# North Melbourne v Fremantle — AFL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 31 – 155 Fremantle

_Fremantle run riot over North Melbourne._

Half time: 28 – 82 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 49% / Fremantle 51% · Hands Oval · Sat, 06 June, 02:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Cooper Trembath (12' Tipped ⚡), Nick Larkey (14' Tipped ⚡), Jack Darling (36' Tipped ⚡), George Wardlaw (38') · Fremantle: Michael Frederick (4' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Sam Switkowski (7' ×3), Josh Treacy (19' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (24' ×2), Neil Erasmus (42'), Patrick Voss (43' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (48' ×3), Hayden Young (55' ×2), Jye Amiss (57' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 51% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.1 predicted → 124 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 June 2026, 08:36 pm · Last updated: 6 June 2026, 06:56 pm_

North Melbourne 31–155 Fremantle in AFL Round 13 at Hands Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne led nothing all day, and by quarter time the gap was already ominous: 27 to 14. What happened next turned a manageable deficit into a rout. Fremantle piled on 55 points to North's 14 in the second term, turning a 13-point buffer into a 54-point canyon by half time, 82–28. The margin never came back the other way. It just kept growing, another 25-point term to North's 2 in the third, then a 48-point final quarter that took the scoreboard from ugly to absurd. Final score: Fremantle 155, North Melbourne 31.

The ruck battle set the tone before the ball was even bounced. Fremantle's ruck rating of 1165 against North's 1094 was the biggest positional gap on the sheet, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect, 36 hit-outs to 22. Winning first use of the ball at stoppages fed everything else: Fremantle took the clearance count 37–29 despite a genuinely even midfield rating (1108 to North's 1111 on paper). Whatever theoretical parity existed in the middle, Fremantle's ruck dominance made it irrelevant in practice.

From there it was a possession clinic. Fremantle finished with 383 disposals to 325, moved it at 80.9% efficiency against North's 75.4%, and took 118 marks to 101. But the number that really tells the story is inside 50s: 57 to 32. Fremantle simply had the ball in their forward line nearly twice as often, and once it got there they made it count, 22 marks inside 50 to North's 3. Three. That's not a defensive system cracking under pressure, that's a defence that never got a foothold.

North Melbourne's form line coming in read LLLWL against Fremantle's WWWWW, and the underlying numbers explained why this was always going to be a stretch. North average 126.6 points conceded across their last five, Fremantle average 110.8 scored. Multiply those tendencies out and you're already looking at something like this. Their averages in disposals, inside 50s, tackles and clearances were dead level across the last five, which says the form gap was less about effort and more about what happens once the contest starts, and today's hit-out and inside-50 numbers show exactly where it broke down.

Alphr's model backed Fremantle at 51% and got the winner right. Everything else went sideways. It had the margin at 3.1 points, not 124. It had the total at 141, not 186. That's a 1 from 4 result on this one, a rare miss on the shape of the contest even with the correct pick on paper. Ratings had Fremantle at 1784 to North's 1382, a big gap, but nowhere near big enough to forecast a 124-point demolition.

Some results are close and some just aren't. This was Fremantle's ruck and midfield edges compounding, quarter after quarter, until the scoreboard stopped resembling a contest altogether.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 14 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 31 |
| Fremantle | 27 | 55 | 25 | 48 | 155 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 325 | Disposals | **383** |
| 96 | Contested poss. | **109** |
| 29 | Clearances | **37** |
| 32 | Inside 50s | **57** |
| 101 | Marks | **118** |
| 3 | Marks inside 50 | **22** |
| 43 | Tackles | 43 |
| 22 | Hit-outs | **36** |
| 49 | Intercepts | **52** |
| 75.4% | Disposal eff. | **80.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.1 but the actual margin was 124 points. The game's 186 points came in 45 points higher than the predicted 141. Fremantle led 28–82 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 124. The model went 1/4 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.27 (edge -27.5%) — model probability 51.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +24.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 3 · Predicted total: 141

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between North Melbourne and Fremantle. The model can't split them, landing on Fremantle at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Fremantle sit 402 ELO points clear, 1784 to 1382. Form leans Fremantle's way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for North Melbourne.

