# North Melbourne v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 74 – 73 West Coast Eagles

_North Melbourne edge West Coast Eagles in a one-point thriller._

Half time: 38 – 37 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 48% / West Coast Eagles 52% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 13 June, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Jack Darling (4' ×4 1st Tipped ⚡), Nick Larkey (17' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Cooper Trembath (72' Tipped ⚡), Harry Sheezel (74'), Final quarter (28m 4s)Nick Larkey (70') · West Coast Eagles: Liam Baker (20'), Harley Reid (32'), Brady Hough (35'), Jake Waterman (42' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Cole (91'), Jobe Shanahan (98' ×3 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 52% | Lost |
| North Melbourne | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.8 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne vs West Coast Eagles Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 June 2026, 07:32 pm · Last updated: 13 June 2026, 08:02 pm_

North Melbourne 74–73 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 14 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixty-nine tackles to 43. That's the number that won North Melbourne the game, and they needed every one of them, scraping home 74-73 over West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium.

The platform for that pressure came from up the ground. North's ruck division had a field day, 44 hit-outs to 33, and that fed a clearance count of 38 to 34. Give a midfield first use of the ball that often and the forward line eats well: North landed 14 marks inside 50 to West Coast's 10, even though the Eagles actually won the inside-50 count 43 to 39. Quantity mattered less than what North did with it.

The scoreboard tells its own story about how this one moved. West Coast were up 22-17 at quarter time, the only lead they'd hold all day. North Melbourne wrestled it back to lead 38-37 at the main break, then blew it open in the third quarter, outscoring West Coast 27-14 to take a 65-51 buffer into the final change. That should have been that.

It wasn't. West Coast piled on 22 points in the last quarter to North's 9, closing what looked like a done deal down to a single point. It's the kind of final-term surge that turns a comfortable win into a nervous one, and North will know how close they came to watching a 14-point lead evaporate completely.

North's disposal numbers back up the territory story, 304 to 275, with a slightly better efficiency rate too at 73.0% to 72.0%. Marks were even more lopsided, 89 to 70, which lines up with a side that spent long stretches controlling connected football through the middle. Intercepts were close, 50 to 49, so it wasn't a turnover festival either side dominated.

The pre-match numbers had this the other way. Alphr's model gave West Coast a 52% chance and picked them by 1.8 points, with North's rated ruck edge (1450 to 1000) and midfield edge (1366 to 1144) apparently not enough to offset West Coast's stronger defensive rating of 1282 to 1140. On the day, the actual margin came in at 1 point, close enough to the tip that the model's read on this contest holds up better than most, even with the wrong team on top.

The total was the bigger miss, 147 points played out against a forecast of 187, a 40-point undershoot. Form lines going in had flagged North as the shakier side, one win in five

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 17 | 21 | 27 | 9 | 74 |
| West Coast Eagles | 22 | 15 | 14 | 22 | 73 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **304** | Disposals | 275 |
| **116** | Contested poss. | 107 |
| **38** | Clearances | 34 |
| 39 | Inside 50s | **43** |
| **89** | Marks | 70 |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| **69** | Tackles | 43 |
| **44** | Hit-outs | 33 |
| **50** | Intercepts | 49 |
| **73.0%** | Disposal eff. | 72.0% |

**Model Report Card**

North Melbourne defied the model's 52% prediction for West Coast Eagles, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting West Coast Eagles by 1.8 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The game's 147 points came in 40 points lower than the predicted 187. The model went 1/4 on this match. West Coast Eagles covered the 10.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** West Coast Eagles to win @ $2.46 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 52.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +10.5 @ $1.90 (edge +12.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 174.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 2 · Predicted total: 187

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between North Melbourne and West Coast Eagles. The model can't split them, landing on West Coast Eagles at 52%. The ratings say otherwise: North Melbourne sit 160 ELO points clear, 1357 to 1197, so the model is backing West Coast Eagles against the ratings gap. Form leans West Coast Eagles' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for North Melbourne.

