# West Coast Eagles v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 71 – 77 Port Adelaide

_Port Adelaide survive a scare against West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 32 – 43 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 46% / Port Adelaide 54% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 06 June, 08:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Bo Allan (13'), Jobe Shanahan (21' Tipped ⚡), Jake Waterman (47' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Elliot Yeo (65'), Willem Duursma (80'), Tom Cole (92' ×2) · Port Adelaide: Tom Cochrane (11' 1st Tipped ⚡), Christian Moraes (17'), Joe Berry (23' ×2), Jason Horne-Francis (36' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Todd Marshall (42'), Mitch Georgiades (69' Tipped ⚡), Jordon Sweet (87')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 54% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.2 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Port Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 13, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 June 2026, 09:21 pm · Last updated: 6 June 2026, 11:12 pm_

West Coast Eagles 71–77 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 13 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

West Coast wanted to move it. Port Adelaide wanted to win it in the guts. Both got what they wanted, and Port Adelaide walked away with the six points, 77-71 at Optus Stadium.

The Eagles finished with more of everything you'd normally point to as proof of control. More disposals, 341 to 326. More inside 50s, 56 to 48. Better disposal efficiency, 71.3% to 67.8%. On paper that's the side dictating terms. On the scoreboard it's the side that lost by six.

Port Adelaide didn't need the ball as often. They needed it at the right moments, and they won it where it counts, taking clearances 39 to 34 and contested possession 132 to 127. That's the difference between moving the ball and winning the ball. West Coast had the patience and the ambition going forward, Port Adelaide had the grunt to set the terms of the contest before it ever got there.

The scoreboard tells you when that edge landed. Port Adelaide led 24-18 at quarter time and stretched it out to 43-32 at the main break, then 69-53 at three-quarter time. That's a 16-point buffer built by three-quarter time that West Coast simply couldn't chase down, managing only an 18-8 final term while trailing by 16. The Eagles were still playing the same game late, still pumping it forward, but by then Port Adelaide had banked enough breathing room to survive the pressure.

Marks inside 50 were basically even, 16 to 15, so it wasn't a case of West Coast wasting easy chances up forward. It was more that Port Adelaide's dominance at the source, aided by 41 hit-outs to 36, meant they were first to it more often than not, and their intercept count of 71 to West Coast's 78 suggests both sides were happy to turn the ball over trying to press an advantage.

The form line before the game had Port Adelaide as the shakier outfit, just one win from their last five against West Coast's two, and a poor recent average margin of minus 11.2. West Coast came in with the better defensive rating pre-match, 1151 to 1105, but it was Port Adelaide's ruck and midfield edges, 1119 to 1084 and 1106 to 1081, that showed up when it mattered.

Alphr's model had Port Adelaide as the winner at 54% and got the total about right, tipping 142 against an actual 148. The margin was where it slipped, calling West Coast to lose by 10.2 rather than the six-point gap that actually played out. Two from four on the night, with the under on 168.5 landing correctly.

West Coast's spread of the ball never really translated into the separation you'd expect from those efficiency numbers. Port Adelaide didn't need to match them kick for kick. They just needed to win it at the source and make it count when it mattered, and that's exactly the six points they walked away with.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 18 | 14 | 21 | 18 | 71 |
| Port Adelaide | 24 | 19 | 26 | 8 | 77 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **341** | Disposals | 326 |
| 127 | Contested poss. | **132** |
| 34 | Clearances | **39** |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| **87** | Marks | 82 |
| 15 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| 62 | Tackles | **63** |
| 36 | Hit-outs | **41** |
| **78** | Intercepts | 71 |
| **71.3%** | Disposal eff. | 67.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.2 but the actual margin was 6 points. Total score prediction of 142 was close to the actual 148, within 6 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 168.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.91 (edge +1.6%) — model probability 53.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles @ $1.91 (edge +10.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 10 · Predicted total: 142