Fremantle own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. The margin model has North Melbourne by 3.1, with the two sides combining for about 141. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| North Melbourne | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 78.0pts | Avg Score | 110.8pts |
| 126.6pts | Avg Conceded | 63.4pts |
| -48.6pts | Avg Margin | 47.4pts |
| 350.0 | Disposals | 350.0 |
| 50.0 | Inside 50s | 50.0 |
| 60.0 | Tackles | 60.0 |
| 35.0 | Clearances | 35.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R13 L | 78.0 |
| Fremantle | R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W | 110.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Fremantle lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R14 | North Melbourne | 67 – 73 | Fremantle |
| 2024 | R2 | North Melbourne | 76 – 102 | Fremantle |
| 2023 | R2 | Fremantle | 72 – 73 | North Melbourne |
| 2022 | R8 | Fremantle | 102 – 24 | North Melbourne |
| 2021 | R6 | Fremantle | 99 – 48 | North Melbourne |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 112 · 98 | 118 · 83 |
| Goal Assists | 4.9/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 87/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.8/g | 15/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.5/g | 10.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.8% | 72.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 27 · 43 | 47 · 29 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 150/g | 165/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.8/g | 27.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.6% | 70.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 13 | 2 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 112/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.5/g | 10.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 0.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.9% | 82.5% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Forwards 4.17/g (lg 4.45) -6% · Midfielders 2.22/g (lg 2.5) -11% · Defenders 0.98/g (lg 1.13) -13%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Key Forwards 5.14/g (lg 3.83) +34% · Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.51) +33% · Defenders 1.49/g (lg 1.13) +32%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hands Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 25 in 11g | 21/10g (6·2·2·1·2·4·1·0·1·2) | 10/5g | 0/1g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 22 in 11g | 21/10g (2·1·2·1·6·2·1·1·3·2) | 2/4g | 3/1g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 78% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 16 in 11g | 13/10g (0·2·3·2·3·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 15 in 11g | 14/10g (0·3·3·0·2·0·3·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·3·2·1·3) | 50/25g | 0/1g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 8 in 11g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 6/6g | 2/1g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1) | 4/10g | 2/1g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 45% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 14/17g | 1/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Dawson | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zac Fisher | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/8g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 30 in 12g | 29/10g (2·4·2·5·3·0·3·2·4·4) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' 76' |
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 28 in 12g | 22/10g (4·2·0·1·3·3·2·2·2·3) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 46' 83' 78' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 20 in 11g | 20/10g (1·1·2·0·3·0·1·5·3·4) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 79% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' 65' 67' 93' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 16 in 12g | 10/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·1·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 13 in 12g | 9/10g (0·1·1·1·2·1·0·2·1·0) | 7/8g | 0/0g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 9 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0·1) | 5/6g | 0/0g | 68% | — | 🏉 48' 58' 80' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 8 in 7g | 10/10g (0·2·0·0·2·1·3·1·1·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' 89' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 7 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 61% | — | 🏉 24' 76' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1·1) | 5/4g | 0/0g | 46% | — | 🏉 7' 40' 70' |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 5 in 5g | 8/10g (0·3·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 55' 87' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/6g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.83 | 72% | 27 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 24.5 | $1.92 | 61% | 20 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 23.5 | $1.82 | 64% | 27 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 23.5 | $1.92 | 58% | 26 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.92 | 67% | 19 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 20.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 17 ✓ |
| George Wardlaw ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 11 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens | 16.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 22 ✗ |
| Tristan Xerri | 16.5 | $1.90 | 43% | 12 ✓ |
| Luke McDonald | 14.5 | $1.94 | 52% | 16 ✗ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 65% | 30 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.85 | 64% | 27 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.93 | 67% | 23 ✗ |
| Hayden Young ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 23 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark | 19.5 | $1.93 | 51% | 19 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 18.5 | $1.91 | 52% | 24 ✗ |
| Karl Worner ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.89 | 68% | 14 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.91 | 68% | 23 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson | 16.5 | $1.94 | 52% | 19 ✗ |
| Judd McVee | 14.5 | $1.84 | 51% | 16 ✗ |
| Josh Treacy | 12.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 13 ✗ |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — North Melbourne 1382 · Fremantle 1784 · ELO difference: 402 in favour of Fremantle

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | North Melbourne | Fremantle | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midfield | 1111 (best 1475) | 1108 (best 1515) | North Melbourne +3 |
| Forwards | 996 (best 1525) | 1017 (best 1397) | Fremantle +21 |
| Defence | 1080 (best 1302) | 1120 (best 1377) | Fremantle +40 |
| Ruck | 1094 (best 1600) | 1165 (best 1341) | Fremantle +71 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Fremantle |
| 2 | Midfield ELO | 11.0% | — |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Fremantle |
| 4 | Forward Line ELO | 9.0% | Fremantle |
| 5 | Defensive ELO | 8.0% | Fremantle |
| 6 | Scoring Form | 8.0% | Fremantle |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | North Melbourne |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Fremantle predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 141 pts

**Record:** 1/4 predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-06 08:56 UTC (latest tip update)