# Sydney Swans v St Kilda — AFL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 104 – 102 St Kilda

_Sydney Swans surge back to sail past St Kilda._

Half time: 63 – 71 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 55% / St Kilda 45% · SCG · Sun, 07 June, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: James Rowbottom (12'), Isaac Heeney (28' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Hayden McLean (44' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Malcolm Rosas (47' ×2), Logan McDonald (57' Tipped ⚡), Chad Warner (60' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Joel Amartey (62' Tipped ⚡), Charlie Curnow (66' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jai Serong (97') · St Kilda: Liam Ryan (6' ×5 1st Tipped ⚡), Cooper Sharman (22' ×2), Max Hall (26'), Jack Sinclair (34'), Mitch Owens (35' Tipped ⚡), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (37'), Darcy Wilson (43'), Tom De Koning (49' ×2), Bradley Hill (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 55% | Won |
| St Kilda | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 June 2026, 10:16 pm · Last updated: 7 June 2026, 06:26 pm_

Sydney Swans 104–102 St Kilda in AFL Round 13 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda led for three quarters at the SCG and still walked away with nothing. That's footy for you.

The visitors were up 38-21 at quarter time and stretched it to 71-63 by half time. By the three-quarter break they still held sway, 87-81, doing it the hard way through the middle of the ground. St Kilda won the clearance count 43 to 34, comfortably the best number on their stat sheet, and it should have been enough given how the game was shaping.

It wasn't. Sydney outscored them 23 to 15 in the final term to steal it 104-102, and the stuff that actually wins games at the coalface went the Swans' way all day. Sydney had 37 hit-outs to St Kilda's 26, a lopsided number from the ruck that fed second use all match. Disposal efficiency ran 72.6% to 70.5% in Sydney's favour, and they finished with 90 marks to St Kilda's 72. When you're clean in the air and clean by hand more often than the bloke opposite, clearance count can only carry you so far.

Inside 50s told a similar story: Sydney went in 63 times to 55, and while the split on marks inside 50 was tight, 10 to 9, more entries eventually wear a defence down. St Kilda's back six had to work overtime, and by the last quarter the volume caught up with them.

For St Kilda, this was a case of doing plenty right without doing enough. The midfield battle was won. The clearance count was won. Their form line coming in was shaky, two wins from five with a WLWLL string and an average margin of minus 7.2, and against a Sydney side sitting on four wins from five and averaging 113.4 points a game, leading for three quarters was no small effort. But the ruck getting beaten up 37-26 undercut the good work in close, and Sydney's edges in marks and intercepts, 77 to 70, meant the Saints kept handing the footy back at the wrong end.

Sydney's positional ratings had them stronger in midfield (1188 to 1091), defence (1140 to 1084) and ruck (1153 to 1138) coming in, and on the day it was the ruck and defensive numbers that actually decided things, not the midfield, which St Kilda arguably won on paper. Forwards were rated near enough dead level, 1008 to 1001 in St Kilda's favour, and the shootout scoreline backs that up.

Alphr's model had Sydney by 5.5 on a combined total of 148. The Swans got there, just, winning by 2, and the model's margin read was sharp even if the total blew out by 58 points in a 104-102 track meet. St Kilda covered the 27.5-point line with ease, the 1-39 margin band call landed, and the model went 3 from 4 on the game. Not a bad return for a contest that spent three quarters looking like it belonged to the other side entirely.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 21 | 42 | 18 | 23 | 104 |
| St Kilda | 38 | 33 | 16 | 15 | 102 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| **435** | Disposals | 386 |
| **145** | Contested poss. | 144 |
| 34 | Clearances | **43** |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 55 |
| **90** | Marks | 72 |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **59** | Tackles | 53 |
| **37** | Hit-outs | 26 |
| **77** | Intercepts | 70 |
| **72.6%** | Disposal eff. | 70.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 55% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sydney Swans by 5.5 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The game's 206 points came in 58 points higher than the predicted 148. Sydney Swans trailed 63–71 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 104–102. The model went 3/4 on this match. St Kilda covered the 27.5-point line. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.24 (edge -25.7%) — model probability 55.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +27.5 @ $1.90 (edge +22.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 6 · Predicted total: 148

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sydney Swans are the call at 55%, but St Kilda stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sydney Swans sit 342 ELO points clear, 1771 to 1429. Form leans Sydney Swans' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for St Kilda.

