Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.2 but the actual margin was 6 points. Total score prediction of 142 was close to the actual 148, within 6 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 168.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
46%
Port Adelaide
54%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though West Coast Eagles are far from out of this at 46%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Port Adelaide carry a 112-point ELO rating advantage (1329 vs 1217). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts West Coast Eagles by 10.2 points with a combined total of 142.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.6%
Line / Spread
West Coast Eagles @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+10.2%
Margin Band
West Coast Eagles 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 168.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | R9L R10W R11L R12W R13L older → newer | 78.6 |
Port Adelaide | R8L R9L R10L R11L R13W | 71.0 |
Avg Conceded
78.8
West Coast Eagles
82.2
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
-0.2
West Coast Eagles
-11.2
Port Adelaide
Disposals
350.0
West Coast Eagles
350.0
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
50.0
West Coast Eagles
50.0
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 142 · Line: +10.2
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