# Melbourne v Essendon — AFL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Melbourne 95 – 50 Essendon

_Melbourne see off Essendon._

Half time: 64 – 23 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Melbourne 49% / Essendon 51% · MCG · Sat, 13 June, 01:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Melbourne: Max Gawn (5' ×2 1st), Jacob van Rooyen (6' Tipped ⚡), Kysaiah Pickett (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ed Langdon (19'), Harry Petty (23' ×2), Trent Rivers (48'), Jake Melksham (68' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Kade Chandler (71') · Essendon: Will Setterfield (21'), Ben McKay (28'), Nate Caddy (45' Tipped ⚡), Nik Cox (64'), Hussien El Achkar (68'), Sullivan Robey (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 51% | Lost |
| Melbourne | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.4 predicted → 45 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne vs Essendon Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 June 2026, 07:32 pm · Last updated: 13 June 2026, 04:25 pm_

Melbourne 95–50 Essendon in AFL Round 14 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Melbourne led from the first bounce and the margin only ever moved one way over the course of the afternoon, even if the shape of it changed quarter to quarter. The home side was 18 points up at quarter time, 34 to 16. Then came the term that decided it: Melbourne piled on 30 points to Essendon's 7 in the second quarter, turning an 18-point lead into a 41-point buffer at half time, 64 to 23. That was the moment the game stopped being a contest.

Essendon actually won the third quarter, 20 points to 10, clawing the margin back to 31 by the three-quarter time siren, 74 to 43. It was the only period of the match they got on top, and it mattered for pride more than for the result. Melbourne shut the door in the last quarter, outscoring the Bombers 21 to 7 to finish 95 to 50, a 45-point win.

The clearance count explains a lot of it. Melbourne won that battle 33 to 29 and dominated contested possession 120 to 108, numbers that line up with what the ruck contest suggested going in. Melbourne's ruck rating sat at 1461 against Essendon's 933 before the game, about as lopsided as these things get, and the hit-out count backed it up: 35 to 30 in Melbourne's favour. Winning the ball at the source gave Melbourne first use all day.

Where the game really got away from Essendon was field position. Melbourne went inside 50 fifty-seven times to Essendon's forty, a gap of 17 entries. Essendon's defence was rated only just behind Melbourne's coming in, 1198 to 1153, but that gap in territory was too much volume to keep patching. Essendon did make Melbourne pay when they did lock it in forward, taking 12 marks inside 50 to Melbourne's 8, and they out-tackled the home side 51 to 46. Neither of those numbers moved the scoreboard much given how rarely Essendon got there in the first place.

Disposal efficiency tells the same story in miniature: Melbourne at 74.9 per cent, Essendon at 72.9. Not a massive gap on its own, but stacked on top of 366 disposals to 358 and 61 intercepts to Essendon's 66, it adds up to a side that had the ball more often and used it better when it counted.

None of this should surprise anyone who followed the form line in. Melbourne had won three of their last five, averaging 92.4 points a game, while Essendon had lost five straight, averaging 65.6. Al

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 34 | 30 | 10 | 21 | 95 |
| Essendon | 16 | 7 | 20 | 7 | 50 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Melbourne | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| **366** | Disposals | 358 |
| **120** | Contested poss. | 108 |
| **33** | Clearances | 29 |
| **57** | Inside 50s | 40 |
| **101** | Marks | 100 |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| 46 | Tackles | **51** |
| **35** | Hit-outs | 30 |
| 61 | Intercepts | **66** |
| **74.9%** | Disposal eff. | 72.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Melbourne defied the model's 51% prediction for Essendon, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.4 but the actual margin was 45 points. The game's 145 points came in 38 points lower than the predicted 183. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $4.95 (edge +30.6%) — model probability 50.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +28.5 @ $1.89 (edge +26.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 158.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 2 · Predicted total: 183

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Melbourne and Essendon. The model can't split them, landing on Essendon at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Melbourne sit 382 ELO points clear, 1498 to 1116, so the model is backing Essendon against the ratings gap. Form leans Melbourne's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Essendon.