Sydney Swans own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Sydney Swans by 5.5, with the two sides combining for about 148. Lean Sydney Swans, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sydney Swans | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 113.4pts | Avg Score | 83.6pts |
| 89.8pts | Avg Conceded | 90.8pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Margin | -7.2pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R12 W | 113.4 |
| St Kilda | R8 W · R9 L · R10 W · R11 L · R12 L | 83.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sydney Swans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | St Kilda | 88 – 107 | Sydney Swans | Sydney Swans 67% ✓ |
| 2025 | R18 | St Kilda | 87 – 92 | Sydney Swans | not priced |
| 2024 | R17 | St Kilda | 84 – 82 | Sydney Swans | not priced |
| 2023 | R13 | Sydney Swans | 66 – 80 | St Kilda | not priced |
| 2022 | R23 | St Kilda | 74 – 88 | Sydney Swans | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 126 · 82 | 100 · 113 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.3/g | 16.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.3/g | 8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.2% | 67.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 70 · 35 | 37 · 28 |
| Goal Assists | 5.5/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 159/g | 148/g |
| Inside 50s | 29.7/g | 22.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.3/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.8% | 70.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 18 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 2.5/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 140/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.8/g | 11.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.3% | 78.1% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.64/g (lg 2.5) +6% · Key Forwards 4/g (lg 3.83) +4% · Forwards 4.21/g (lg 4.44) -5%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.64/g (lg 0.51) +25% · Midfielders 2.36/g (lg 2.5) -6% · Forwards 4.07/g (lg 4.44) -8%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 31 in 11g | 28/10g (0·2·4·0·3·7·1·1·2·8) | 13/8g | 27/12g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' 101' |
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 26 in 12g | 18/10g (1·2·0·2·3·4·1·0·4·1) | 0/3g | 58/36g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| – | Logan McDonald | KF | 21 in 12g | 18/10g (3·0·1·2·0·3·3·2·2·2) | 6/4g | 57/40g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 20 in 10g | 20/10g (2·2·4·2·0·0·3·1·1·5) | 17/13g | 144/107g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' 99' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 15 in 12g | 14/10g (1·2·2·1·3·0·1·1·0·3) | 3/6g | 52/59g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' 92' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 13 in 12g | 8/10g (1·1·1·2·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 30/55g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Malcolm Rosas | FWD | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (1·1·1·2·1·0·7·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 13/8g | 58% | — | 🏉 47' 85' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 10/33g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 7 in 2g | 16/10g (0·3·1·1·0·0·2·2·3·4) | 1/3g | 50/40g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' 74' |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (0·3·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 23/125g | 32% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 15/31g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 26/71g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/20g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jai Serong | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 16% | — | 🏉 97' |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/27g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 17% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 24/66g | 24% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 16/41g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 11/86g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Harry Kyle | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/9g | 18/70g | 6% | — | — |
| – | William Edwards | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 15 in 9g | 16/10g (1·2·2·1·2·2·2·0·3·1) | 4/4g | 2/1g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 14 in 12g | 9/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·1·2·2·0) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 64% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 13 in 12g | 11/10g (0·3·1·1·2·2·0·2·0·0) | 7/5g | 1/2g | 72% | — | 🏉 22' 24' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 11 in 11g | 11/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·4·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 56% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 11 in 7g | 14/10g (3·0·0·1·1·1·3·1·1·3) | 8/6g | 7/3g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 8' 52' 73' 82' |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 9 in 12g | 9/10g (1·0·2·0·2·0·0·2·2·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 7/8g | 5/3g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 7 in 8g | 8/10g (1·0·1·3·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 42% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·2·0·2) | 3/6g | 4/4g | 30% | — | 🏉 49' 93' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 4/18g | 1/4g | 32% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·1) | 3/9g | 0/4g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 5/7g | 5/6g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/3g | 12% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.92 | 72% | 26 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney | 24.5 | $1.95 | 50% | 30 ✗ |
| Callum Mills ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.90 | 67% | 25 ✗ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 29 ✗ |
| Justin McInerney | 22.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 14 ✓ |
| Riley Bice | 21.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 25 ✗ |
| Tom McCartin ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 11 ✓ |
| Angus Sheldrick | 20.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 17 ✓ |
| Brodie Grundy | 19.5 | $1.88 | 44% | 16 ✓ |
| Sam Wicks ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 22 ✗ |
| Jai Serong | 18.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 28 ✗ |
| Matt Roberts | 18.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 14 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 16.5 | $1.87 | 41% | 27 ✗ |
| James Jordon | 14.5 | $1.85 | 36% | 19 ✗ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 28 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 26.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 32 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 22.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 24 ✗ |
| Max Hall ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 83% | 27 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 20.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Macrae | 19.5 | $1.89 | 55% | 19 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilson | 19.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 25 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager | 19.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 24 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia | 19.5 | $1.89 | 52% | 29 ✗ |
| Mattaes Phillipou ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.92 | 73% | 4 ✓ |
| Ryan Byrnes | 15.5 | $1.81 | 50% | 13 ✓ |
| Rowan Marshall | 14.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 25 ✗ |
| Mason Wood | 13.5 | $1.90 | 40% | 13 ✓ |
| Tom De Koning | 11.5 | $1.84 | 49% | 15 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sydney Swans 1771 · St Kilda 1429 · ELO difference: 342 in favour of Sydney Swans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sydney Swans | St Kilda | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1188 (best 1471) | 1091 (best 1253) | Sydney Swans +97 |
| Forwards | 1001 (best 1600) | 1008 (best 1493) | St Kilda +7 |
| Defence | 1140 (best 1534) | 1084 (best 1418) | Sydney Swans +56 |
| Ruck | 1153 (best 1513) | 1138 (best 1457) | Sydney Swans +15 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Sydney Swans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sydney Swans |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Sydney Swans predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 148 pts

**Record:** 3/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-07 08:26 UTC (latest tip update)