# Melbourne v Essendon — AFL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Melbourne v Essendon
Sat, 13 June, 01:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 14

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $4.95 (edge +30.6%) — model probability 50.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +28.5 @ $1.89 (edge +26.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 158.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 2 · Predicted total: 183

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Melbourne | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 92.4pts | Avg Score | 65.6pts |
| 87.0pts | Avg Conceded | 87.6pts |
| 5.4pts | Avg Margin | -22.0pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W | 92.4 |
| Essendon | R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L | 65.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-13 06:25 UTC (latest tip update)