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Port Adelaide are the call at 54%, but West Coast Eagles stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Port Adelaide sit 112 ELO points clear, 1329 to 1217. Form leans West Coast Eagles' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Port Adelaide.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has West Coast Eagles by 10.2, with the two sides combining for about 142. Lean Port Adelaide, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 78.6pts | Avg Score | 71.0pts |
| 78.8pts | Avg Conceded | 82.2pts |
| -0.2pts | Avg Margin | -11.2pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | R9 L · R10 W · R11 L · R12 W · R13 L | 78.6 |
| Port Adelaide | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R13 W | 71.0 |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 65 · 121 | 82 · 88 |
| Goal Assists | 2.4/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 72/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.3/g | 16.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.9/g | 9.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.1% | 68.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 41 · 41 | 35 · 30 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 151/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.3/g | 25.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.6% | 68.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 21 | 12 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 122/g | 104/g |
| Inside 50s | 12/g | 8.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.2% | 79.5% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Rucks 0.57/g (lg 0.51) +12% · Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.13) +11% · Key Forwards 3.78/g (lg 3.83) -1%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.71/g (lg 0.51) +39% · Midfielders 3.41/g (lg 2.48) +38% · Forwards 5.45/g (lg 4.46) +22%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 25 in 12g | 21/10g (4·1·1·1·1·3·3·3·1·3) | 8/5g | 105/65g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' 55' 72' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 13 in 12g | 10/10g (0·0·4·0·1·1·0·1·2·1) | 1/2g | 14/11g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' |
| – | Elliot Yeo | MID | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (2·2·1·1·1·1·0·0·3·0) | 5/14g | 26/63g | 48% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 10 in 12g | 10/10g (2·0·1·0·1·2·1·2·0·1) | 3/3g | 20/27g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Willem Duursma | MID | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 6/6g | 50% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·1) | 2/4g | 22/46g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 10/27g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Malakai Champion | FWD | 4 in 7g | 4/9g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Duff-Tytler | KF | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Johnston | FWD | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/8g | 8% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/46g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/28g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 24/68g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/68g | 6% | — | 🏉 92' 78' |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 4/87g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/39g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 27 in 11g | 24/10g (2·3·2·2·2·4·3·4·1·1) | 9/4g | 9/4g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 17 in 11g | 15/10g (2·2·1·2·1·2·2·1·1·1) | 11/6g | 6/6g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 14 in 11g | 14/10g (3·1·2·2·2·1·0·0·0·3) | 6/5g | 3/3g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' 83' 74' |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 13 in 11g | 11/10g (0·3·2·0·2·0·1·1·0·2) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 23' 52' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·3·0) | 3/3g | 1/2g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.71 AI 56% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 3/9g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/2g | 32% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/6g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 1/8g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 3/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Todd Marshall | KF | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/7g | 5/4g | 54% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 4/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Lai | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cochrane | FWD | no games | 2/3g (0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.68 AI 58% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 31 ✗ |
| Harley Reid ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.93 | 62% | 25 ✗ |
| Liam Duggan ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 18 ✓ |
| Willem Duursma | 19.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 23 ✗ |
| Elliot Yeo ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.94 | 70% | 15 ✓ |
| Liam Baker ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.96 | 69% | 21 ✗ |
| Ryan Maric | 17.5 | $1.92 | 49% | 16 ✓ |
| Reuben Ginbey | 13.5 | $1.86 | 51% | 12 ✓ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | 28.5 | $1.98 | 48% | 27 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 24.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 18 ✓ |
| Ollie Wines | 21.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 19 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 20.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 24 ✗ |
| Logan Evans ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 20 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 19.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 17 ✓ |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | 18.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 24 ✗ |
| Joe Richards | 16.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 18 ✗ |
| Christian Moraes ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 7 ✓ |
| Aliir Aliir | 14.5 | $1.78 | 39% | 12 ✓ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — West Coast Eagles 1217 · Port Adelaide 1329 · ELO difference: 112 in favour of Port Adelaide

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | West Coast Eagles | Port Adelaide | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1081 (best 1297) | 1106 (best 1563) | Port Adelaide +26 |
| Forwards | 977 (best 1297) | 998 (best 1469) | Port Adelaide +21 |
| Defence | 1151 (best 1414) | 1105 (best 1600) | West Coast Eagles +46 |
| Ruck | 1084 (best 1141) | 1119 (best 1513) | Port Adelaide +35 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Port Adelaide |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | West Coast Eagles |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Port Adelaide predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 142 pts

**Record:** 2/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-06 13:12 UTC (latest tip update)