On paper Melbourne shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Essendon, which says Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO carry the most weight. The margin model has Melbourne by 2.4, with the two sides combining for about 183. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Melbourne | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 92.4pts | Avg Score | 65.6pts |
| 87.0pts | Avg Conceded | 87.6pts |
| 5.4pts | Avg Margin | -22.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W | 92.4 |
| Essendon | R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L | 65.6 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Melbourne | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 114 · 132 | 79 · 144 |
| Goal Assists | 4.8/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 77/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.2/g | 13.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.7/g | 6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.5% | 67.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Melbourne | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 60 · 45 | 45 · 40 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.1/g | 19.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.2/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 73.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Melbourne | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 5 | 17 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 104/g | 153/g |
| Inside 50s | 9/g | 13.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.4% | 79% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.36/g (lg 4.46) +20% · Key Forwards 4.29/g (lg 3.83) +12% · Defenders 1.24/g (lg 1.12) +11%
**Who scores on Melbourne** — Defenders 1.31/g (lg 1.12) +17% · Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.51) +4% · Forwards 4.61/g (lg 4.46) +3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 20 in 13g | 14/10g (1·0·3·0·2·5·2·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 60/43g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 19 in 13g | 16/10g (1·2·0·4·2·1·2·0·1·3) | 8/7g | 115/70g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 56' |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 17 in 12g | 14/10g (4·1·2·2·0·0·2·0·0·3) | 16/9g | 153/90g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 16 in 13g | 12/10g (1·1·2·1·2·1·2·2·0·0) | 2/6g | 14/17g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 16 in 13g | 14/10g (2·1·3·1·1·1·2·2·0·1) | 1/2g | 20/19g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 13 in 13g | 9/10g (0·1·3·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 46/54g | 60% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 65/132g | 40% | — | 🏉 5' 37' |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 6 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/12g | 30/80g | 30% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·2) | 1/5g | 33/58g | 44% | — | 🏉 23' 86' |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 26/66g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Laurie | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/13g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 4 in 2g | 21/10g (4·5·1·2·1·2·0·2·4·0) | 8/8g | 102/91g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' 77' |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 6/27g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/2g | 12/26g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 8/19g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/6g | 5/67g | 22% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Luker Kentfield | KF | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/24g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/47g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/75g | 2% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 24 in 12g | 19/10g (1·2·1·3·3·2·2·2·2·1) | 4/3g | 15/16g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (0·2·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 6/5g | 11/23g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/12g | 36/84g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 6 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 15/36g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 2/6g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Sullivan Robey | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/9g (0·2·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 33% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 51/54g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 18/36g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/7g | 2/22g | 8% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Hussien El Achkar | FWD | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (1·0·2) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 67% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Dyson Sharp | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 8/47g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Nik Cox | FWD | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·3·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/18g | 20% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/14g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Tsatas | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/9g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Jones | DEF | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/4g | 16/19g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 6/34g | 14% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/13g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Farrow | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/34g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Bryan | RUC | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 5% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 80% | 32 ✗ |
| Jack Steele | 25.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Jake Bowey ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 28 ✗ |
| Tom Sparrow ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 24 ✗ |
| Max Gawn | 21.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 24 ✗ |
| Ed Langdon | 21.5 | $1.88 | 49% | 26 ✗ |
| Trent Rivers | 20.5 | $1.89 | 54% | 23 ✗ |
| Harvey Langford | 17.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 18 ✗ |
| Kade Chandler ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 15 ✓ |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | 16.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 24 ✗ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 30.5 | $1.89 | 55% | 32 ✗ |
| Archie Roberts | 26.5 | $1.88 | 32% | 12 ✓ |
| Will Setterfield ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 34 ✗ |
| Elijah Tsatas ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 85% | 22 ✓ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 74% | 23 ✓ |
| Jordan Ridley | 20.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 11 ✓ |
| Kyle Langford ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 12 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 19.5 | $1.87 | 33% | 24 ✗ |
| Sullivan Robey ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 77% | 9 ✓ |
| Archie Perkins ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.91 | 75% | 14 ✓ |
| Jacob Farrow | 16.5 | $1.83 | 49% | 22 ✗ |
| Xavier Duursma | 16.5 | $1.91 | 48% | 24 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Melbourne 1498 · Essendon 1116 · ELO difference: 382 in favour of Melbourne

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Melbourne | Essendon | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1359 (best 1359) | 1187 (best 1318) | Melbourne +172 |
| Forwards | 1027 (best 1437) | 1070 (best 1454) | Essendon +43 |
| Defence | 1153 (best 1416) | 1198 (best 1451) | Essendon +45 |
| Ruck | 1461 (best 1461) | 933 (best 933) | Melbourne +528 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Melbourne |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Melbourne |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Melbourne |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Essendon |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Essendon |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Melbourne |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Essendon predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 183 pts

**Record:** 0/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-13 06:25 UTC (latest tip update)