36' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Cochrane (42'), Joe Richards (45'), Joe Berry (50'), Xavier Bamert (66'), Zak Butters (81') · Sydney Swans: Charlie Curnow (4' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Jake Lloyd (15' ×2), Malcolm Rosas (29' Tipped ⚡), Joel Amartey (48' Tipped ⚡), Logan McDonald (51' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Riley Bice (73'), Isaac Heeney (76' Tipped ⚡), Chad Warner (66' Tipped ⚡), James Rowbottom (87')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 63% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.3 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide vs Sydney Swans Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 June 2026, 07:32 pm · Last updated: 13 June 2026, 10:32 pm_

Port Adelaide 90–93 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 14 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Sydney Swans winning by 4.3 points with a combined total of 179. The final read: Sydney Swans by 3, 93-90, with 183 points on the board. Close enough to call it sharp, but the path there was nothing like a straight line.

Port Adelaide led at every change until it mattered least. Quarter time had them up 24-20, half time 51-36, three-quarter time 71-62. Nine points clear at the last break, Port Adelaide looked set to hand the model its one blemish for the day.

Then the final quarter happened. Sydney Swans scored 31 points to Port Adelaide's 19 in the last term, a reversal big enough to erase a nine-point deficit and still have three points to spare. Whatever the model saw coming at 63% probability, it arrived in the only quarter that counted.

The stat sheet tells a stranger story than the scoreline suggests. Port Adelaide won clearances 39-30, hit-outs 40-27, inside 50s 54-47 and marks inside 50 11-8. On paper that's a team controlling entries and first use of the ball. But Sydney Swans had the higher disposal count, 356 to 329, more tackles, 62 to 53, and edged the intercept count 71-70. Territory without efficient finishing only gets you so far, and 54 inside 50s producing 90 points is proof of that. Disposal efficiency was near identical, 71.1% for Port Adelaide against 70.2% for Sydney Swans, so it wasn't a case of one side simply fumbling the footy more.

The pre-match ratings flagged exactly where this would be decided. Sydney Swans came in stronger in defence, 1253 to 1057, and stronger in the ruck, 1226 to 1171, with the midfield edge also in their favour, 1221 to 1207. Port Adelaide's one clear advantage was forward structure, 1128 to 1017, and that showed up in the inside 50 and marks inside 50 counts. But a defence rated that much higher was always going to find a way to hold firm when it mattered, and it did.

Form lines pointed the same direction before a ball was bounced. Sydney Swans arrived on the back of four wins from their last five, averaging 108 points a game with an average winning margin of 20.6. Port Adelaide had managed just one win in five, averaging 71 points and losing by an average of 11.2. Port Adelaide's LLLLW form against Sydney Swans' WWLWW made this result look less like an upset and more like the formbook finally reasserting itself after three quarters of noise.

Add it up and Alphr's model went four from four on this one: the winner, the underlying probability, the margin within 1.3 points, and the total within 4. Port Adelaide will look at the hit-out count, the clearance count and the inside 50 differential and wonder how a game that lopsided in field position still slipped away. The answer sits in the last term, and in a pre-match rating that had Sydney Swans' defence and ruck good enough to weather exactly that kind of scare.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 24 | 27 | 20 | 19 | 90 |
| Sydney Swans | 20 | 16 | 26 | 31 | 93 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 329 | Disposals | **356** |
| 130 | Contested poss. | **136** |
| **39** | Clearances | 30 |
| **54** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| **79** | Marks | 72 |
| **11** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| 53 | Tackles | **62** |
| **40** | Hit-outs | 27 |
| 70 | Intercepts | **71** |
| **71.1%** | Disposal eff. | 70.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sydney Swans by 4.3 vs the actual margin of 3 points. Total score prediction of 179 was close to the actual 183, within 4 points. Sydney Swans trailed 51–36 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 90–93. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.44 (edge -6.3%) — model probability 63.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +14.5 @ $1.89 (edge +10.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 4 · Predicted total: 179

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sydney Swans are the call at 63%, but Port Adelaide stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sydney Swans sit 427 ELO points clear, 1776 to 1349. Form leans Sydney Swans' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Port Adelaide.