On paper North Melbourne shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. The model still sides with West Coast Eagles, which says Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO carry the most weight. The margin model has West Coast Eagles by 1.8, with the two sides combining for about 187. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| North Melbourne | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 78.0pts | Avg Score | 78.6pts |
| 126.6pts | Avg Conceded | 78.8pts |
| -48.6pts | Avg Margin | -0.2pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R13 L | 78.0 |
| West Coast Eagles | R9 L · R10 W · R11 L · R12 W · R13 L | 78.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 115 · 116 | 71 · 128 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposals | 98/g | 72/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.5/g | 11.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9/g | 7.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.7% | 70.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 49 | 44 · 45 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 145/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.5/g | 24.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.2% | 69.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 13 | 9 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.6/g | 12.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.7% | 81% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.71/g (lg 0.51) +39% · Midfielders 3.41/g (lg 2.48) +38% · Forwards 5.44/g (lg 4.46) +22%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.72/g (lg 0.51) +41% · Key Forwards 5.22/g (lg 3.83) +36% · Defenders 1.47/g (lg 1.12) +31%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 26 in 12g | 16/10g (2·2·1·2·4·1·0·1·2·1) | 31/10g | 25/8g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 76' 93' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 22 in 12g | 19/10g (1·2·1·6·2·1·1·3·2·0) | 15/6g | 7/6g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 17 in 12g | 14/10g (2·3·2·3·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 15 in 11g | 14/10g (0·1·1·1·1·3·2·1·3·1) | 0/2g | 148/79g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' 55' 61' 66' |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 15 in 12g | 14/10g (3·3·0·2·0·3·2·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.41 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 8 in 12g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 13/9g | 10/8g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0) | 5/12g | 4/11g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/7g | 9/10g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/5g | 40% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 2/2g | 44% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 4/10g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 2/5g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/6g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/14g | 6/10g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/9g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 1/13g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Harvey | DEF | no games | 11/10g (1·0·0·1·4·2·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/28g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Goad | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 28 in 13g | 20/10g (1·1·1·1·3·3·3·1·3·3) | 7/6g | 108/66g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' 82' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 14 in 13g | 11/10g (0·4·0·1·1·0·1·2·1·1) | 2/1g | 15/12g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 98' 79' 93' |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 12 in 11g | 10/10g (2·1·1·1·1·0·0·3·0·1) | 10/13g | 27/64g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.53 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 10 in 13g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·2·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 20/28g | 48% | — | 🏉 32' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 22/47g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 10/28g | 30% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/1g | 2/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Johnston | FWD | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/8g | 3/69g | 10% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 2/47g | 14% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lindsay | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/29g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 24/69g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 12/22g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 4/88g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Gross | FWD | no games | 1/8g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 29.5 | $1.85 | 57% | 33 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 24.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 15 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 24.5 | $1.88 | 51% | 20 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 24.5 | $1.88 | 46% | 22 ✓ |
| Colby McKercher | 22.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 12 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 21.5 | $1.88 | 51% | 20 ✓ |
| George Wardlaw ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 16 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens | 17.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 23 ✗ |
| Luke McDonald | 15.5 | $1.90 | 44% | 17 ✗ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.93 | 68% | 21 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly | 22.5 | $1.93 | 59% | 27 ✗ |
| Josh Lindsay ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 15 ✓ |
| Liam Baker ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.95 | 70% | 16 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 18.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 20 ✗ |
| Elliot Yeo ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 15 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric | 16.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 12 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — North Melbourne 1357 · West Coast Eagles 1197 · ELO difference: 160 in favour of North Melbourne

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | North Melbourne | West Coast Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1366 (best 1475) | 1144 (best 1297) | North Melbourne +222 |
| Forwards | 1144 (best 1525) | 1039 (best 1102) | North Melbourne +106 |
| Defence | 1140 (best 1286) | 1282 (best 1414) | West Coast Eagles +142 |
| Ruck | 1450 (best 1600) | 1000 (best 1000) | North Melbourne +450 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | North Melbourne |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | North Melbourne |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | North Melbourne |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — West Coast Eagles predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 187 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r14-north-melbourne-v-west-coast-eagles
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-13 10:02 UTC (latest tip update)