Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.1 but the actual margin was 124 points. The game's 186 points came in 45 points higher than the predicted 141. Fremantle led 28–82 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 124. The model went 1/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
49%
Fremantle
51%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Fremantle a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Fremantle carry a 402-point ELO rating advantage (1784 vs 1382). Recent form favours Fremantle with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 3.1 points with a combined total of 141.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
-27.5%
Line / Spread
North Melbourne +24.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+27.6%
Margin Band
North Melbourne 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 179.5 @1.89
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | R8L R9L R10L R11W R13L older → newer | 78.0 |
Fremantle | R9W R10W R11W R12W R13W | 110.8 |
Avg Conceded
126.6
North Melbourne
63.4
Fremantle
Avg Margin
-48.6
North Melbourne
47.4
Fremantle
Disposals
350.0
North Melbourne
350.0
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
North Melbourne
50.0
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Fremantle predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 141 · Line: +3.1
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