Sydney Swans own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. The margin model has Sydney Swans by 4.3, with the two sides combining for about 179. Lean Sydney Swans, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 71.0pts | Avg Score | 108.0pts |
| 82.2pts | Avg Conceded | 87.4pts |
| -11.2pts | Avg Margin | 20.6pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R13 W | 71.0 |
| Sydney Swans | R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R12 W · R13 W | 108.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 89 · 94 | 136 · 92 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 4.7/g |
| Disposals | 96/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.9/g | 20.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 11.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.4% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 39 · 33 | 75 · 38 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 150/g | 156/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.8/g | 28.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.6/g | 3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.4% | 69.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 11 | 8 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposals | 103/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 7.8/g | 14.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.1% | 79.5% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.66/g (lg 0.51) +29% · Midfielders 2.34/g (lg 2.48) -6% · Forwards 4.11/g (lg 4.45) -8%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.12) +12% · Rucks 0.56/g (lg 0.51) +10% · Key Forwards 3.79/g (lg 3.83) -1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 28 in 12g | 23/10g (3·2·2·2·4·3·4·1·1·1) | 9/6g | 117/58g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' 79' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 18 in 12g | 14/10g (2·1·2·1·2·2·1·1·1·1) | 3/4g | 20/13g | 70% | — | 🏉 18' 78' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 17 in 12g | 14/10g (1·2·2·2·1·0·0·0·3·3) | 3/7g | 46/45g | 70% | — | 🏉 24' 83' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 13 in 12g | 11/10g (3·2·0·2·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 8/9g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 9 in 12g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·2·0·2) | 0/0g | 7/14g | 35% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 7 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0) | 1/2g | 14/20g | 42% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 6/28g | 32% | — | 🏉 19' 90' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 47/127g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/36g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 32/83g | 18% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 25/69g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/48g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 55/141g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 12/6g | 87/66g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 11/80g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/19g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cochrane | FWD | 1 in 1g | 3/4g (0·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 75% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/72g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 2/30g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Ramm | DEF | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/36g | 12% | — | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 33 in 12g | 30/10g (2·4·0·3·7·1·1·2·8·2) | 18/9g | 14/10g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 71' 64' |
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 27 in 13g | 18/10g (2·0·2·3·4·1·0·4·1·1) | 3/4g | 11/5g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 22 in 11g | 20/10g (2·4·2·0·0·3·1·1·5·2) | 17/11g | 26/13g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | 22 in 13g | 16/10g (0·1·2·0·3·3·2·2·2·1) | 4/4g | 3/5g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' 63' 75' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 17 in 13g | 15/10g (2·2·1·3·0·1·1·0·3·2) | 4/6g | 2/7g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.43 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| – | Malcolm Rosas | FWD | 15 in 11g | 14/10g (1·1·2·1·0·7·0·0·0·2) | 3/2g | 1/2g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 9 in 3g | 18/10g (3·1·1·0·0·2·2·3·4·2) | 6/5g | 8/7g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/14g | 2/12g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 7 in 13g | 7/10g (3·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 2/14g | 32% | — | 🏉 15' 70' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 1/11g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 3/11g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 7/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 1/11g | 28% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 8% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/11g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Harry Kyle | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | William Edwards | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | 28.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 27 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 22.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 16 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 23 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines | 19.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 23 ✗ |
| Logan Evans ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 67% | 15 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 18.5 | $1.96 | 54% | 17 ✓ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | 18.5 | $1.77 | 53% | 25 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell | 18.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 20 ✗ |
| Joe Richards ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 23 ✗ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.92 | 67% | 30 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 25 ✓ |
| Chad Warner ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.93 | 70% | 26 ✗ |
| Callum Mills | 22.5 | $1.89 | 61% | 29 ✗ |
| Angus Sheldrick ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 69% | 15 ✓ |
| Riley Bice | 19.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 18 ✓ |
| Brodie Grundy | 19.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 26 ✗ |
| Jai Serong | 18.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 19 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 17.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 11 ✓ |
| Sam Wicks | 17.5 | $1.92 | 61% | 19 ✗ |
| Matt Roberts | 17.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 14 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Port Adelaide 1349 · Sydney Swans 1776 · ELO difference: 427 in favour of Sydney Swans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Port Adelaide | Sydney Swans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1207 (best 1563) | 1221 (best 1311) | Sydney Swans +14 |
| Forwards | 1128 (best 1462) | 1017 (best 1205) | Port Adelaide +110 |
| Defence | 1057 (best 1320) | 1253 (best 1534) | Sydney Swans +196 |
| Ruck | 1171 (best 1171) | 1226 (best 1306) | Sydney Swans +56 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Port Adelaide |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Sydney Swans predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 179 pts

**Record:** 4/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-13 12:32 UTC (latest tip update)