Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 55% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sydney Swans by 5.5 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The game's 206 points came in 58 points higher than the predicted 148. Sydney Swans trailed 63–71 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 104–102. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
55%
St Kilda
45%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though St Kilda are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Sydney Swans carry a 342-point ELO rating advantage (1771 vs 1429). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 5.5 points with a combined total of 148.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.24
Winner ✓
Edge
-25.7%
Line / Spread
St Kilda +27.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+22.0%
Margin Band
Sydney Swans 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 189.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | R8W R9W R10W R11L R12W older → newer | 113.4 |
St Kilda | R8W R9L R10W R11L R12L | 83.6 |
Avg Conceded
89.8
Sydney Swans
90.8
St Kilda
Avg Margin
23.6
Sydney Swans
-7.2
St Kilda
Disposals
350.0
Sydney Swans
350.0
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.0
Sydney Swans
50.0
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 148 · Line: +5.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.